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1997年股东大会 · 巴菲特如何比较麦当劳与可口可乐公司

35 段 · 2 位说话人 · 原片 3:02
M1
M10:00

好的,先生。

Yes, sir.

我叫 Tom Conrad,来自 Virginia 的 McLean,我是一名股东。

My name is Tom Conrad and I'm from McLean, Virginia, and I'm a shareholder.

Buffett 先生,我去年也向您提过一个问题。

And I asked a question last year, Mr. Buffett, to you.

您当时说,只要投资三家优质公司,这辈子基本就够了,这句话让我印象特别深。

I was struck with what you said, that it takes only 3 quality companies to invest in to be set for a lifetime.

我去年问您的问题是,我应该等市场下跌再买,还是现在就进去?

And I asked you the question last year, should I wait until the market goes down or should I get in now?

而您的建议是,现在就买。

And you advised to get in now.

我选的那三家公司是 Coca-Cola、Gillette 和 Disney。

And the 3 companies that I chose were Coca-Cola, Gillette, and Disney.

也正因为这个建议,我今年才能负担得起来回这里的机票,再来问第二个问题。

And because of that advice, I was able to afford the ticket to come back this year to ask a second question.

我的问题是这样的:我在想——

My question is this: I'm thinking of—.
M2
M20:36

你应该见好就收,不过还是说吧。

You ought to quit while you're ahead, but go ahead.
M1
M10:42

我在考虑把持仓扩大到第四家公司。

I'm thinking of expanding to a 4th company.

啊,我正在考虑的这家公司是 McDonald's。

Ah, the company that I'm thinking of is McDonald's.

我想问一下,嗯,您是否觉得 McDonald's 也有像 Coca-Cola 和 Gillette 那样的主导能力?

And I see, um, I just wanted to ask you if you feel that McDonald's has the same ability to dominate, uh, the way Coca-Cola and Gillette have?

还有,嗯,第二个问题,嗯,如果答案是肯定的,您觉得我应该,嗯,等价格再回落一点,还是现在就买进?

And, um, secondly, uh, do you feel that if the answer is yes, that I should, uh, wait until the price comes down a bit or get in now?

我的问题就是这个。

And that's my question.
M2
M21:07

好啊,你是想精确到八分之一个点,还是——我们要不要四舍五入一下?

Yeah, would you like it to the eighth of a point, or do you— shall we round off?

那个,呃,我们在年报里谈到过 Coca-Cola,说它的基础业务属于我称之为“inevitables”的那一类。

The, uh, we, uh, in the annual report, we, we talked about Coca-Cola and its base business being what I call the inevitables.

但是,Gillette 那边呢,这一点不一定能延伸到他们所有的业务上。

And but that, that product with Gillette, it doesn't extend over necessarily everything they do.

不过幸运的是,在这两家公司里,这些产品都非常重要。

But fortunately, in both those companies, those are very important products.

我会这么说,在食品行业里,你永远不会得到像 Coca-Cola 和 Gillette 这类产品那样完全确定的主导地位。

I, I would say that in the food business, you would never get the total certainty of dominance that you would get, uh, in, in, in, in products like Coca-Cola and, and, uh, Gillette.

在食品行业里,人们吃饭会换来换去——他们也许偏爱 McDonald's,但不同时间还是会去不同的地方。

People move around in the food business from where they eat from— they may favor McDonald's, but they will go to different places at different times.

但如果一个人开始用 Gillette Sensor Plus 刮胡子,在我看来,他很不可能再换到别的品牌去。

And somebody starts shaving with a Gillette Sensor Plus, is very unlikely to go elsewhere, in my view.

所以,它们并不是——我的判断是,在食品行业里,你永远不会得到像 Coca-Cola 在软饮料行业里那种几乎注定会发生的确定性。

And so they do not— you just, you never would get in the food business, in my judgment, quite the inevitability that you would get in the soft drink business with Coca-Cola.

而且在软饮料行业里,你以后也再也得不到这种局面了。

You'll never get it again in the soft drink business.

我的意思是,在软饮料行业里,我是说,他们花了大概从一八八六年开始,到今天才走到这个位置,而它的基础设施简直不可思议。

I mean, it took 100— in the soft drink business, I mean, it took 100— I guess, uh, 1886, to get to the point where they are, and the infrastructure is incredible.

所以,呃,就这种确定性来说,我不会把它完全归到同一个级别里。

And, uh, so, uh, I wouldn't put it quite in the, in the same class in terms of inevitability.

但这并不意味着它不能因为价格合适而成为更好的股票投资,只不过你别想从我这里得到具体价格。

That doesn't mean it can be a better stock investment depending on the price, but you're not going to get the price from me.

而且我了解 Charlie,我怀疑你也没法从他那里得到价格,不过我们可以给他一个机会。

And knowing Charlie, I doubt if you get the price from him, but we'll give him a chance.

各位,他还在呼吸。

He's breathing, folks.

他还在呼吸。

He's breathing.

我们这个已经变成固定流程了。

We've got this down to a routine.

没有,我没什么要补充的,Warren。

No, I have nothing to add, Warren.

好。

Okay.

我其实也没什么要说的。

I didn't have anything to say either.

我只是花的时间更长一点。

I just took longer.