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巴菲特再谈投资苹果公司的原因

47 段 · 3 位说话人 · 原片 5:41
M1
M10:00

我们收到了几个跟 Apple 有关的问题。

We got a handful of questions relating to Apple.
M2
M20:02

这个算是把其中几个问题合在一块儿问。

This is a bit of a mashup of a couple of them.

Warren,你买过 IBM,后来又卖掉了。

Warren, you have bought in and sold out of IBM.

你夸过 Jeff Bezos,但从来没买过 Amazon。

You have praised Jeff Bezos but never bought Amazon.

而且你还加码了 Apple。

And you have doubled down on Apple.

你能跟我们说说,Apple 到底有什么特别吗?

Can you tell us what it is about Apple?

还有,考虑到你有时候对 buyback 持批评态度,你觉得 Apple 是拿一千亿美元做 buyback 更好,还是像你通常更偏好的那样,去买别的有生产力的业务更好?

And given your sometimes critical views on buybacks, do you think Apple would do better spending $100 billion on buybacks or buying other productive businesses the way you have generally preferred?

一千亿美元可是很大一笔钱。

$100 billion is a lot of money.
M3
M30:31

我以前也这么觉得。

I used to think so.

Apple 有一款非常了不起的消费品,这一点你比我懂得多得多。

Apple has an incredible consumer product, which you understand a lot better than I do.

至于他们该不该回购股票,除非他们觉得自己的股票价格低于内在价值,否则就根本不该回购。

Whether they should buy in their shares, they shouldn't buy in their shares at all unless they think that they're selling for less than they're worth.

如果股价确实低于内在价值,而且他们手里有钱,同时也看不到什么比这更有吸引力的收购目标,那他们就应该回购自己的股票。

And if they are selling for less than they're worth and they have the money and they don't see an acquisition that's even more attractive, they should buy in their shares.

我觉得这一点非常——因为我认为,对 Apple 来说,要找到那种能增厚价值、而且规模还在五百亿、一千亿或者两千亿美元这个区间的收购,难度是极高的。

And I think that that's very— because I think it's extremely hard to find acquisitions that would be accretive to Apple that would be in the $50 or $100 billion or $200 billion range.

他们会做很多小型收购,而且,你知道,看到他们回购股票我很高兴。

They do a lot of small acquisitions, and, you know, I'm delighted to see them repurchasing shares.

我们持有——这么说吧,大概持有两亿五千万股左右。

We own, let's say we own 250 million or so shares.

而他们总股本,我想,大概是四十九亿两千三百万股,差不多这个数。

They have, I think, 4,923,000,000 or something like that.

你心里可以把它当成我们拥有其中的百分之五,但我觉得,随着时间稍微过去一点,我们也许会拥有百分之六或者百分之七,仅仅因为他们在回购股票。

And mentally, you can say we own 5% of it, but I figure with the passage of a little time, we may own 6 or 7% simply because they repurchase shares.

而我发现,如果你拥有的是一个生态体系里非常卓越的产品,而且还有很多事情可做,那我非常喜欢这样一种情况:我们的百分之五,不管具体是多少,能在我们一分钱都不用掏的情况下,涨到百分之六或者百分之七。

And I find that if you've got an extraordinary product in the ecosystem and there's lots to be done, I love the idea of having our 5% or whatever it may be grow to 6% or 7% without us laying out a dime.

我的意思是,这在很多别的情况下对我们都很有效;但前提是,你得有一种非常、非常、非常特别的产品,而且它背后有一个覆盖极广的 ecosystem,这个产品还得非常稳定;同时,他们也找不到那种五百亿或一千亿美元级别、价格哪怕勉强算合理、而且真能给现有业务增值的收购对象。

I mean, it's worked for us in many other situations, but you have to have some very, very, very special product, and which has an enormously widespread ecosystem, and the product's extremely stable, and they're not going to find $50 or $100 billion acquisitions that they can make at remotely a sensible price that really become additive to that.

当然,他们也可能会找到,谁知道呢?

And they may find it, who knows?

