M20:59
嗯，关于第二点，其实并不对。
Yeah, well, on the second point, that really isn't correct.
我们有一些持仓你其实看不到，因为我们上一份报告里只列了超过六亿美元的那些。
We have positions which you don't even see because we only listed the ones above $600 million in the last report.
很显然，那些看不到的都是更小的仓位。
And obviously those are all smaller positions.
有时候是因为那些公司本身规模比较小，我们没法投进去那么多钱。
Sometimes that's because they're smaller companies and we couldn't get that much money in.
有时候是因为我们买了之后，价格涨上去了。
Sometimes it's because the prices moved up after we bought them.
有时候甚至是因为我们可能正在逐步卖出那个仓位。
Sometimes it's because we may be selling the position down even.
不过，总之，我们没有——这里头没什么神奇的公式。
But so we have no—there's nothing magic.
对那些我们非常有把握的东西，我们就喜欢投很多钱进去。
We like to put a lot of money in things that we feel strongly about.
这也就回到分散投资这个问题了。
And that gets back to the diversification question.
我们认为，通常大家那种分散投资的做法，对于真正知道自己在干什么的人来说，意义非常小。
We think diversification is, as practiced generally, makes very little sense for anyone that knows what they're doing.
分散投资，本质上是对无知的一种保护。
Diversification is a protection against ignorance.
我的意思是，如果你想确保自己相对市场不会出什么大问题，那你就把所有东西都买一点。
I mean, if you want to make sure that nothing bad happens to you relative to the market, you own everything.
这也没什么不对。
There's nothing wrong with that.
我是说，对于一个觉得自己并不懂得怎么分析企业的人来说，这完全是一种很稳妥、很合理的方法。
I mean, that is a perfectly sound approach for somebody who does not feel they know how to analyze businesses.
但如果你知道怎么分析企业、怎么给企业估值，那还去持有五十只、四十只，甚至大概三十只股票，就很荒唐了，因为真正出色的企业并没有那么多，
If you know how to analyze businesses and value businesses, it's crazy to own 50 stocks or 40 stocks or 30 stocks, probably, because there aren't that many wonderful businesses
而且很可能也没有那么多是一个普通人真正能看得懂的。
that are understandable to a single human being in all likelihood.
明明有一家特别特别优秀的企业，你却还要把钱投到你吸引力排序里排在第三十或者第三十五名的标的上，而不是继续把更多钱投到第一名上，这在 Charlie 和我看来，简直是疯狂。
And to have some super wonderful business and then put money in number 30 or 35 on your list of attractiveness and forego putting more money into number 1 just strikes Charlie and me as madness.
这是一种传统做法，而且你知道，如果你追求的只是平均水平，它也许还能保住你的工作，但在我们看来，这等于是在承认，你其实并不真正了解你持有的那些企业。
And it's conventional practice and it may, you know, if all you have to achieve is average, it may preserve your job, but it's a confession in our view that you don't really understand the businesses that you own.
你知道，就我个人投资组合来说，我就持有一只股票，不过那是一家我了解的企业，这让我非常安心。
You know, I base— I mean, on a personal portfolio basis, you know, I own one stock, you know, but it's a business I know and it leaves me very comfortable.
所以，你知道，难道我非得持有二十八只股票，才能算是有了合适的分散化吗？
So, you know, do I need to own 28 stocks in order to, you know, have proper diversification, you know?
那太荒唐了。
It'd be nonsense.
而且在 Berkshire 内部，我都能挑出我们其中三项业务；如果那就是我们唯一拥有的业务，而且我把所有钱都放在 Berkshire 里，我也会非常满意。
And within Berkshire, I could pick out 3 of our businesses and I would, I would be very happy if they were the only businesses we owned and I had all my money in Berkshire.
当然，我很喜欢这样一个事实：我们能找到不止这些，而且还在不断增加；但光是三家非常棒的企业，就已经足够让你这辈子过得非常好了，甚至绰绰有余。
Now, I love it, the fact that we can find more than that and that we keep adding to it, but 3 wonderful businesses is more than, it's more than you need in this life to do very well.
而一般人是碰不到这种机会的。
And the average person isn't going to run into that.
我的意思是，如果你看看这个国家里那些财富是怎么建立起来的，它们可不是靠一个包含五十家公司的投资组合建立的。
I mean, if you look at how the fortunes were built in this country, they weren't built out of a portfolio of 50 companies.
它们是由某个人识别出一家非常棒的企业，然后建立起来的。
They were built by someone who identified a wonderful business.
Coca-Cola 就是个很好的例子。
Coca-Cola is a great example.
很多财富都是建立在它上面的。
A lot of fortunes have been built on that.
而且并不存在五十个 Coca-Cola。
And there aren't 50 Coca-Colas.
连二十个都没有。
There aren't 20.
如果真有，那当然很好。
If there were, it'd be fine.
那我们大家都可以跑去在那一群公司里疯狂分散投资，得到的结果也会和持有那家真正卓越的公司差不多。
We could all go out and diversify like crazy among that group and get results that would be equal to owning the really wonderful one.
但现实是，你找不到。
But you're not going to find it.
而事实是，你也不需要那么多。
And the truth is, you don't need it.
我的意思是，如果你拥有一家真正卓越的企业，长期来看，它对经济波动和竞争都有很强的防护能力。
I mean, if you have a really wonderful business, it's very well protected against the vicissitudes of the economy over time and competition.
我的意思是，我们说的是那种能够抵御有效竞争的企业。
I mean, you know, we're talking about businesses that are resistant to effective competition.
而拥有三家这样的企业，会比拥有一百家普通企业更好。
And 3 of those will be better than 100 average businesses.
顺带一提，也会更安全。
And they'll be safer, incidentally.
我的意思是，持有三家容易识别的卓越企业，风险比持有五十家知名的大企业还要小。
I mean, there is less risk in owning 3 easy-to-identify wonderful businesses than there is in owning 50 well-known big businesses.
而这些年来，金融课上关于这个问题教了些什么，真是让人惊讶。
And it's amazing what has been taught over the years in finance classes about that.
不过——
But—.