M20:42
我其实不太觉得——如果真要说的话——我觉得 Berkshire 还有别的东西可能更值得模仿，但那些也同样没人模仿。
I don't really think— if there were— I think there are other things that are probably better to copy about Berkshire, but they don't get copied either.
对我来说一直很有意思的一点是，很少有人——大家都读 Graham，也并不是真的不同意他，他们只是不喜欢照他说的去做，因为从某种意义上说，那样看起来不够诱人。
It was always interesting to me how few people— everybody read Graham, and they didn't really disagree with him, they just didn't like following him because it didn't, it didn't promise enough in a sense.
我的意思是，人们——人们真的想要很快就看到结果。
I mean, people, people really wanted something very quickly.
至于不发股息，我们不发股息，是因为我们认为，我们每留存一块钱，都能把它变成超过一块钱的市场价值。
In terms of not paying dividends, we don't pay dividends because we think we can turn every dollar we retain into more than a dollar of market value.
我是说，我们保留你们资金的唯一理由，就是这笔钱放在我们手里，比还给你们更值钱。
I mean, the only reason for us to keep your money is if it becomes worth more by us keeping it than it would be worth if we gave it to you.
如果我们每保留一块钱，就能创造出超过一块钱的市场价值，那你们就更划算——不管你是想通过卖出一点股票把这块钱取出来，还是继续把它留在公司里。
And if we can create more than a dollar of market value for every dollar we keep, you're better off whether you want to take that dollar out by selling a little piece of your stock or whether you continue to leave it in.
这就是检验标准。
That's the test.
如果我们得出结论，认为自己做不到这一点——而且我们在某个时候也可能会得出这样的结论——那我们就应该把钱分配给你们。
If we come to the conclusion that we can't do that— and we could come to the conclusion sometime— then we should distribute it to you.
有意思的是，我们有些业务——比如说 See's Candies 就是一个例子——我们没办法在 See's Candy Company 内部把 See's 产生的所有现金都聪明地用掉。
The interesting thing is we're in certain businesses, for example, See's Candies being one, we don't have a way to intelligently use all of the money that See's generates within the See's Candy Company.
所以如果 See's 是一家独立运营的公司，它会发非常高的股息，不是因为它——你知道——单纯有什么固定的分红政策。
So if See's were a standalone company, it would pay very large dividends, not because it, you know, just had some dividend-paying policy.
而只是因为，在这个例子里，每年三千万美元，我们没办法聪明地把这笔钱用于扩张那项业务。
It would be simply because we wouldn't have a way of using, in this case, $30 million a year intelligently in expanding that business.
The Buffalo News 也是一样。
The Buffalo News is the same way.
在那个具体业务内部，我们也没有办法聪明地运用它自己产生出来的那些钱。
We don't have a way of using money within that specific business intelligently to use the money that it generates.
我们希望，放在整个 Berkshire Hathaway 的整体框架里，我们能够聪明地使用旗下这些公司合计为我们创造出来的资金。
We hope that in the overall Berkshire Hathaway scheme of things, that we can intelligently use the money that the companies in aggregate generate for us.
而我们认为，到目前为止我们确实做到了，而且我们觉得，继续做到这一点的前景也相当不错。
And we think so far we have, and we think the prospects are reasonably good that we can continue to do that.
但股息政策，实际上应该按照这个标准来决定，同时也要把股票回购的可能性考虑进去。
But dividend policy should really be determined by that criteria, also bearing in mind the possibilities of repurchase of stock too.
但归根结底，还是要看，留在企业里的一块钱，对股东来说，是不是比发出去的一块钱更值钱。
But they should be determined by whether a dollar left in the business is worth more to the shareholder than a dollar paid out.
像 Coca-Cola 这样的公司，你知道，如果 Coca-Cola 不发股息，而只是回购股票、发展它的 bottling system，再去做它后来做的那些事，股东的处境很可能还会更好。
Someplace like Coca-Cola, you know, if Coca-Cola had paid no dividends and simply repurchased shares and developed the bottling system and done the things that they have, the shareholders probably would have been even better off.
就算按照现在这样，他们已经获益非常惊人了，但很可能还是会比在现有这套股息政策下过得更好。
They've been sensationally well off as it is, but they probably would have been even better off than they have been with the dividend policy they have had.
Gillette、Disney，还有这一类拥有绝佳机会的公司，也是一样的道理。
And that's true for Gillette and Disney and companies of that sort that have got these terrific opportunities.
把资本用在企业内部，或者回购一家这种根本无法被替代的公司的股票。
To use capital within the business or to repurchase shares of a company that simply can't be replaced.
如果这通常是资本的最佳用途，那它很可能就比发股息更好。
If that usually is the best use of capital, it's probably better than dividends.
而且，你知道，Martin，我们也写过一些这方面的东西，不过——人们通常还是会继续做他们一直在做的事。
And, you know, we have written some about that, Martin, but it— people usually keep doing what they've been doing.
这——他们很难改变。
It's— they're hard to change.