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普通人最好的赚钱方式是什么

47 段 · 3 位说话人 · 原片 4:59
M1
M10:00

Buffett 先生,Munger 先生,谢谢你们回答我的问题。

Mr. Buffett and Mr. Munger, thank you for taking my question.

我叫 Feroz Qayyum,来自加拿大的 Mississauga,现在住在 New York。

My name is Feroz Qayyum, and I'm from Mississauga in Canada and now live in New York.

我的问题是,怎么样才能最好地效仿你们的成功,建立起自己的能力圈。

My question is how to best emulate your success in building your circle of competence.

考虑到现在的投资环境比你们刚开始的时候竞争激烈得多,如果让你们现在来建立自己的能力圈,你们会不会有什么不一样的做法?

Given the environment today in investing is a lot more competitive than when you started out, what would you do differently, if anything at all, when building your circle?

你们还会建立一个非常广泛的通才型框架吗,还是会把重点放得更深但更窄一些,比如聚焦某些行业、市场,甚至某一个国家?

Would you still build a very broad generalist framework, or would you build a much deeper but narrower focus, say, on industries, markets, or even a country?

如果会的话,哪些会让你们感兴趣?

And if so, which ones would interest you?

谢谢。

Thank you.
M2
M20:42

对,你说得没错,现在确实比我刚开始的时候竞争激烈多了。

Yeah, well, you're right, it is much more competitive now than when I started.

而且,呃,我刚开始那会儿,我真的可以拿着 Moody's Industrial Manual、Moody's Banks and Finance Manual,一页一页地翻过去,至少把每家公司都过一遍眼,想想哪些公司值得我进一步研究。

And you would, uh, when I started, I literally could take the Moody's Industrial Manual, the Moody's Banks and Finance Manual, and I could go through page by page and at least run my eyes over every company and think about which ones I might think more about.

这很重要。

It's important.

我就是会做大量、大量的阅读。

I would just do a lot, a whole lot of reading.

我会尽可能去了解尽可能多的企业,然后努力弄清楚,哪些企业是我确实拥有一些重要的知识和理解,而且这种理解很可能跟绝大多数竞争对手都不一样;我也会努力弄清楚,哪些企业是我根本不懂的。然后我会一方面尽量把自己的能力圈扩大到最大,另一方面也尽量现实地判断,我能力圈的边界到底在哪里。

I'd try and learn as much as I could about as many businesses, and I would try to figure out which ones I really had some important knowledge and understanding that was probably different than overwhelmingly most of my competitors, and I would also try and figure out which ones I didn't understand, and I would focus on having as big a circle as I could have, and also focus on being as realistic as I could about where the perimeters of my circle of competence were.

一九五一年一月我见到 Lorimer Davidson 的时候,我就知道我能搞懂保险。

I knew when I met Lorimer Davidson in January of 1951, I could get insurance.

我是说,那天星期六我跟他待了三四个小时,他讲的东西对我来说实在太有道理了。

I mean, what he said made so much sense to me in the 3 or 4 hours I spent with him on that Saturday.

所以我就深入钻研这个领域,而我,我,我确实能理解它。

So I dug into it, and I, I, I could understand it.

我的脑子在这方面很好使。

My mind worked well in that respect.

但我不觉得自己能搞懂零售业。

I didn't think I could understand retailing.

我唯一做过的,也就是在 Charlie 待过的那家杂货店工作过,而我们俩都没真正从零售业里学到太多东西,除了知道那活儿比我们喜欢的要辛苦得多。

All I'd done was work for the same grocery store that Charlie had, and neither one of us learned that much about retailing except it was harder work than we liked.

你也得做同样的事情,只不过你现在面对的竞争要大得多。

And you've got to do the same thing, and you've got way more competition now.

但是,如果你哪怕只是在一个相对小的领域里,比别人懂得更多,而且你不会有那种非得频繁出手的冲动,你就等到胜算明显站在你这边的时候再行动。

But if you get to know even about a relatively small area more than other people do, and you don't feel a compulsion to act too often, you just wait till the odds are strongly in your favor.

这依然是个非常有意思的游戏。

It's still a very interesting game.

只是它比以前更难了。

It's harder than it used to be.

Charlie?

Charlie?
M3
M32:50

嗯,我觉得,对绝大多数人来说,正确的策略是专业化。

Well, I think the right strategy for the great mass of humanity is to specialize.

没人会想找一个一半是 proctologist、一半是 dentist 的医生看病,你懂吧。

Nobody wants to go to a doctor that's half proctologist and half dentist, you know.

所以,嗯,普通人通常要想成功,办法就是做窄而深的专业化。

And, and, well, and so the ordinary way to succeed is to narrowly specialize.

Warren 和我其实并不是这么做的,我们没这么做,是因为我们更喜欢另一种活动方式,但我不觉得我们能把这个推荐给别人。

Warren and I really didn't do that, and we didn't because we preferred the other type of activity, but I don't think we can recommend it to other people.
M2
M23:23

对,在我们那个年代,更像是在寻宝,而且宝藏还挺容易看出来。

Yeah, it was a little more treasure hunting in our day, and it was easy to spot the treasure.
M3
M33:27

我们确实把这条路走通了,但这里面也带了点运气。

We made it work, but it was kind of a lucky thing.

对,这不是一条标准的路径。

Yeah, it's not the standard way to go.
M2
M23:34

这个生意,至少按我当时最好的理解,实际上就是保险。

The business, at least as I best understood, actually was insurance.

我的意思是,我——而且我当时几乎没什么竞争。

I mean, I— and I had very little competition.

而且,你知道,如果我去 Pennsylvania 的 Harrisburg 那个保险管理部门,我记得有一次我还专门开车过去,就是为了查一家 Pennsylvania 的公司。

And, you know, I would— if I went to the insurance department in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, I remember one time I drove there just to check on some Pennsylvania company.

那还是你没法在网上查到这么多信息的年代。

And this is when you couldn't get all this information on the internet.

我进去之后问了一家公司的情况,那个人就说,你是第一个来问这家公司的。

And I went in and I asked about some company, and the guy said, you're the first one that's ever asked about that company.

而且当时关注这些的人并不多。

And there wasn't a lot.

我还去过 Houston Street 上那个 Standard & Poor's 的图书馆,我想他们是这么叫的,我会去那儿查各种很冷门的信息。

I went over to the Standard & Poor's library on Houston Street, I guess they call it, and I would go up there and ask for all this obscure information.

那儿根本没什么人坐着。

There wasn't anybody sitting around there.

他们摆了一堆桌子,你可以坐在那里翻资料、查东西。

They had a bunch of tables that you could sit and examine things through.

所以,那时候竞争更少。

So, there was less competition.

但如果你哪怕只有一件事特别懂,到了某个时候,它也会给你带来优势。

But if you know even one thing very well, it'll give you an edge at some point.

你知道,就像 IBM 的 Tom Watson Sr. 说的,我不是什么天才,但我在某些点上很聪明,而且我就一直待在那些点上。

You know, it's what Tom Watson Sr. said at IBM, you know, I'm no genius, but I'm smart in spots, and I stay around those spots.

这基本上就是 Charlie 和我一直在努力做的事,我觉得你大概也可以这么做,不过你会发现那些点——

And that's basically what Charlie and I try and do, and I think that's probably what you can do, but you'll find that those spots—.
M3
M34:50

对,我们在好几个领域都是这么干的。

Yeah, we did it in several fields.

这很难。

That's hard.
M2
M24:56

而且我们也有过几次被狠狠干趴下的时候。

And we got our head handed to us a few times too.

对。

Yeah.