M20:27
这不可能持续太久。
It can't continue very long.
Charlie，我可不会这么悲观。
I don't get defeatist, Charlie.
在 Berkshire，任何被选来接班的人，资本配置能力，以及已经被证明过的资本配置能力，肯定都会是董事会最优先考虑的事情；就眼下这个情况来说，就是我和 Charlie 对于我们不在之后该由谁接手的建议里，最看重的因素。
Any successor that's put in at Berkshire, capital allocation abilities and proven capital allocation abilities are certain to be uppermost in the board's minds, or in the current case, in terms of my recommendation, Charlie's recommendation for what happens after we're not around.
资本配置对 Berkshire 来说重要得不得了。
Capital allocation is incredibly important at Berkshire.
现在我们有两千八百亿到两千九百亿美元，不管具体是多少，都是股东权益。
Right now we have $280 or $290 billion, whatever it may be, of shareholders' equity.
嗯，如果只看接下来的十年，你知道，这个谁都没法做出准确预测，但在未来十年里，如果你只是看——而且目前折旧每年还有大约七十亿美元，差不多就是这个量级。
Uh, if you take the next decade alone, you know, nobody can make accurate predictions on this, but in the next 10 years, if you just take— and depreciation right now is another $7 billion a year, something on that order.
嗯，下一任管理者在这十年里，可能得配置四千亿美元左右，或者差不多这个数，也许还更多。
Uh, the next manager in the decade is going to have to allocate maybe $400 billion or something like that, maybe more.
而这比以前已经投进去的还要多。
And it's more than already has been put in.
所以十年之后，Berkshire 会变成一组企业的集合，而在那十年里投进去的钱，会比此前所有时间里发生过的一切加起来还多。
So 10 years from now, Berkshire will be an aggregation of businesses where more money has been put in in that decade than everything that took place ahead of time.
所以，担任 Berkshire CEO 这个职位的人，必须是一个非常理性的资本配置者。
So you need a very sensible capital allocator, uh, in the job of being CEO of Berkshire.
而我们会有这样的人。
And we will have one.
嗯，如果让一个来做这份工作的人——在这份工作里，资本配置也许会是——甚至可能就是他最主要的才能，那要是没有这种能力，就会是个可怕的错误。
Uh, it would be a terrible mistake, uh, to have someone in this job where really capital allocation might be— might even be their main talent.
这大概应该非常接近他最主要的才能。
That probably should be very close to their main talent.
嗯，当然，Berkshire 的一个优势就在于，我们确实知道这件事有多重要，而且我们的注意力也确实放在这上面。
Um, and of course, we have an advantage at Berkshire in that we do know how important that is, and there is that focus on it.
而在很多很多公司里，人们之所以能爬到最高层，靠的是销售能力。
And in a great many companies, people get to the top, uh, through ability in sales.
有时候他们来自法务，有时候来自各种不同的部门，然后资本配置这件事就落到了他们手里。
Sometimes they come from the legal side, sometimes all different sides, and they then have the capital allocation sort of in their hands.
当然，他们也许会设立战略规划部门，也许会去听 investment bankers 的意见，什么都会听，但他们最好自己得会做这件事。
Now, they may establish strategic planning divisions, and they may listen to investment bankers and everything, but they better be able to do it themselves.
嗯，而且，如果他们来自别的背景，或者以前没做过这个，那就有点——就像我在一封信里写过的，我觉得这就像你靠拉小提琴一路练到 Carnegie Hall，结果你走上台，人家递给你一架钢琴。
Uh, and, uh, if they come from a different background or haven't done it, it's a little bit— as I put in one of my letters, I think it's like getting to Carnegie Hall playing the violin, and then you walk out on the stage and they hand you a piano.
我的意思是，如果让一个人在其他方面很有本事，但在资本配置上确实没有能力的人来掌管 Berkshire，那 Berkshire 的表现不会好。
I mean, Berkshire would not do well if somebody was put in who had a lot of skills in other areas but really did not have an ability of capital allocation.
我以前把这个说成是一种我称之为 money mind 的东西。
I've talked about it as being something I call a money mind.
我的意思是，人们可能 IQ 是一百二，或者一百四，或者不管是多少，在智力测试上的得分能力都很接近，但有些人的脑子就是擅长这一类事情，有些人则擅长另一类。
I mean, people can have 120 IQs or 140 IQs or whatever it may be, very similar scoring abilities in terms of intelligence tests, and some of them have minds that are good at one type of thing and some of them another.
我认识一些非常聪明的人，但他们没有 money mind，他们可能会做出非常不明智的决定。
I've known very bright people that do not have money minds, and they can make very unintelligent decisions.
他们能做到各种大多数普通人做不到的事，嗯，但这就是——这不是他们大脑线路运作的方式。
They can do all kinds of other things that most mortals can't do, uh, but it just doesn't— it isn't the way their wiring works.
我也认识另外一些人，他们在别的方面其实未必有那么出色。
And I've known other people that really would not do that brilliantly.
他们在 SAT 这种考试上之类的，表现都还不错，但他们这辈子从来没做过愚蠢的金钱决策。
They do fine, but on an SAT test or something like that, but they've never made a dumb money decision in their life.
我敢肯定，Charlie 也见过同样的情况。
And Charlie, I'm sure, has seen the same thing.
所以我们的确想要这样一个人，而且希望他有很多才能，但有一点是肯定的：如果一个人没有这种 money mind，我们绝对不想要。
So we do want somebody, and hopefully they've got a lot of talents, but we certainly do not want somebody that—if they lack a money mind.
Charlie？
Charlie?
嗯，另外还有回购股票这个选择，所以也不是说这是什么无解的问题。
Well, there's also the option of buying in stock, which—so it isn't like it's some hopeless problem.
不管怎么样，最终都会做出聪明的处理。
One way or another, something intelligent will be done.
而一个有 money mind 的人，会知道什么时候回购股票是合理的，什么时候不是，你知道。
And a money mind will recognize when it makes sense to buy in stock and when it doesn't, you know.
事实上，这对有些管理层来说还是个挺不错的测试，就是看他们怎么思考像回购股票这样的事，呃，因为如果你在这类问题上思路够清楚，这其实不是个很复杂的判断。
And in fact, it's a pretty good test for some people in terms of management, how they think about something like buying in stock, uh, because it's not a very complicated equation if you sort of think straight about that sort of a subject.
但有些人就是会这么想，有些人不会，而他们可能在某些别的事情上要强得多。
But some people think that way and some don't, and they're probably miles better at something than something else.
但一旦谈到这种其实很清楚的问题——比如说回购股票到底合不合理——他们就会讲出一些很傻的话。
But they say some very silly things when you get to something that seems so clear as whether, say, buying in stock makes sense.