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1998年股东大会 · 巴菲特:一份优秀的年报应该是怎样的?

36 段 · 3 位说话人 · 原片 3:58
M1
M10:00

大家好,我是来自 San Francisco 的 Steve Davis。

Hello, I'm Steve Davis from San Francisco.

我想请教您,年报该怎么读、怎么理解,您会看什么,什么重要,什么不重要,还有您这些年来读了几千份报告之后,都学到了些什么。

I'd like your advice on how to understand annual reports, what you look for, what's important, what's not important, and what you've learned over the years from reading thousands of reports.

谢谢。

Thank you.
M2
M20:18

嗯,我们确实读过很多报告,这个我可以告诉你。

Well, we've read a lot of reports, I will tell you that.

然后我们,呃,怎么说呢,我们会先看那些我们觉得自己能看懂的公司的报告。

And we, uh, well, we start by looking at the reports of companies that we think we can understand.

所以我们希望找到——我们希望自己读的是那些,而且我,我每年确实会读几百份——

So we hope to find— we hope to be reading reports, and I, and I do read hundreds of them every year.

我们希望读到的是那些我们自己能理解的企业的报告。

We hope to be reading reports of businesses that are understandable to us.

然后,我们会从报告里看,管理层有没有告诉我们:如果我们拥有这家公司百分之百的股权,我们最想知道的那些事情。

And then we see from that report whether the management is telling us about the things that we would want to know about if we owned 100% of the company.

当我们遇到这样的管理层——他们确实会把这些事情告诉我们,像子公司经理跟我们沟通时那样坦诚,而且说的话我们也听得懂——那当然会大大提升我们投资这类企业的意愿。

And when we find a management that does tell us about those things and that is candid in the same way that a manager of a subsidiary would be candid with us and talks in language that we can understand, it definitely improves our feeling about investing in such a business.

而且——对投资这类企业的感觉肯定会更好;反过来,如果不是这样,就会在某种程度上让我们倒胃口。

And the— It definitely improves our feeling about investing in such a business, and the reverse turns us off to some extent.

所以,如果我们读到一大堆公关套话、空话,我们的标准是:读完这份年报之后,我们应该比拿起它之前更懂这门生意。

So if we read a bunch of public relations gobbledygook, we want to understand the business better when we get through with the annual report than when we picked it up.

如果管理层愿意这么做,其实一点都不难。

And that is not difficult for management to do if they want to do it.

如果他们不愿意这么做,那么你知道,这在我们判断未来大概十年左右,要不要跟他们做伙伴时,就是一个考虑因素。

If they don't want to do it, you know, we, we think that is a factor, uh, in whether we want to be their partners over a 10-year period or so.

不过,我们的确从年报里学到了很多。

But we've learned a lot from annual reports.

比如说,我会说,Coca-Cola 过去很多年的年报,都是信息量极大的文件。

For example, I would say that the Coca-Cola annual report over the last good many years has been an enormously informative document.

我的意思是,我想不出来——我想不出来有什么情况下,就算我跟 Roberto Goizueta,或者现在的 Doug Ivester,当面聊这门生意,他们能告诉我的,也不会比我从那份年报里读到的更多。

I mean, I can't— I can't think of any way, if I had had a conversation with Roberto Goizueta or now Doug Ivester and they were telling me about the business, they would not be telling me more than I get from reading that annual report.

我们买那只股票,就是基于一份年报。

We bought that stock based on an annual report.

在买入我们那部分持股之前,我们没有基于任何一种和 Coca-Cola 最高管理层的谈话来做决定。

We did not buy it based on any conversation of any kind with the top management of Coca-Cola before we bought our interest.

我们就是单纯基于阅读年报,再加上我们对这个生意怎么运作的了解,就买了。

We simply bought it based on reading the annual report plus our knowledge of how the business worked.
M3
M32:15

Charlie?

Charlie?

对,我确实觉得——如果你看到一整套标准化的流行术语,像是出自同一家咨询公司,那真的特别让人倒胃口。

Yeah, I do think the— if you've got a standardized bunch of popular jargon that looks like it came out of the same consulting firm, I do think it's a big turn-off.

这倒不是说,有些咨询界的那套口号就一定不对,但我觉得,坦诚、简单、连贯的文字,价值非常大。

That's not to say that some of the consulting mantras aren't right, but I think there's a lot for sort of candid, simple, coherent prose.

这真的很有可取之处。

A lot to be said for it.
M2
M22:44

几乎每一门生意都会有问题,而我们只是默认,经理人应该把这些问题告诉我们。

Almost every business has problems, and we just assume the manager would tell us about them.

这是我们希望自己经营的那些企业也能做到的。

We would, we would like that in the businesses we run.

事实上,有一件事——我们平时很少给经理人提建议,但有一句话我们一定会说,那就是坏消息要立刻告诉我们。

In fact, one of the things— we give very little advice to our managers, but one thing we always do say is to tell us the bad news immediately.

而且我看不出来,为什么这对一家上市公司的经理人来说,不会是个好建议。

And I don't see why that isn't good advice for the, the manager of a public company.

从长期来看,你知道,我很确定这是最——你知道,我很确定这是最好的做法。

Over time, you know, I'm positive it's the best— you know, I'm positive it's the best policy.

但很多公司就是拼命想不停地往外释放他们认为的好消息。

But a lot of companies, they're dying just to pump out what they think is good news all the time.

他们抱着一种心态,你知道,就好像外面有一群等着喂食的动物,他们得一直喂这些东西,喂它们想吃的那一口。

And they have this attitude that, you know, that you've got a bunch of animals out there to be fed and that they're going to feed them what they want to eat all the time.

慢慢地,那些动物也会学会。

And over time, the animals learn.
M3
M33:30

对。

Right.
M2
M23:31

所以——我们会尽量避开那种生意。

So it's— we try and stay away from businesses like that.
M3
M33:35

你在年报里很少会看到这样一句话:这是个非常严重的问题,而我们还没有完全想好该怎么处理。

What you seldom see in an annual report is a sentence like this: this is a very serious problem and we haven't quite figured out yet how to handle it.

但请相信我,很多时候,这其实才是准确的说法。

But believe me, that is an accurate statement much of the time.

好,第三区。

All right, Zone 3.