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2014年股东大会 · 巴菲特:喜诗糖果收购对BRK的重要性,再怎么说也不为过

48 段 · 3 位说话人 · 原片 5:17
M1
M10:00

喜诗糖果放在 Berkshire 现在规模庞大的业务版图里,显然算是个小业务,但一直以来它都是你最喜欢的企业之一。

See's Candies is obviously small in the context of Berkshire's currently expansive operations, but has long been one of your favorite businesses.

这也不奇怪,因为它的税前利润从一九七二年 Berkshire 收购它时还不到五百万美元,一路稳定增长到一九九九年的七千四百万美元。

And no wonder, given that its pre-tax profits grew consistently from less than $5 million in 1972, when Berkshire acquired it, to $74 million in 1999.

不过,从一九九九年以后,它的利润增长看起来好像停滞了。

However, since 1999, profit growth appears to have stalled.

你能解释一下,为什么喜诗在七十年代、八十年代和九十年代能持续提升利润,但到了这个千禧年目前为止却没有做到吗?

Can you explain why See's was able to grow its profits through the '70s, '80s, and '90s, but not so far in this millennium.

是不是这个生意本身发生了什么变化?比如说,盒装巧克力的需求增长,或者它的市场地位之类的。

Did something change about the business, for instance, the growth in demand for boxed chocolates or its market position?

你或者 Brad Kinstler 能不能谈谈,相对较近这几年的地域扩张,是否有助于重新点燃喜诗的增长?

Could you or Brad Kinstler discuss whether the relatively recent geographic expansion could help reignite See's growth?

谢谢。

Thank you.
M2
M20:45

对,盒装巧克力这个生意,基本上是不增长的。

Yeah, the boxed chocolate business is basically not growing.

我的意思是,如果你把时间往前推一百年,任何一个稍微有点规模的城市,都会有很多糖果店,这是很典型的。

I mean, if you go back 100 years, each city of any size was characterized by lots of candy shops.

Chicago 当时就是个很大的领头者。

Chicago was a big leader.

New York 也是个很大的领头者。

New York was a big leader.

信不信由你,Pepsi-Cola 的前身公司,曾经是拥有最多——它是一家叫 Loft 的公司。

Believe it or not, the predecessor company to Pepsi-Cola was the company with the most—it was a company called Loft.

那家公司在 New York City 拥有最多的糖果店。

That had the most candy shops in New York City.

它原本就是一家糖果店公司,是一个人——那个家伙叫什么来着?

It was a candy shop company originally that a fellow that—what was his name?

对,叫什么来着?

Yeah, what was it?
M3
M31:28

Frank Guff。

Frank Guff.
M2
M21:30

对,他花了几千美元买下了 Pepsi,把它塞进 Loft 里,所以如果你一路往回追溯 Pepsi 的公司历史,最早的公司名字其实是 Loft。

Yeah, he acquired Pepsi for a few thousand bucks, stuck it in Loft's, and the corporate name, if you go all the way back on Pepsi, is Loft's.

所以那时候到处都有大量的糖果店。

So there were loads of candy shops around every place.

还有,包括在 Omaha 在内,盒装巧克力的市场地位已经大幅下滑了。我猜主要是被各种咸味零食之类的东西抢走了需求。

And including in Omaha, boxed chocolates have lost position dramatically, primarily, I would guess, to salted snacks of one sort or another, various things.

喜诗的表现已经非常出色了,比任何一家巧克力公司都要好得多——

See's has done remarkably well, far better than any chocolate company

在这个国家都是这样。

in the country.

Russell Stover 也曾经有一段时间做得非常好,非常好,不过它的商业模式不一样。

Russell Stover did very well for a while, very well, with a different business model.

但是,你知道,他们后来也碰到了自己的问题。

But, you know, they ran into their problems as well.

所以,我们没法在扩大整个市场规模这件事上做太多事情。我们试过很多办法,也试过很多次走出我们最强势的地理区域。

So we can't do much about increasing the size of the market, and we've tried a lot of ways, and we've tried moving out of our strong geography

试过不止一次。

multiple times.

