2011年股东大会 · 为什么巴菲特对美国的未来永远都这么乐观？ — 文稿

F10:00

这是提给 Warren 的，这个——还有 Charlie——来自你们在 Omaha 多年的老朋友 Dick Holland。

This is for Warren, this is— and Charlie too— from your longtime Omaha friend Dick Holland.

每次你谈到美国经济的未来，只要是从整体角度来讲，你的说法总是很正面，甚至可以说是充满赞美，尽管现在公共和私人债务都在严重增长，由此造成了巨大的预算失衡，而且也没有真正的政策来解决这些问题。

Whenever you talk in a general way about America's economic future, your remarks are invariably positive, even glowing, despite the severe problems of growing public and private debt, the huge budget imbalances that result, and no real policies to solve these problems.

有些专家认为，我们可能会走到这样一个地步：未来为了填补不断上升的债务而发行的债券，可能会卖不出去。

Some experts believe that we may reach the point where future bond offerings to cover the rising debt might fail.

很多人都在怀疑，我们是不是正在进入一个国家衰落的时期。

Many wonder if we are not entering a time of national decline.

美国长期经济如果这么糟，怎么还能让你这么开心呢？

How can a lousy long-term U.S. economy make you so happy?

还有，为什么别人看到的是盐，你看到的却是金块呢？

And why do you see gold nuggets where others see salt?

M10:48

这也是 Charlie 的好朋友 Dick Holland 提的问题，我们俩都认识他六十多年了。

That's from Charlie's good friend as well, Dick Holland, who we both have known for 60-plus years.

我真看不出来，怎么会有人对这个国家不感到振奋。

I don't see how anybody can be other than enthused about this country.

如果你回头看，从 1776 年也好，或者 1789 年也好，随便你从哪个年份开始算，你就会知道，这是世界历史上最非凡的一段经济时期。

If you look back to 1776 or 1789, whichever one you want to date it from, you know, it has been the most extraordinary economic period in the history of the world.

实际上，要是再往回说，我是 1930 年 8 月 30 号出生的。

In fact, if you go back, I was born on August 30, 1930.

现在，假如有人在我还在娘胎里的时候跑来跟我说，让我告诉你外面现在是什么样。

Now, if somebody had come to me in the womb and said, let me tell you what it's like outside now.

对，股市刚刚崩盘，不过你现在看到的还不算什么。

Yeah, the stock market has just crashed, but you haven't seen anything yet.

接下来会有四千家银行倒闭。

4,000 banks are going to fail.

Dow Jones 指数会跌到 42 点。

The Dow Jones average is going to go down to 42.

就在你被怀上的前不久，它还在 381 点。

It was 381 back just a little bit before you were conceived.

然后它会跌到 42 点。

And it's going to go to 42.

银行还会关门一阵子。

They're going to close the banks for a while.

我们会出现百分之二十五的失业率。

We're going to have 25% unemployment.

美国中西部还会出现 Dust Bowl。

We're going to have the Dust Bowl in the Midwest.

蝗虫会到处肆虐。

The grasshoppers are going to take over.

你知道，这就像 Woody Allen 那部电影里说的那样，回去，回去。

You know, it would be like in that Woody Allen movie where he says, go back, go back.

可是，自从 1930 年 8 月 30 号以来，真正发生的一切，就是美国普通人的生活水平提高到了原来的六倍。

And, and I— all that's happened since August 30, 1930 is that the standard of living of the average American has increased six for one.

六倍。

Six for one.

你知道，这简直不可思议。

You know, that's absolutely incredible.

我的意思是，你去看看过去那些一个世纪又一个世纪里，普通人几乎什么变化都没有发生的年代。

I mean, if you look at centuries where nothing happened for the average person, I mean, century after century.

所以我们有一套运行得非常出色的制度。

So we have a system that works magnificently.

它会周期性地卡壳，而且一直都会遇到各种麻烦。

It gets gummed up periodically, and it always has troubles.

我是说，你知道，我父亲当年非常反对 New Deal，所以从我们记事起，我和我姐妹们就一直在饭桌边听他说，这一切迟早都会完蛋。

I mean, you know, I— my father was very anti-New Deal, so my sisters and I sat around a dinner table from the first we can remember hearing how things were going to go to hell.

事实上，我岳父当年还跟我未来的太太和她母亲说，在我们结婚之前，他想先跟我谈一谈。

As a matter of fact, my father-in-law told my wife-to-be and her mother that he wanted to have a talk with me before we got married.

不过他当时其实很站在我这边，所以我对此一点也不慌，也没什么好担心的。

And he was very much on my side, so I was not in a panic about this or anything.

不过在结婚前不久，我去过他家，这位很了不起的人，Doc Thompson，坐在椅子上跟我聊了好几个小时。

But I went down to his house shortly before the marriage, and this wonderful man, Doc Thompson, sat in a chair for a couple of hours.

F13:30

对。

Yes.

M13:31

他说，Warren，他说，我就是想告诉你，你会失败的，但这不是你的错。

And he said, Warren, he said, I just want to tell you that you're going to fail, but it's not your fault.

他说，你和 Susie，我女儿，你知道，就算你们挨饿，她本来也一样会挨饿。

And he said, you and Susie, my daughter, you know, if you starve, she would have starved anyway.

我的意思是，这不是你的错。

I mean, it is not your fault.

这是因为，你知道，这是因为 Democrats 执政了，你知道，他们会把这个国家一路带向 communism，所以啊，你不用担心你会失败这件事，因为——这番话他说了挺久的。

It's because, you know, it's because the Democrats are in, you know, and they're gonna take the country down the road to communism, and, you know, and just don't worry about the fact you're gonna fail, because—and this went on for quite a while.

