1999年股东大会 · 巴芒谈对投资医药行业的看法 — 文稿

M10:00

我叫 McCall Bang。

My name is McCall Bang.

我来自 Central Florida。

I'm from Central Florida.

那边天气很好，阳光很足。

It's nice and sunny there.

不过现在这边天气也还不错。

It's not so bad here either now.

我的问题是，去年有人问过关于 pharmaceutical companies，还有 baby boomers 老龄化之类的问题。

My question was, last year somebody asked about the pharmaceutical companies and the aging baby boomers, etc.

你当时说，很难单独挑出某一家具体公司，我记得 Munger 先生很简洁地说了一句，我们在这件事上搞砸了。

And you said it was difficult to single out individual companies, and I believe Mr. Munger succinctly said that we blew it on that one.

我想问的是，九二、九三年发生的那件事，一个未经选举产生的政客，某种程度上是不是让整个行业在那段时间都受到了压制。

I wonder if what happened in '92, '93 with an unelected politician kind of dampened the whole industry for a period there.

这件事会不会让你们对未来投资这个领域有一点犹豫？这是不是纯粹属于无法预知的事？或者说，考虑到我们今天看到的这么多政治因素，会不会让你对这个领域的未来有些担心？

If that plays a part in giving you a little ambivalence about investing in that area for the future, is that simply an unknowable, or with all the, you know, a lot of the political things we see here today, if that causes you some concern about, you know, the future of that area?

我知道你们担心公司为了应对监管之类的问题，不得不在 Washington 花很多钱。

I know that you're concerned about the growth of companies having to spend money in Washington with regulation, et cetera.

所以我想具体听听你的看法：你对 pharmaceutical companies 会不会有些犹豫，特别是因为未来监管这方面的原因？

So I'd like to know your thoughts, specifically, if you have some ambivalence because of future regulation with pharmaceutical companies.

M21:11

嗯，如果我们能以低于市场平均的估值，买入一组领先的 pharmaceutical companies，我觉得我们马上就会下手。

Well, if we could buy a group of leading pharmaceutical companies at a below-market multiple, I think we'd do it in a second.

就像你提到的，在一九九三年前后那段时间，我们其实是有这个机会的，但我们没买。

And we had the opportunity to do that in that 1993 period, as you mentioned, and we didn't do it.

所以我们的确是搞砸了。

So we did blow it.

整体来看，这个行业表现得非常好，当然也确实面临你刚才列举的那些威胁，比如监管之类的。

As a whole, it has done very well, and it has threats that you enumerated in terms of regulation and so on.

但是你知道，每个行业都会有一些问题，而 pharmaceutical industry 本身有足够多的优势，所以你提到的那些威胁，在我看来，不应该让这些 securities 以被压低的估值倍数来交易，但当时它们确实是那样。

But, you know, every industry has some problems, and the pharmaceutical industry has enough going for it that the threats you named should not cause—in my view, should not cause the securities to sell at a depressed multiple, which they did.

不过现在情况已经不是那样了。

Now, that's no longer the circumstance.

我们不喜欢现在这个价格，你知道，我们现在不会去买它们，不过至少在我看来，它们整体上还是非常好的生意。

We don't like, you know, we're not going to buy them at present prices, but we, you know, at least I think they're very, you know, as a group, they're good businesses.

不过我确实觉得，要挑出谁会胜出是很难的。

I do think it's very hard to pick out, uh, the winner, you know.

所以如果我真要买，我会买一篮子领先公司，但我不会按现在这个价格买。

So if I did buy them, I would buy them, I would buy a group of the leading companies, but I wouldn't be buying them at these prices.

Charlie？

Charlie?

M32:13

对，我会说，pharmaceutical industry 对客户带来的好处，几乎超过了美国其他任何一个行业。

Yeah, I would argue that the pharmaceutical industry has done more good for the customers than almost any other industry in America.

我这一生里看到的那些发明，真是太了不起了，先是各种 antibiotics，它们避免了那么多死亡，也避免了那么多家庭悲剧。

It's just fabulous what's been invented in my lifetime, starting with all the antibiotics that have prevented so much death and so much family tragedy.

我觉得，这个国家建立这样一种制度是非常明智的，在这个制度下，pharmaceutical companies 可以赚到几乎多得惊人的钱。

And I think the country has been very wise to have a system where the pharmaceutical companies can make almost obscene amounts of money.

我觉得，pharmaceutical industry 的高额利润让我们所有人都受益了。

I think we've all been well served by the large profits in the pharmaceutical industry.

八区？

Zone 8?