F21:38
因为我在一九九九年赚了，我赚了百分之一百以上的利润，在我的—— 好吧，答案是，我们绝不会买任何我们觉得自己不懂的东西。
Because I made, I made over 100% profit in 1999 on my— Okay, well, the answer is we will never buy anything we don't think we understand.
而我们对“懂”的定义，就是我们认为自己有相当大的把握，能够判断这门生意十年后会是什么样。
And our definition of understanding is thinking that we have a reasonable probability of being able to assess where the business will be in 10 years.
不过你知道，我们很乐意。
But, you know, we'd be delighted.
我们这里正好有一位做得非常不错的人，如果他带了名片，你知道，你完全可以—— 你完全可以把钱投给他。
We have a man here who's done very well, and if he has any business cards, you know, you could always— You can always invest with him.
然后，呃，呃，我们也欢迎，你知道，我们可以在 exhibitor section 给你一个展位。
And, uh, uh, we'd, we'd welcome, you know, we, you can, we'll give you a booth in our exhibitor section.
任何想这么做的人，当然都完全可以自由地跟你投，或者通过任何其他他们自己选的人去投。
And anybody that wants to do that is perfectly, uh, obviously free to do it with you or through any other, through anybody else that they select.
现在，外面有一大堆人都说自己能做这件事，也许他们能，也许他们不能。
Now, you have a whole bunch of people out there that say they can do this, and maybe they can and maybe they can't.
也许你能看得出来，哪些人行，哪些人不行。
And maybe you can spot which ones can and can't.
我们唯一知道的赚钱方式，就是尽量去评估企业。
The only way we know how to make money is to try and evaluate businesses.
如果我们没法评估一家 carbon steel company，我们就不买。
And if we can't evaluate a carbon steel company, we don't buy it.
这并不意味着它不是个好买卖。
It doesn't mean it isn't a good buy.
也不意味着它的价格不是远低于它真正的价值。
It doesn't mean it isn't selling for a fraction of its worth.
这只是说明我们不知道该怎么评估它。
It just means we don't know how to evaluate it.
你知道，如果我们没法评估，比如说，在 Brazil 建一个 chemical plant 这种事到底靠不靠谱，我们就不做。
You know, if we can't evaluate, uh, the sensibilities of putting in a chemical plant or something in Brazil, we don't do it.
如果别人知道怎么做，那你知道，那就祝他们更成功。
If somebody else knows how to do it, you know, more power to them.
有各种各样的人，知道怎么用那些—— 我们不会的方法赚钱。
There are all kinds of people that know how to make money in ways that— But we don't.
不过你知道，这是个自由世界，每个人都可以去投那一类东西。
But, you know, it's a free world and everybody can invest in those sort of things.
但是，如果他们通过我们来做这件事，那他们就是犯了错，而且是大错。
But they would be making a mistake, a big mistake, to do it through us.
我的意思是，既然外面有那么多人都说自己知道怎么做，为什么还要挑 Charlie 和我这样的两个人来替你做这种事呢？
I mean, why pick a couple of guys like Charlie and me to do something like that with when you can pick all kinds of other people that say they know how to do it?
顺便说一句，我想补充一点。
I would say this, incidentally.
你刚才提到了一个点，就是大众媒体通常会怎么想这个问题，但我们不把自己—— Charlie 和我都不会——因为股价怎么动，就觉得自己更有钱或者更穷了。
You mentioned a point earlier, which is how the popular press tends to think of things, but we don't consider ourselves— Charlie and I don't— richer or poorer based on what the stock does.
我们真正在意自己是更富还是更穷，取决于企业本身干得怎么样。
We do feel richer or poorer based on what the business does.
所以我们看的是这个业务本身值多少钱，我们不看股价，因为股价对我们来说根本说明不了什么。
So we look at the business as to how much we're worth, and we do not look at the stock price because the stock price doesn't mean a thing to us.
我的意思是，出于很多原因，它都没什么意义。而且更进一步说，你想想看，真要按那个股价去卖几十万股股票，会是什么情况。
I mean, it doesn't for a variety of reasons, but beyond that, imagine trying to sell hundreds of thousands of shares at the stock price.
我们随时都可以把这个企业卖掉。
We can always sell the business.
我们当然不会这么做，但如果真要卖，我们一直都可以按这个企业真正的价值把它卖掉。
We're not going to do it, but we could always sell it for what the business is worth.
可我们的股票未必能按那个——也就是未必能按市场上的股价卖出去那么多。
We can't sell our stock for what the— necessarily what the stock price is.
所以我们完全是从评估自身净资产的角度来看这个企业。
So we look at the business entirely as in terms of evaluating our net worth.
我们认为，一九九九年我们的净资产只上涨了非常非常少，一点点而已。
We figure our net worth went up very, very slightly, very slightly in 1999.
而且不管股票当时卖到什么价位，我们都会这么判断，因为我们看的是企业本身。
And we would figure that no matter what the stock was selling for, it just doesn't make any difference because we do look at the businesses.
我们真的就是把它当成一只根本没有报价的股票来看，因为我们不知道股价接下来会怎么走。
We really look at it as if there wasn't any quote on the stock because we don't know what the stock is going to do.
如果企业的内在价值以合理的速度增长，长期来看股价会跟上，但它不一定会按周、按月，或者按年来同步反映。
If we do— if the business gets worth more at a reasonable rate, the stock will follow over time, but it won't necessarily follow week by week or month by month or year by year.
我们在一九九九年过得很糟，但股价对这一点的反映，既不精准，甚至连大致贴近都谈不上。
We had a lousy year in 1999, but the stock price did not calibrate with that in any perfect or close to perfect manner.
还有些时候我们业绩很好，但股价却被炒得离谱地高。
And we've had good years other times when the stock price is way overpriced.
或者说，把这一年里实际发生的情况夸大了。
Or overdescribe what happened during the year.
所以我们一直都是用企业本身来衡量一切。
So we really measure it all the time by the business.
我们基本上把它看成一家 private business，只不过这家公司刚好有一个市场报价。
We think of it as a private business, basically, for which there's a quotation.
如果那个报价用起来方便，比如拿来多买一些股票之类的，我们可能会利用一下。
And if it's handy to use that quotation, either in buying more stock or something of the sort, we may do it.
但它不会左右我们对价值的判断。
But it does not govern our ideas of value.
Charlie？
Charlie?