后来他还祝福了我，然后我们就结婚了。

And then he blessed me, and we got married.

算是个圆满的结局。

It was a happy ending.

不过从那以后，等我一九五一年毕业的时候，这世上我最敬佩的两个人，我父亲和 Ben Graham，都跟我说，你知道，你前途不错，但现在别进入股票行业，因为 Dow Jones average 从来没有哪一年收在两百点以下过，而现在它已经在两百点之上了。

But ever since, when I got out of school in 1951, the two people I admired the most in the world, my dad and Ben Graham, both said, you know, you've got a good future, but don't start in stocks now because there's never been a year when the Dow Jones average has not ended up below 200, and it's above 200 now.

这实在太高了，如果你现在开始把股票卖给别人，他们的体验会很糟。

It's much too high, and if you start now selling stocks to people, they're going to have bad experiences.

所以你为什么不先等等，去 Omaha National Bank 工作，或者做点别的，让自己先待在场边观望呢？

And so why don't you go wait a while and go work in the Omaha National Bank or do something, park yourself on the sidelines?

呃，负面因素总是有的。

Uh, there's always negatives.

这个国家也总是会面对问题。

The country always faces problems.

我的意思是，这个国家经历过，你知道，经历过 Civil War。

I mean, this country went through, you know, it went through a Civil War.

你知道，它还经历过各种各样的事情。

You know, it's gone through all kinds of things.

但结果呢？

But what happens?

你知道，我们时不时就是会有几年很糟糕的日子。

You know, we have a few lousy years from time to time.

我的意思是，这个国家从建立到现在，大概已经经历过十五次衰退了，而且每年年初，我们总能列出十条或者十五条理由，告诉你为什么这个国家不可能运转良好。

I mean, we've had probably 15 recessions since the country started, and we will always have a list of 10 or 15 things at the start of the year that will tell you why, you know, this country can't possibly work well.

但我只能告诉你，它不是沿着一条直线前进的，不过 capitalism 的力量是惊人的。

But all I can tell you is that it doesn't do it in a straight line, but the power of capitalism is incredible.

我的意思是，你知道，正是这个力量在把我们从这次衰退里带出来。

I mean, you know, that's what is bringing us out of this recession.

我是说，monetary policy 和 fiscal policy 确实有些作用，尤其是在二零零八年秋天，政府在非常非常大的程度上是必要的。

I mean, monetary and fiscal policy have some utility, and certainly in the fall of 2008, the government was needed in a huge, huge way.

因为当时只有它能做到那些必须做的事。

It could do what was—it was the only one that could do what was needed.

但是如果你看看 United States 的历史，你知道，我们大概有一半的衰退都发生在——就说十九世纪吧——那时候人们甚至都不知道 fiscal policy 或者 monetary policy 是什么。

But if you look at the history of the United States, you know, probably half of our recessions have occurred during, we'll say, the 19th century, when people didn't even know what fiscal or monetary policy was.

我的意思是，当时发生的情况就是，过度行为会出现，然后 capitalism 自我修复、让经济复苏的力量会把国家重新带回正确的——带回更强劲的增长轨道上。

I mean, what happened was that excesses would come in, and then the resuscitative power of capitalism would set the country back on the right—on a stronger growth pattern.

而这种事一次又一次、反反复复地发生。

And that's happened time after time after time.

而且这场游戏还没结束。

And the game isn't over.

我的意思是，这并不是说 America 的潜力已经被用光了。

I mean, it is not like the potential of America has been used up.

真正发生的是，世界其他地方在某种程度上也学会了。

What has happened is the rest of the world has caught on to some extent.

所以你会看到，像 China 这样的地方出现了一些 state capitalism，他们正在释放那些沉睡了

So you're seeing, you know, some state capitalism in places like China, and they're turning economies loose that have been dormant

几个世纪的经济体，但这不是因为那些人更聪明。

for centuries, but it's not because the people are smarter.

这不是因为他们更努力。

It's not because they work harder.

只是因为他们进入了一个随着时间推移运转得非常出色的体系。

It's just because they have tapped into a system that works marvelously over time.

我跟你们说，接下来这一百年里，大概会有十五年，也可能多到二十年，是很糟糕的年份，但到那时候，我们会比现在领先太多，简直会让人认不出来。

And I will tell you, in the next 100 years, you're going to have probably 15, maybe as many as 20 lousy years, but we will be so far ahead of where we are now that we'll be unrecognizable.

M27:06

嗯，我觉得你可以把时间再往前推得多得多。

Well, I think you can go back a lot farther than that.

你知道，欧洲连 Black Death 都挺过来了，那时候大概有三分之一的人死了。

You know, Europe survived the Black Death, where about a third of the people died.

这个世界会继续运转下去的。

The world is going to go on.

M17:20

这对 Charlie 来说已经算是极度乐观了。

That's wildly optimistic for Charlie.

Charlie，你还能不能说点比这更鼓舞人的话？

Have you got anything more encouraging than that to say, Charlie?

M27:34

我不知道。

I don't know.

我有点——我多少能理解 Dick Holland 的看法。

I kind of— I understand a little bit of Dick Holland's point of view.

顺便说一句，我认识他很多年了。

By the way, I've known him a long time.

在 Unitarian Church 里那个“chief candle snuffer”的位置上，他把我最后一点希望都给挤没了。

He edged me out of any hope of being the chief candle snuffer at the Unitarian Church.

他干这个实在是他妈的太厉害了。

He was so damn good at it.

总之，呃，问题是什么来着？

Anyway, uh, what was the question?

M17:57

你能不能让自己说点乐观的话？

Can you bring yourself to say anything optimistic?