2005年股东大会 · 巴菲特经典口号之：不要做空美国 — 文稿

M10:00

谢谢。

Thank you.

我是一名来自 St. Louis 的医生，我想感谢你，也感谢在座的各位，因为我就是那种对钱或者金融真的不太懂的医生。

I'm a physician from St. Louis, and I want to thank you and everyone here because I'm one of these doctors that really doesn't know anything about money or finance.

钱是会进来，但我不知道该拿它做什么。

The money comes in, but I don't know what to do with it.

我没办法真正评估一家公司的财务实力，但我能评估这家公司的道德实力，所以这也是为什么我和在座的大多数人一样，把自己的积蓄放在 Berkshire Hathaway 里，会觉得特别安心。

I'm not able to really evaluate the financial strength of a company, but I can evaluate the ethical strength of the company, and that's why I feel real comfortable, like most of us here, having our savings in Berkshire Hathaway.

M20:33

谢谢。

Thank you.

M10:38

这个问题大概已经用不同方式被问过了，不过几年前，我认识的一个人——他曾经是 Magellan Fund 的经理——提醒过我们，说股市接下来大概会有一个非常糟糕的十年左右。

This question has probably been asked in different ways already, but several years ago, a fellow I know who had been manager of the Magellan Fund warned that we were going to have a terrible decade or so in the stock market.

原因就是到目前为止大家提到的那些事：利率上升、失控的开支、美元走弱、滞胀可能马上就来了、Social Security 的问题，甚至还有 Charlie Munger 提到的那一点——我发现，我们最优秀、最聪明的毕业生，很多都跑去做资金管理了，而不是——他们没有去当医生，也没有去做分子生物学家，或者拿 chemical engineering 的 PhD。

Because of all the things people have brought up so far, the increasing interest rates and runaway spending and decreasing dollar and stagflation may be right around the corner, Social Security problems, and even what Charlie Munger referred to, that most of our best and brightest graduates, I find, are going into money management rather than— they're not becoming doctors or molecular biologists or PhDs in chemical engineering.

所以，考虑到就在一两年前，大家对股市上涨、只要把钱放进股市就能让每个人发财这件事，情绪上还是一片亢奋；可现在看起来，这种亢奋已经退下来了，我听到的反而是对熊市的预期。

And so, in view of the fact that a year or two ago, there was still an ebullience of emotion about the stock market going up and making everyone rich just by having their money in the stock market, it seems like that ebullience has dropped and I'm hearing an anticipation of a bear market.

而且我记得你几年前写过，说在牛市里很难赚到钱，真正的机会是在熊市里出现的。

And you wrote, I think several years ago, that it's hard to make money in a bull market and the real opportunities come in a bear market.

所以我想问问，如果接下来这几年市场真的会变得很惨淡，你能不能给我们一点线索，说说你的策略会是什么？

So I'm wondering if you would give us a clue as to what your strategies are going to be if it's really true that the market gets dismal over the next few years.

M21:59

嗯，如果市场变得更便宜，我们就会有更多机会，用钱去做聪明的事。

Well, if the market gets cheaper, we will have many more opportunities to do intelligent things with money.

至于在这期间我们会不会先把钱乱花掉，那是另外一个问题。不过你知道，我们会一直买各种东西，买这个买那个——经营性企业、股票、高收益债券，不管是什么——只要我还活着，我们就会一直买。

Now, whether we will have blown the money in the meantime or something is another question, but, but, you know, we are going to be buying things, one thing or another— operating businesses, stocks, high-yield bonds, whatever— we're going to be buying things, uh, for as long as I live.

就像——就像我会一直买杂货一样。

Just as long— just like I'm going to be buying groceries.

M32:26

比那还久，Warren。

Longer than that, Warren.

M22:28

对，嗯，对，Charlie 就是在等着我——之后接班。总之，我这辈子剩下的时间都会一直买杂货。

Yeah, well, yeah, Charlie's just waiting to take over after I— and I'm going to be buying groceries the rest of my life.

那如果我明天、下周、下个月、明年都还要买杂货的话，我是更希望杂货价格上涨，还是下跌呢？

Now, would I rather have grocery prices go up or down if I'm going to be buying groceries tomorrow and next week and next month and next year?

答案显然是，如果我是净买家，那价格越低，我的情况就会越好。

And the answer is obviously, if I'm a net buyer, I would— I will do better if prices are lower.

我们不——我们并不擅长预测市场。

We have no— we're not good at forecasting markets.

我的意思是，我们知道在七十年代中期，我们碰到的是巨大的便宜货。

I mean, we knew that we were getting enormous bargains in the mid-'70s.

我们也知道，到了九十年代后期，市场在某种程度上已经疯了。

We knew that the market went crazy to some extent in the late '90s.

但是我们没有太多——我们根本不花时间——Charlie 和我从来不花时间去想、去聊股市接下来会怎么样，因为我们不知道。

But we don't have much— we don't spend any time— Charlie and I spend no time thinking or talking about what the stock market is going to do, because we don't know.

