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2008年股东大会 · 巴菲特:如果五分钟内做不出一个投资决定,那五个月也不行

48 段 · 3 位说话人 · 原片 4:39
M1
M10:00

你好,Buffett 先生。

Hello, Mr. Buffett.

你好,Munger 先生。

Hello, Mr. Munger.

我叫 Burkhard Wittek,来自德国慕尼黑。

My name is Burkhard Wittek, and I'm from Munich, Germany.

嗯,我想回到你刚才提到的那个观点,就是作为一个专业投资人,应该能够快速而果断地行动。

Um, I would like to get back to your point that as a professional investor, one should be able to act quickly and decisively.

这意味着,你要能够知道一家公司的内在价值是多少,并且如果市场给出了机会,你要能在一天之内,甚至一小时之内采取行动。

That means being able to know what the intrinsic value is and to act within a day or within an hour if the market offers an opportunity.

我的问题是,在你的脑子里,你知道内在价值、而且如果市场给出一个对你有吸引力的价格,你能在一两天内出手的公司,这样的公司池子到底有多大?

My question is, how large is the universe of companies which you have in your head whose intrinsic value you know, where you would be able to act within a day or two if the market offered an attractive price to you?

第二,为什么你会突然投资 South Korea 或者 China?

And secondly, how come you suddenly invest in South Korea or China?
M2
M20:47

对,我们可以,我们可以行动。

Yeah, we can, we can act.

我们首先要立刻判断的是,摆在我们面前的这个东西,我们到底能不能看明白。

Our immediate decision is whether we can figure what's being offered out to us or not.

我的意思是,这里有一个做还是不做的信号。Charlie 和我经常被人觉得很粗鲁,但其实我们只是想礼貌一点,不浪费对方的时间。

I mean, there's a go/no-go signal, and Charlie and I are often thought to be rude when we think we're just being polite and not wasting the other person's time.

所以,有些人第一次跟我们谈,话才说到半句,我们就会直接说,算了吧。

So as they start mid-sentence in their first conversation with us, we just say, forget it.

Charlie 在这方面特别厉害,我也正在学。

And Charlie's pretty good at that, and I'm picking it up.

在一场谈话非常非常非常早的时候,我们就知道,对方说的东西对我们来说到底有没有任何可操作的可能。

We know very, very, very early in a conversation whether somebody's talking about something that there's any chance is actionable by us.

至于那些错过的机会,我们并不担心。

And we don't worry about the ones we miss.

我们要确保,不会把时间浪费在那些事情上,因为就算我们把它们从头到尾想完了,最后我们也还是没有足够的信息来做决定。

We, we want to make sure that we don't waste any time thinking about things that when we get all through thinking about them, we're not going to know enough to make the decision on.

所以这种我们就直接排除掉,而这样一来,能排除掉很多东西。

So we just rule those out, and that rules a lot of things out.

不过,如果一个机会通过了前面的几道筛选,进入了这样一个范围:也就是我们对它足够了解,足以做出决定,那我们当场就准备行动。

Uh, but then if it gets through a couple of these filters, uh, and makes it into an area where it says this is something that we know enough about to make a decision on, we're ready to move right then.

所以我们是会做决定的。

So we make decisions.

我们很容易在五分钟之内做出决定。

We can make a decision in 5 minutes very easily.

我是说,这事本来就没那么复杂。

I mean, it just is not that complicated.

现在,我们了解不少企业和行业,当然,也有很多企业和行业是我们完全不了解的。

Now, we know about a number of businesses and industries, and there's a lot of businesses and industries we don't know anything about.

对于某些类型的债券,我们知道得很多;还有一些——我们了解的东西有很多种。

We know a lot of things about certain kinds of bonds, and we know some— there's a variety of things we know about.

如果我们能把这个知识范围扩大一点,当然很好。

And it's nice if we can expand that universe of knowledge.

但最重要的是,任何通过筛选的东西,都必须落在我们的知识范围之内。

But the most important thing is that anything that gets through is in an area of knowledge.

而事实是,如果我们五分钟之内做不出决定,那五个月之内也做不出来。

And the truth is, if we can't make a decision in 5 minutes, we can't make it in 5 months.

你知道,接下来的五个月里,我们不可能学到足够多的东西,来弥补一开始就存在的认知不足。

You know, there's— we're not going to learn enough in the following 5 months to make up for the fact that we went in deficient in the first place.

所以在 Berkshire,这根本不算什么问题。

So it's just not a problem around Berkshire.

如果我们接到一个电话,有人说他们有一家企业要出售,或者——嗯,反正我们接到的电话通常就是这种。

If we get a call and somebody says either they've got a business for sale or— well, that's what we're going to get on the calls.

或者如果我在看报纸、杂志、annual report,或者 10-K 的时候,看到一个价格,而这个价格和价值之间存在明显差距,我们就会立刻行动。

Or if I'm reading a paper or a magazine or an annual report or a 10-K and I look at a price and there's a significant differential between price and value, we move right then.

而且 Charlie 和我甚至都不需要彼此商量。

And Charlie and I don't need to talk to each other about it.

我的意思是,我们俩思考方式是一样的,而且我们的知识范围大体上也差不多。

I mean, we both think the same way and we have generally similar spheres of knowledge.
M3
M33:11

Charlie?

Charlie?

哦,这个——你这个问题的答案是,我们能非常快、非常轻松地对很多事情做出很多决定,而且——而且,而且我们在这方面是很少见的。

Oh, it's— the answer to your question is we can make a lot of decisions about a lot of things very fast and very easily, and the— and, and we're unusual in that respect.

我们之所以能做到这一点,是因为有大量的事情,我们根本就不让自己去想。

And the reason we're able to do that is there's such an enormous lot of things that we won't allow ourselves to think about at all.

事情就是这么简单。

It's just that simple.

我的意思是,别人来向我推介的时候,我有一句口头禅,通常他们第一句话讲到一半,我就会说,我们不做 startups。

I mean, I have a little phrase when people make pitches to me, and about halfway through the first sentence I say, we don't do startups.

它们不存在。

They don't exist.

你看,只要把 startups 这一类划掉,你生活里就少掉了一整层复杂性。

Well, if you blot out startups, there's a whole layer of complexity that goes out of your life.

而且我们还有别的一些这种筛除系统,而且,而且,而且靠着这些,我们最后发现,剩下来的范围其实还是相当大,而且是我们能处理的。

And we've got other little blotter-out systems, and, and, and using those, we finally find out that what remains is still a pretty large territory that we can handle.

Warren,你觉得这么说公平吗?

You think that's fair, Warren?
M2
M24:08

对。

Yeah.

而且很多时候,人家在前一两句话里就会抛出很多明显的信号,让我们一听就知道——这事行不通。

And there are an awful lot of giveaways that people, in the first sentence or two, throw out that we just know we aren't— it isn't going to work.

我们浪费很——我本来想说我们浪费很多时间,不过我们浪费时间的地方,都是我们自己愿意浪费时间的地方。

And we waste very— I would say we waste a lot of time, but we waste it on things we want to waste our time on.

而且我们在这方面非常挑。

And we're very selective about that.

然后我们也很擅长这个。

And then we're good at it.

我们确实会浪费很多时间。

We waste a lot of time.

但我们不会把时间浪费在那些我们不想浪费的事情上。

But we're not gonna waste it on things we don't wanna waste it on.

第三位。

Number 3.