M21:24
好，谢谢你。
Well, thank you.
我觉得你还应该再给你太太带一枚戒指回去。
I think you ought to take your wife another ring, too.
不过，还是谢谢你。
But thank you.
其实，早在很久以前——我不记得是不是在一九八零年的年报里了——但至少在二十年前，我们就说过，我们认为保险随着时间推移会成为我们最重要的业务。
We actually, as long ago as—I don't remember whether it was in the 1980 annual report, but at least 20 years ago, we did say that we thought insurance would be our most significant business over time.
我们当时并没有想到它会变得像现在这么重要，不过我们一直觉得，我们会涉足很多行业，但保险很可能会是我们最大的业务。
We had no idea that it would get to be as significant as it is, but we've always felt that that was—we would be in many businesses, but that insurance was likely to be our largest business.
现在，就员工人数来说，它还不是我们最大的业务。
Right now, it's not our largest business in terms of employment.
但按营收来说，它是我们最大的业务，而且我们也希望随着时间推移，它会大很多。
It's our largest business in terms of revenue, and we would hope it gets a lot bigger over time.
我们手头目前没有什么正在推进的项目，会直接让这件事发生，不过我们现有业务本身会有自然增长。
We don't have anything in the works that would make that happen, although we will have natural growth in what we already own.
但我们还是会继续收购各种东西，有时候，有些年份里，我们会——你知道——做一笔大的收购。
But we will just keep acquiring things, and sometimes, some years, we'll—you know, we'll make a big acquisition.
有些年份我们会做几笔小的收购。
Some years we'll make a few small acquisitions.
反正有什么机会来了，我们就做什么。
We'll do whatever comes down the pike.
我是说，如果这场会议结束以后有个电话在等着，而且是一笔有意思的收购，那就会成交。
I mean, if there's a phone call waiting when this meeting is over and it's an interesting acquisition, it'll get done.
我们没有什么总体规划。
We don't have a master plan.
Charlie 和我不会坐在那里搞什么战略规划，也不会讨论各个行业的未来，或者做这类事情。
We don't—Charlie and I do not sit around and strategize or talk about the future of various industries or do anything of that sort.
我们根本不这么干。
It just doesn't happen.
我们没有什么报告体系。
We don't have any reports.
我们也没有什么员工班子。
We don't have any staff.
这些东西我们统统都没有。
We don't have any of that.
我们会尽量看所有送到我们面前的东西。
We try to look at what comes in.
我们会尽量把整个金融领域都扫一遍。
We try to survey the whole financial field.
我们会看送到我们面前的机会，然后找那些我们看得懂的、我们认为有持久竞争优势的、管理层我们喜欢的，而且价格也合理的东西。
We try to look at what comes in and look for things we understand, where we think they have a durable competitive advantage, where we like the management, and where the price is sensible.
而且，你知道，两三年前我们完全没想到，我们后来会成为全球最大地毯公司 Shaw Industries 百分之八十七的股东。
And, you know, we had no idea 2 or 3 years ago, you know, that we would be the 87% owner of the largest carpet company, Shaw Industries, in the world.
你知道，这种事我们其实不是事先规划好的。
You know, we just don't—we don't plan these things.
不过我可以比较笼统地告诉你，大概二十年以后，我们会拥有更多企业。
But I would tell you in a general way that 20 or so years from now, we will own a lot more businesses.
我还是觉得很可能——我是说，我认为几乎可以确定，二十年后保险业务对我们来说会比现在更大。
I would still think it likely—I mean, I think it's certain that insurance will be a bigger business for us in 20 years than it is now.
很可能会大很多。
Probably much bigger.
但我也觉得，很可能它到时候依然会是我们最大的业务。
But I think it's—and I think it's also likely it will be our biggest business still.
不过这也可能会变。
But that could change.
我的意思是，明天就可能有人给我们一个交易机会，比如一百五十亿到两百亿美元的 deal，那到时候我们在那个行业里的资金占比就会很大。
I mean, we could get a deal offered to us tomorrow that, you know, was a $15 or $20 billion deal, and then we've got a lot of money in that industry at that point.
所以，真的，我们现在并不比一九六五年买下那家纺织厂的时候更有什么总体规划。
So it's—we have no more master plan now than we had back in 1965 when we bought the textile mill, really.
我的意思是，我们当时接手的是一门很糟糕的生意。
I mean, we had a lousy business.
我刚进去的时候，还没意识到它竟然糟糕到那个程度。
I didn't realize it was as lousy as it was when I got into it.
然后我们就不得不开始想办法，用一种聪明的方式去配置资本。
And we had to, you know, we just had to start trying to deploy capital in an intelligent way.
不过，说到底，从我十一岁起，我们就在做资本配置这件事了。
But we've been deploying capital, you know, since I was 11.
我的意思是，这就是我们的业务，而且我们也乐在其中。
And I mean, that's our business and we enjoy it.
而且我们也确实会碰到这样的机会。
And we get opportunities to do it.
不过你的规模越大，能遇到的机会往往就越少。
But the bigger you are, the fewer the opportunities you're likely to get.
嗯，我觉得几乎可以肯定，二十年后，每一股 Berkshire 背后的实力和价值都会强得多。
Well, I think it's almost a sure thing that 20 years from now, there'll be way more strength and value behind each Berkshire share.
我也觉得还有一件事是绝对可以肯定的，那就是每年进步的百分比速度，会比过去低很多。
I also think it is an absolutely sure thing that the annual percentage rate of progress will go way down from what it has been in the past.
这点毫无疑问。
No question about it.