我们有时候确实知道，当我们买进一些——不管是股票还是债券——的时候，我们的钱买到了非常好的价值。

We do know sometimes that we're getting very good value for our money when we buy some, some stocks or some bonds, as it may be.

但我们的操作，并不是建立在任何关于股市的宏观预测之上的。

But we are not operating on the basis of any kind of macro forecasts about stocks.

而且，永远都会有一长串理由——

And there's always a list of reasons—.

M33:34

你刚刚就举了几个——

You gave a few—.

M23:35

永远都会有一长串理由说明这个国家明天会遇到问题，但同时也永远都会有一长串机会，只不过这些机会没那么常被人提起。

There's always a list of reasons why the country will have problems tomorrow, but there's always a list of opportunities which don't get mentioned quite as often.

所以我们不会坐下来，把经济里正在发生的坏事和好事分别列个清单，然后据此去预判股市——市场未必会那么走；就算你真能准确预测出一些坏事或者好事，它也不是那样运行的。

So we don't sit down and make a list of the bad things that are happening in the economy and the good things that are happening, and therefore expect the stock market— it might not— it doesn't behave that way, even if you could correctly forecast some of the bad things or good things.

总体上，我对这个国家是极度看多的。

Overall, I'm an enormous bull on the country.

我的意思是，从长期来看，如果你认真想想，这是世界历史上最了不起的成功故事。

I mean, over time, this is the most remarkable success story in the history of the world, if you think about it.

我是说，1790 年的时候，这个国家的人口还不到四百万。

I mean, in 1790, we had less than 4 million people in this country.

我们当时——中国有两亿九千万人口。

We had— there were 290 million people in China.

欧洲有一亿人口，你知道，而且——而且他们的智力水平跟我们是一样的。

There were 100 million people in Europe, you know, and, and they all had the same intellect we had.

他们所处的大致气候条件也差不多。

They were in the same general climate.

他们还有很多自然资源。

They had lots of natural resources.

而两百一十五年之后，那——那三百九十万人，我想，实际上——你知道，现在我想其实是三千九百万人。

And 215 years later, that— those 3.9 million people, I think, actually— you know, now 39 million people, I think, actually.

你知道，拥有了大概全球百分之三十的 GDP。

You know, have 30% or so of the world's GDP.

所以，做空 America 是讲不通的。

So it does not make sense to bet against America.

这也不代表我们所有政策都很明智，或者别的什么。

That doesn't mean all our policies are smart or anything.

但我不会——我对这个国家不会变得悲观。

But I would not— I do not get pessimistic on the country.

你知道，我担心的是——我的意思是，最大的担心，是恐怖分子或者掌握 nuclear、chemical 或者 biological weapons 的政府可能造成的事情。

You know, I worry about the— I mean, the big worry is what can be done by either terrorists or governments that have access to nuclear, chemical, or biological weapons.

但就这个国家最基本的经济面来说，你的孩子会活得比你更好，你的孙辈会活得比你的孩子更好。

But in terms of the basic economics of the country, your children are going to live better than you live, and your grandchildren are going to live better than your children live.

而且我们不会把重点放在宏观因素上。

And we do not focus on macro factors.

Charlie？

Charlie?

M35:16

嗯，我同意你的看法，这个国家的经济在未来相当长一段时间里，可能还是会继续增长。

Well, I agree with you that the economics of the country are probably going to increase for a considerable period ahead.

但我怀疑，在一些非常重要的方面，我们正处在，或者接近于，一个伟大文明的顶点。

But I suspect that in very important ways, we are at or near the apex of a great civilization.

M25:36

各位，你们可是头一回在这儿听到这个说法。

You heard it here first, folks.

如果把 NCB——nuclear、chemical、biological——这一块先放在一边，我倒不这么看，不过二十年或者三十年之后，你们就会知道我们俩到底谁对了。

If you leave the NCB— nuclear, chemical, biological— out of it, I do not feel that way, but you'll get to see which one of us is right 20 or 30 years from now.

但我见过太多人因为只盯着某一个经济变量，或者这个国家面临的某一个问题，就错过了机会。

But I have seen more people pass up opportunities because they get focused on a single economic variable or a single problem that the country faces.

然后他们就把那些好的东西给忘了。

And they forget about, about the good things.

我的意思是，如果你能以很有吸引力的价格买到非常好的企业，却说，我想我还是先等等吧，因为明年价格也许会再便宜一点，或者诸如此类，再加上世界可能要完蛋了——这就太荒唐了。

I mean, if you can buy very good businesses at attractive prices, it's crazy to say, I think I'll sit this out because it might get a little cheaper next year or something of the sort, and because the world's going to go to hell.

我们就是——我们从来不是这么做事的。

We just— we've never operated that way.

我们从来没有因为一个宏观看法，就决定不去买一家我们喜欢的企业，对吧？

We've never decided not to buy a business we like because of a macro view, have we?

M36:42

还没有。

Not yet.

M26:43

好吧。

Okay.

想让他真的同意你，可不容易。

It's hard to get him to really agree with you.

这事我已经努力好多年了。

I've been working on it for years.

第十一题。

Number 11.