但至少以我现在放眼看去,在可预见的范围里,我看不到什么目标,能让他们在要付出的价格和最终得到的东西之间,形成很有意义的匹配。

But there's certainly, as I look around the horizon, I don't see anything that would make a lot of sense for them in terms of what they'd have to pay and what they would get.

相反,我倒是看到一门他们了如指掌的生意;而当他们回购自己股票的时候,能不能以一个有吸引力的价格买下来,这就另说了。

Whereas I do see a business that they know everything about and where they may or may not be able to buy it at an attractive price when they repurchase their shares.

这个还要再看。

That remains to be seen.

顺便说一句,这也是我一直觉得挺有意思的一点。

Incidentally, that's one thing that I always enjoy.

人们会说,哦,你这是在为自己的持仓说话,或者类似这种意思。

People say, well, you're talking your book or something.

如果从我们的角度来说,我们很乐意看到 Apple 的股价下跌。

If you talk from our standpoint, we would love to see Apple go down in price.

而且他们会——这么说吧。

And they're going to— well, just put it this way.

如果 Andrew、Charlie 和我是一家价值三百万美元企业的合伙人,那么我们每个人都拥有价值一百万美元的权益;如果 Andrew 提出要以八十万美元卖掉他那三分之一的权益,而我们手头又有钱,那我们一定会立刻抓住机会把他的份额买下来。

If Andrew and Charlie and I were partners in a business that was worth $3 million, so each of us had a million-dollar interest in it, if Andrew offered to sell out his one-third interest at $800,000, and we had the money around, we'd jump at the chance to buy him out.

我的意思是,道理就这么简单,但人们总是把自己绕进去。

I mean, it's so simple, but people get all lost.

但如果他要价一百二十万美元,我们就不会付这个钱给他。

And if he wanted $1.2 million for it, we wouldn't pay it to him.

我的意思是,这就是非常简单的算术,但在这些讨论里,大家往往会把这一点给忽略掉。

I mean, it's very simple math, but it gets lost in all these discussions.

当然了,就像我说的,Tim Cook 会做简单的算术,他大概也会做非常复杂的数学。

And of course, like I say, Tim Cook can do simple math, and he'd probably do very complicated math too.

所以,他们回购股票这件事,我们是非常赞同的。

So we very much approve of them repurchasing shares.

Charlie?

Charlie?
M1
M14:30

我觉得一般来说,在美国,当公司不顾一切地跑去收购别的公司时,这笔交易做完以后,它们的价值往往比交易前还要低。

I think generally speaking, in America, when companies go out hell-bent to buy other companies, they're worth less after the transaction is made than they were before.

所以我不认为,对美国企业来说,跑出去买别的公司是一条普遍适用的财富之路。

So I don't think you have a general way to wealth for American corporations to go out and buy other corporations.

平均来看,这是一条往下走的路,不是往上走的路。

Averaged out, it's a way down, not up.

而且我觉得,很多公司其实没有比回购自己股票更好的事情可做,也没有什么事比回购自己股票对它们更有利。

And I think that a great many places have nothing better to do than to buy in their own stock, and nothing as advantageous to do as buying in their own stock.

所以我觉得,我们对 Apple 接下来会发生什么,已经看得相当清楚了。

So I think we know pretty damn well what's going to happen to Apple.

如果真有某个价格很便宜、又能让他们买下来的东西可买,那他们就算是非常走运了。

They'd be very lucky if there was something available at a low price that they could buy.

我不觉得这个世界有这么容易。

I don't think the world's that easy.

我觉得,这些公司之所以在回购自己的股票,是因为它们足够聪明,知道这么做比其他任何选择都更好。

I think that the reason these companies are buying their stock is that they're smart enough to know that it's better for them than anything else.
M3
M35:28

不过,这并不意味着我们赞成所有的回购。

That does not mean we approve of every buyback at all, though.

我的意思是,我们也见过——

I mean, we've seen—
M1
M15:31

不,不,不。

No, no, no.

我觉得有些人回购股票,只是为了把股价撑住,而那当然既荒唐又不道德。

I think some people just buy it to keep the stock up, and that, of course, is insane and immoral.

但除此之外,这么做没问题。

But apart from that, it's fine.