M20:21
嗯，这个问题问得好。
Well, that's a good question.
Abe Briloff 以前常给 Barron's 写稿。
And Abe Briloff used to write for Barron's.
他经常写各种会计上的花招，Barron's 后来也多少延续了这方面的内容。
Quite frequently on various accounting machinations, and Barron's has continued that somewhat.
不过你说得对，确实有些人会用会计手法描绘出一幅和经济现实相差很远的图景，有时候甚至是会计规则本身就会导致这种情况。
But you're right that there are people out there who will try to paint pictures with accounting that are something far from economic reality, and sometimes the rules of accounting themselves lead to that.
我想说的是，如果一家公司的会计让你看糊涂了，那我一般就会直接算了。
I would say that when the accounting confuses you, I would just tend to forget about it.
就别碰这家公司。
As a company.
我的意思是，这很可能——很可能就是故意的；而且不管怎么说，你都不该靠近它。
I mean, it's probably—it may well be intentional, and in any event, you don't want to go near it.
凡是那些我们觉得会计处理可疑的公司，我们从来没有在它们身上取得过什么特别好的投资结果。
We have never had any great investment results from companies whose accounting we regarded as suspect.
我一个都想不出来。
I can't think of one.
你能想到吗，Charlie？
Can you, Charlie?
不能。
No.
这是个非常糟糕的信号。
It's a very bad sign.
我有一次做空就属于这种情况，而且结果还不错。
I made a short sale once that worked out well in a case like that.
说到底——会计，会计其实能让你对管理层的品格看出很多东西。
It really—accounting, accounting can be a—accounting can offer you a lot of insight into the character of management.
而且我会说，你知道，这种糟糕的会计处理，你其实会碰到相当不少。
And I would say there's a lot, you know, there's a—you run into a fair amount of bad accounting.
我以前把它叫做 creative accounting，不过你——要是监管允许的话，你可能还会碰到更多；但有些公司确实已经把他们的审计师逼得很远了，所以凡是看起来让你起疑的东西，我都会非常怀疑。
I used to call it creative accounting, but you—and you'd probably run into a lot more if it was allowed, but some companies have been able to push their auditors pretty far, and I would be very skeptical of anything that looks suspicious to you.
我记得有人写过一两篇这方面的东西，不过我一下想不起来是发表在哪里了。里面会谈到一些问题，比如说——很明显，如果某些 prepaid expense、deferred asset 这类科目开始可疑地越积越高，或者 inventory 看起来和销售对不上，尤其是从趋势上看也不对劲，诸如此类。
I think there have been a couple of things written, but I can't think of where they've appeared, where people talk about the questions of, you know, what—obviously, if some prepaid expense, deferred asset accounts start building up suspiciously high, and inventories look out of line, you know, with sales and particularly the trend of them and all that.
碰到这样的公司，你就得多看两遍。
You want to look twice at companies like that.
像 life insurance 这个行业，你知道，我们经常会在里面看到比较弱的会计处理。
Life insurance, you know, frequently that, you know, we see weak accounting in.
当你的产品收入和费用在短期内没法按接近现金的方式去匹配时，人们就有机会在数字上动手脚。
You can—when you don't have a product where revenues and expenses are being matched up on something close to cash in the short term, you have the opportunity for people playing games with numbers.
有些人已经非常擅长干这个了，他们有时候会制造出持续很久的股价操纵或者包装推广的套路，长期下来让管理层或者策划这些东西的人赚得盆满钵满，而代价是公众来承担。
And some people have learned how to do that very well, and they've sometimes created long-lasting stock manipulation or promotion schemes that have enriched the managers or the creators of it at the expense of the public over time.
只要你对会计产生怀疑，就直接看下一家公司。
If you ever get suspicious about accounting, just go on to the next company.
四区。
Zone 4.