M20:11
这个问题是关于 derivatives 的。
The question is about derivatives.
我们这个房间里就有一位作者，写过关于这个主题你能读到的最好的东西。
We have in this room the author of the best thing you can read on that.
大概一个月前，Fortune 上有一篇 Carol Loomis 写的关于 derivatives 的文章，毫无疑问，那是这方面写得最好的一篇。
There was an article in Fortune about a month ago or so by Carol Loomis on derivatives, and far and away it's the best article that's been written.
我们这个房间里还有一些来自 Salomon、做 derivatives 业务的人，这是个范围非常广的话题。
We also have some people in the room that do business in derivatives from Salomon, and it's a very broad subject.
就像我们去年说的，我想当时有人问，九十年代最大的金融故事可能会是什么，我们说我们当然不知道，但如果非要选一个题目的话，那很可能就是 derivatives，因为它们很容易让人使用不寻常规模的 leverage，而且有时候连参与其中的人自己都没有完全搞明白。
As we said last year, I think someone asked what might be the big financial story of the '90s, and we said we obviously don't know, but that if we had to pick a topic, it could well be derivatives, because they lend themselves to the use of unusual amounts of leverage, and they are sometimes not completely understood by the people involved.
只要你把无知和借来的钱放在一起，就很可能出现一些相当惊人的后果，尤其是当数字变得很大的时候。
And anytime you combine ignorance and borrowed money, you can get some pretty interesting consequences, and particularly when the numbers get big.
这一点你们当然也已经看到了。
And you've seen that, of course.
对。
Yes.
最近就体现在 Procter & Gamble 最近那次公告上。
Recently with the recent Procter & Gamble announcement.
现在，我不了解 P&G 那些 derivatives 的细节，但至少根据媒体报道，我理解的是，最开始只是 interest rate swaps，结果最后变成了 P&G 去写卖权，标的是大量的美国债券，还有我想，另一个国家的债券。
Now, I don't know the details of the P&G derivatives, but I understand, at least from press reports, that what started out as interest rate swaps ended up with P&G writing puts on large quantities of U.S. and, I think, one other country's bonds.
一个公司如果从卖肥皂做到去给债券写卖权，那可是个很大的跨越。
And anytime you go from selling soap to writing puts on bonds, you've made a big jump.
而能够借到巨额资金，再加上有机会在极短时间内变得非常富有或者非常贫穷，这在历史上往往都是某个时点上惹出麻烦的配方。
And the ability to borrow enormous amounts of money, combined with the chance to get either very rich or very poor very quickly, has historically been a recipe for trouble at some point.
而且 derivatives 不会消失。
And derivatives are not going to go away.
它们有实际用途，诸如此类。
They serve useful purposes and all of that.
我的意思是说，它确实有那样的潜在风险。
Saying that it has that potential.
而我们也已经看到了一点这种情况。
And we've seen a little bit of that.
我想不出我们做过什么事是那种会——Charlie，你能想到我们有任何什么业务是直接接近 derivatives 的吗？
I can't think of anything that we've done that would—can you think of anything we do that approaches derivatives, Charlie, directly?