我是说,Charlie 和我在七十年代看到我们在 California 赚的钱,就跟自己说,要是这套模式不是在一个州,而是在五十个州都能做成,那我们可就要变得非常有钱了。

I mean, Charlie and I looked at what we were earning in California in the '70s and said to ourselves, if we could do this in 50 states instead of one, you know, we'll get very rich.

所以我们就试了,结果我们并没有变得非常有钱。

So we tried it and we didn't get very rich.

这东西没那么容易跨地区复制。

It doesn't travel that well.
M3
M33:01

嗯,有时候行,有时候不行。

Well, sometimes it does and sometimes it doesn't.

你要知道它到底行不行,办法就是去试。

And you figure out whether it's going to work by trying it.
M2
M23:07

对,我们试过很多次,不过到目前为止,很有意思的是——

Yeah, and we've tried it many times, but so far it's interesting.

美国东部有三分之二的人更喜欢 dark chocolate,比例大概是三比一。

Two-thirds of people in the East prefer dark chocolate, two-thirds to one-third.

在西部,他们更喜欢 milk chocolate,也是大概三比一。

In the West, they prefer milk chocolate, two-thirds to one-third.

东部的人喜欢 miniatures,西部的人根本不吃 miniatures。

They like miniatures in the East, they won't eat miniatures in the West.

差别很多,不过到最后,box chocolates 的销量其实也没有那么大。

There's a lot of different things, but in the end, there isn't a lot of box chocolates volume.

但我们在 See's 做得非常非常非常好。

And we've done very, very, very well in See's.

它不光给我们带来了利润,而这些利润又被我们拿去买别的企业,所以除了 See's 本身增加的盈利能力之外,我们还借着 See's 增加了很多很多整体的盈利能力;更重要的是,它让我真正看到了 brands 的力量。甚至你大概可以说,我们后来在 Coca-Cola 上赚了很多钱,部分原因就是我们买了 See's。至少对我来说,是因为买了 See's 以后,我对 brands 在某种程度上有了理解。不过,没有什么比你亲自拥有一个品牌,更能让你一边看到它的可能性、一边看到它的局限性,从而让你真正学会,未来哪些事情是你可以去做的。

And it not only has provided us with earnings that we've used to buy other businesses, so we've added lots of earnings power through See's beyond the earning power we've added at See's, but it opened my eyes to the power of brands. And probably you could say that we made a lot of money in Coca-Cola, partly because we bought See's, or at least in my case, bought See's because I'd understood brands to some degree, but there's nothing like owning one and sort of seeing the possibilities with it as well as the limitations to educate yourself about things you might do in the future.

一九七二年我们买了 See's,一九八八年我们买了 Coca-Cola。

And in 1972, we bought See's, and in 1988, we bought Coca-Cola.

如果当初我们没有拥有过 See's,那后来我们还会不会持有 Coca-Cola,我一点也不会觉得这是理所当然的。

And I wouldn't be at all surprised if we had not owned See's whether we would have owned Coca-Cola later on.

Charlie?

Charlie?
M3
M34:30

对,毫无疑问,它对 Berkshire 最主要的贡献,就是帮我们消除了无知。

Yeah, there's no question about the fact that its main contribution to Berkshire was ignorance removal.

而且,它也不是唯一一个在消除无知这件事上贡献很大的例子。

And it's not the only big contributor to ignorance removal.

如果不是因为我们非常擅长一步一步消除自己的无知,Berkshire 今天几乎什么都不是。

If it weren't for the fact we were so good at removing our ignorance step by step, Berkshire would be practically nothing today.

我们一开始懂的那点东西,是远远不够的。

What we knew originally wasn't enough.

我们买 See's 的时候,其实蠢得很。

We were pretty damn stupid when we bought See's.

我们也就是刚刚好聪明到,勉强能把它买下来。

We were just barely smart enough to buy it.

如果说 Berkshire 有什么秘诀,那就是我们特别擅长消除无知。

And if there's any secret to Berkshire, it's the fact that we're pretty good at ignorance removal.

而这件事最妙的地方在于,我们还有很多无知,等着被消除。

And the nice thing about that is we have a lot of ignorance left to remove.