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1997年股东大会 · 巴菲特:股市下跌50%不会困扰我,还会让我很兴奋

17 段 · 2 位说话人 · 原片 2:11
M1
M10:00

如果,如果 Mr. Market 进入一个低迷阶段,而 Berkshire Hathaway 每股 Class A 股对应账面价值里的投资部分大概是两万八千美元,那 Berkshire Hathaway 的股价就会比现在低很多。

If, if Mr. Market goes in a depressed phase, that Berkshire Hathaway has got an investment portion of its book value about $28,000 per Class A share, that would put the Berkshire Hathaway share much lower than what it is now.

Berkshire Hathaway 会不会考虑回购自己的股票?或者过去有没有这么做过?还是说这根本不在考虑范围内?

Would Berkshire Hathaway consider buying back its own shares, or has it done so in the past, or is it out of the question?
M2
M20:26

如果市场崩了,Berkshire 的股价也会跟着崩。

If the market went in the tank, Berkshire stock would go in the tank too.

所以,这个房间里任何持有这只股票的人,都不应该觉得股价跌百分之五十难以接受;如果不只是能接受的话,甚至还应该感到挺兴奋。

And so there shouldn't be anybody in this room that owns the stock that would not find it palatable, if not become positively enthusiastic about the stock going down 50%.

这不会困扰 Charlie,也不会困扰我,因为那样一来,对于我们手上得到的任何资本,我们都有非常聪明的用法,而且在这个过程中我们还会不断地产生资本。

It would not bother Charlie, it wouldn't bother me, because we would have very intelligent things then to do with whatever capital we came into, and we would be generating capital as we went along.

我们不会卖掉我们的 Coke,不会卖掉我们的 Gillette,也不会卖掉我们的那些企业。

We wouldn't have sold our Coke, we wouldn't have sold our Gillette, we wouldn't have sold our businesses.

所以我们大部分资本都会一路跟着跌下去,但至少我们会有一些很聪明的事情可以拿这些钱去做。

So most of our capital would have ridden that down, but at least we would have intelligent things to do with the money.

其中一个聪明的做法,可能就是回购我们自己的股票,但那就意味着,和我们能找到的其他所有机会相比,我们自己的股票相对于内在价值更便宜。

One of the intelligent things possibly could be to buy in our own stock, but that would imply that our own stock was cheaper relative to value than anything else we could find among possible opportunities.

而更大的可能是,我们能找到更有吸引力的东西。

And the chances are we could find things that were more attractive.

回到一九七三年或一九七四年,当时我们以远低于其真实价值的价格买入 Washington Post,Berkshire 的股票那时候也许也很便宜,但没有 Washington Post 那么便宜。

Back in 1973 or '74, when we were buying Washington Post at a fraction of what it was worth, Berkshire stock may have been cheap then, but it wasn't as cheap as the Washington Post.

到了一九八七年——或者更准确地说,是一九八八年和一九八九年——你知道,Berkshire 的股票也许便宜,也许不便宜,但它没有 Coca-Cola 那么便宜。

In 1987—or well, it would have been 1988 and '89—you know, Berkshire stock may or may not have been cheap, but it wasn't as cheap as Coca-Cola.

而且,在成千上万种可能的投资里,Berkshire 在任何一个时点都正好是最有吸引力的那个,这种情况不太可能发生;但如果真是那样的话,你知道,很显然,我们会回购自己的股票。

And it's unlikely that among the thousands of possible investments that Berkshire will be the most attractive at any time, but if it were, you know, obviously we would, we would buy in our own stock.

但我认为,如果 Dow 跌百分之五十,我们会有很多很有意思的事情可做,我们不会不高兴。

But I think if the Dow went down 50%, we would have plenty of interesting things to do, and we would not be unhappy.

Charlie?

Charlie?

对,我们没有什么规则禁止这么做。

Yeah, we don't have any rule against it.

机会成本就是我们这里玩的这个游戏。

Opportunity cost is the game around here.

四区?

Zone 4?