2005年股东大会 · 为什么黄金不是好的投资？ — 文稿

M10:01

早上好，

Good morning, Mr.

M20:02

Buffett 先生和

Buffett and Mr.

M10:03

Munger 先生。

Munger.

M20:03

我叫 Martin O'Leary，来自 Texas 的 Austin。

My name is Martin O'Leary, and I'm from Austin, Texas.

M10:08

Buffett 先生，考虑到你过去关于美元和你持有的外汇远期合约的那些文章，再加上很多国家的经济政策都有让本币贬值的倾向，你觉得黄金能不能被看作是一种可行的投资选择，用来替代纸币？

Mr. Buffett, given your past essays concerning the U.S. dollar and foreign exchange forward contract holdings that you have, and many countries' economic policies that have a tendency to debase their currencies, do you think that gold can be considered a viable investment alternative to paper currencies?

对，我们对黄金没什么热情。

Yeah, we're not enthused about gold.

M20:34

历史上，人们一直觉得，如果一种货币要贬值了，黄金就是第一个避风港。

People historically have felt that was the first refuge from a currency that was going to decline in value.

但是，你知道，一桶石油也是，一英亩土地也是，一份 Coca-Cola 的股权也是，See's Candy 也是。

But, you know, so is a barrel of oil, so is an acre of land, so is a piece of Coca-Cola, so is See's Candy.

比如 See's Candy，如果美元跌了百分之五十，我们卖 See's Candy 的价格就会是现在的两倍。

See's Candy, if the dollar goes down 50%, we will be selling See's Candy for double the present price.

那样的话，我们拿到的 See's Candy 的实际价格其实还是一样的。

We'll be, we'll be getting the same real price for See's Candy.

人们为了买一磅或者两磅装的糖，还是要每周付出差不多一样多的工作分钟数或者小时数。

People will work the same number of minutes or hours per week in order to buy a pound or a 2-pound box of the candy.

所以我们，我们，我们会更愿意持有那种不管货币还值今天这个价，还是只值今天的百分之十，甚至不管大家是不是在用贝壳做交易，都依然有用的资产。

So we, we, we would much prefer some asset that is going to be useful whether the currency is worth what it is today or 10% of what it is today, or whether people are using seashells.

因为人们还是会继续吃，继续喝，继续做各种事情，他们的偏好换算成实际美元之后，对我们来说，经济结果大体上还是差不多的。

In order to transact business, because people will go on eating and they'll go on drinking and doing various things, and their preferences will translate in real dollars, uh, into more or less the same economics for us.

所以，我们不会拿这类资产的所有权去换一大块黄色金属，因为它真正的实用性很低，除非是对那些想逃离美元的人来说有点吸引力。而在我们看来，这些人其实并没有真正想清楚，所谓逃离到底意味着什么，以及他们到底该逃到哪里去。

And we would not trade the ownership of those kind of assets for us for a hunk of yellow metal, which has very little real utility except for people who are looking to flee from the dollar and, in our view, really haven't thought through the consequences of what fleeing would, where they should flee.

Charlie？

Charlie?

M32:05

对，如果你拥有 Berkshire Hathaway 这样的机会，平均来看，黄金就是个很蠢的投资。

Yeah, if you have the opportunities of Berkshire Hathaway, averaged out, gold is a dumb investment.

M22:17

我父亲曾经是个非常狂热的黄金拥护者，所以我小时候常常坐在餐桌旁，我的两个姐妹今天也在场，她们可以作证，我们一直听他讲黄金有多好，那大概是在一九四零年。

My dad was a huge gold enthusiast, so I sat around the dinner table, my two sisters are here too, they will testify to it, we sat around listening to the virtues of gold, and that was in, we'll say, 1940.

那时候黄金是每盎司三十五美元，另外还得算上储存和保险的成本。

And gold at that time was $35 an ounce, and we would have had some storage and insurance costs.

你想啊，六十五年过去了，经历了世界大战、核弹，还有各种各样的事情，金价从三十五美元涨到四百多美元一点点，扣掉那些费用之后，这样的复合回报率并不会让我眼前一亮。

And, you know, here it is 65 years later, world wars, nuclear bombs, all kinds of things, and the compound rate from $35 to a little over $400, less those expenses, is not something that causes me to salivate.

十四号。

Number 14.