M20:43
对，我觉得那篇报道可能有一点点引述得不太准确，不过我肯定说过大致这个意思——我想我当时讲到，我每两年会跟一群人聚一次，我会问他们，如果给他们十万美元、一百万美元、一亿美元、十亿美元，还有其他不同规模的资金，他们觉得自己能把钱以什么样的回报率去复利增长。
Yeah, I think I may have been very slightly misquoted, but I certainly said something to the effect that working— I think I talked about this group I get together every 2 years and how I poll that group as to what they think they could compound money at with $100,000, $1 million, $100 million, $1 billion, and other types of sums.
我当时指出，我每隔几年会聚在一起的这大概六十来个人，他们对回报率的预期，会随着资金规模上升而非常快速地下滑。
And I pointed out how this group of 60 or so people that I get together with every couple years, how their expectations of return would go very rapidly down this slope.
这确实是真的。
It is true.
我想，我想我能说出六个人左右的名字，我觉得他们如果操作一百万美元，能够做到复利增长——或者至少说，一百万美元他们可以做到每年百分之五十的收益，而且如果他们真有这个需要的话，这是可以作为预期的。
I think I, I think I can name half a dozen people that I think could compound, uh, $1 million, or at least they could earn 50% a year on $1 million, have that as an expectation if they needed it.
当然，我的意思是——他们得把全部注意力都放在操作这笔钱上才行。
I mean, I'd have to— they'd have to get their full attention to be working on the sum.
而这些人如果去管理一亿美元或者十亿美元，就不可能再做到任何接近那个水平的回报率了。
And those people could not compound money, $100 million or $1 billion, at anything remotely like that rate.
我的意思是，市场里确实有一些很小很小的角落——如果你们还记得几年前那个 Adam Smith 采访里，我在屏幕上讲过的内容。
I mean, there, there are little tiny areas which, if you follow what I said on the screen there on that Adam Smith interview a few years ago.
如果你从 A 开始，一个一个看过去——你去看所有东西，在你自己的能力圈里，找到那些你能理解其业务的小型证券，我觉得你是可以做到的——而且偶尔你也会发现一些小小的套利机会，或者市场里这里那里的一些小缝隙。
If you start with A and you go through and you just— and you look at everything and you find small securities in your area of competence that you can understand the business, I think you could— and, and occasionally find little arbitrage situations or little wrinkles here and there in the market.
我觉得，操作非常小的一笔钱，确实有机会拿到很高的回报；但是随着资金不断复利变大，这种优势会非常快地消失。因为我觉得，你知道，从一百万美元到一千万美元，这个能力会明显大幅下降——因为确实会有一些很小很小的机会，你能找到，几乎可以确定能拿到很高的回报；但是今天在这个市场上，你找不到很多很大的机会也属于这一类。
I think working with a very small sum that there is an opportunity to earn very high returns, but that advantage disappears very rapidly as the money compounds, because I, you know, from $1 million to $10 million, I would say it would fall off dramatically in terms of the— because there are little— you find very, very small things that, you know, you can make, and you're almost certain to make high returns on, but returns on— but you don't find very big things in that category today.
我就把自己去找这些机会的乐趣留给你们吧。
I'll leave to you the fun of finding them yourselves.
毕竟，把寻宝游戏直接剧透了就太扫兴了。
I mean, terrible to spoil the treasure hunt.
而且说实话，我现在已经不再主动找这些东西了。
And the truth is, I don't look for them anymore.
偶尔我会误打误撞碰到一点，但我现在不是专门做这个的。
Every now and then I'll stumble into something just by accident, but I'm not in the business of looking for them.
我在找的是 Berkshire 能够把钱投进去的机会，而这就把刚才那类东西全都排除掉了。
I'm looking for things that Berkshire could put its money in, and that rules out all of that sort of thing.
Charlie？
Charlie?