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2015年股东大会 · 巴菲特芒格对中国经济前景的看法

54 段 · 3 位说话人 · 原片 5:35
M1
M10:00

谢谢你让我提这个问题。

Thank you for taking my question.

我叫 Brandon Chen。

My name is Brandon Chen.

我来自台湾台北。

I'm from Taipei, Taiwan.

我的问题是,中国正在经历一系列结构性变化。

My question is, China is undergoing a number of structural changes.

你怎么看——当你给中国经济把脉的时候,你读出了什么?你会给出什么建议?

What do you— when you take the pulse of the Chinese economy, what do you read and what advice would you give?

谢谢。

Thank you.
M2
M20:19

Charlie 是中国问题专家。

Charlie's the China expert.

我觉得,从长期来看,中国会发展得非常好。

I think China is going to do very fine over a period of time.
M3
M30:24

对,我非常看好中国正在发生的一切。

Yeah, I'm a big fan of what's happening in China.

事实上,我刚让人准备做一个 Lee Kuan Yew 的半身像,他是最近去世的新加坡前总理——因为我觉得他对先治理好新加坡、然后影响中国,贡献都非常大。

And as a matter of fact, I've just ordered prepared a bust of Lee Kuan Yew, the recently deceased prime minister— ex-prime minister of Singapore, because I think he's contributed so much to fixing first Singapore and then China.

Lee Kuan Yew 在新加坡做过的一件事,就是制止腐败。

And one of the things Lee Kuan Yew did in Singapore was to stop the corruption.

甚至把他一些亲近的朋友都撤职了。

Including cashiering some of his close friends.

而中国也在做同样的事,我认为这是我很长很长时间以来,看到一个大国做过的最聪明的该死的事。

And China's doing the same thing, and I consider it the smartest damn thing I've seen a big country do in a long, long time.

而且我觉得——如果掌权的政治统治者自己就是 kleptocrats,那你很难树立正确的榜样。

And, and I think that to— it's hard to set the proper example if the leading political rulers are kleptocrats.

你知道,你不会想让一窝贼来治理你。

You know, you don't want to be run by a den of thieves.

你想要的是负责任的人。

You want responsible people.

Lee Kuan Yew 做的另一件事,是给公务员发高得多的薪水,并且招募非常优秀的人。

And what Lee Kuan Yew did is he paid the civil servants way better and recruited very good people.

他就是建立起了一个更好的制度。

And he just created a better system.

当然,中国也在大范围地效仿他,而他们这么做是一件非常棒的事。

And of course, China is widely copying him, and it's a wonderful thing they're doing.

所以我非常看好中国正在发生的这些事,而且我觉得——我觉得这很可能会成功。

So I'm very high on what's going on in China, and I think it's— I think it's very likely to work.

他们实际上确实枪毙过几个人。

They've actually shot a few people.

这真的很能引起大家的注意。

That really gets people's attention.
M2
M22:01

现在我们开始听到一些很实际的建议了。

Now we're starting to get some practical advice here.

中国在过去四十年左右发生的事情,我是说,在我看来,简直完全可以说是个奇迹。

What has happened in China over the last 40 or so years, I mean, it just strikes me as just totally miraculous.

我不觉得——我以前根本不会相信,一个国家能在这么短时间里走这么远,尤其是这么大一个国家,能这么快走到这一步。

I don't think— I would not have believed that a country could move so far so fast, a country that size particularly, so far so fast.

而且这一直都是——

And it's been—
M3
M32:27

世界历史上,从来没有哪个这么大的国家能取得这么大的进步。

It never happened before in the history of the world that a country so big had come so far.

我小时候,中国百分之八十的人口都不识字。

When I was a little boy, 80% of the population of China was illiterate.

而且深陷在勉强糊口的贫困和农业社会里。

And mired in subsistence poverty and agriculture.

你想想看,他们还经历过那么可怕的战争,再看看他们今天。

Now just think, and they've been through horrible wars, and look at them.

这是地球历史上最了不起的成就之一,少数几个人对此做出了极其重大的贡献,其中就包括这位在 Singapore 的中国政治家。

It's one of the most remarkable achievements in the history of the earth, and a few people made an extreme contribution to it, including this Chinese politician in Singapore.

而且我得把很大一部分功劳记在 Communist Party 头上,因为他们借鉴了 Lee Kuan Yew。

And I give the Communist Party a lot of credit for copying Lee Kuan Yew.

Berkshire 做的也就是这个,就是向对的人学习。

That's all Berkshire does, is copy the right people.
M2
M23:14

对,一七九零年的时候,美国有四百万人口。

Yeah, in 1790, the United States had 4 million people.

中国有两亿九千万人口。

China had 290 million people.

他们和我们一样聪明。

They were just as smart as we were.

他们也一样勤奋。

They worked as hard.

气候差不多,土壤也差不多。

Similar climate, similar soil.

然后在接近两百年的时间里,你知道,美国靠着这四百万人,一路发展到接近全球 GDP 的百分之二十五,而中国实际上几乎没什么进展。

And for 200, close to 200 years, you know, the United States went with those 4 million people to close to 25% of the world's GDP, and China really didn't go anyplace.

可接下来,还是同样这些人,在四十年的时间里——而且他们现在并不比四十年前更努力,也不比四十年前更聪明,至少就基本智力而言——你看看他们取得了多大的成就。

And then those same people in 40 years, and they're not working harder now than they were 40 years ago, they're not smarter now than they were 40 years ago in terms of basic intelligence, and just look at what's been accomplished.

我的意思是,这确实说明了,一旦你找到一种能把人的潜力释放出来的制度,人类能做到什么。

I mean, it does show you the human potential when you find a system that unleashes it.

我们在两百年前找到了这样一种能释放人类潜力的制度,而他们是在四五十年前找到了这样的制度。

And we found a system that unleashed human potential a couple hundred years ago, and they found a system that unleashed human potential 40 or 50 years ago.

而且,你知道,当你看到这样的例子时,它一定会对未来发生的事情产生非常强烈的影响。

And, you know, when you see that example, you know, it has to have a powerful effect on what happens in the future.

还有,呃,真是令人惊叹,几百年来这些人的人生基本上都没有太大变化,然后一下子就爆发了。

And, uh, it's just amazing that you could have people go nowhere basically in their lives for centuries and then just it explodes.

看到这一切,真的让我震撼不已。

And it just blows me away to see it.

你会发现,还是同样的人,但他们找到了释放自己潜力的方法。

And you make it—it's the same human beings, but they've found a way to unlock their potential.

我为他们祝贺。

And I congratulate them for it.

而且就像 Charlie 刚才说的,在可见的未来,中国和美国都会是超级大国。

And as Charlie said earlier, China and the United States are going to be the superpowers for as far as the eye can see.

而且在我看来,中国人找到了释放自身潜力的方法,这对我们真的是件好事。

And it is, it is really good for us, in my view, that the Chinese have found the way to unlock their potential.

我认为,对于两个拥有核武器的国家来说,在这样的世界里,至关重要的是要想办法更多看到彼此的长处,而不是缺点。

And I think it's imperative for two countries with nuclear weapons that in this kind of world that they figure out ways to see the virtues in each other rather than the flaws.

我们和中国人之间会有很多分歧,他们和我们之间也一样,但我们应该记住,总的来说,如果对方发展得好,我们双方都会过得更好。

We'll have plenty of disagreements with the Chinese, and they will with us, but we ought to remember that on balance, we're both better off if the other one's doing well.

这只是我个人的看法。

That's just my own view.
M3
M35:30

好。

Okay.
M2
M25:32

请三号提问点。

Station 3, please.