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中国股市是否比美国股市有更多机会?

40 段 · 3 位说话人 · 原片 4:03
F1
F10:00

您好,早上好,Buffett先生、Munger先生。

Hi, good morning, Mr. Buffett and Mr. Munger.

我叫Steffi Yu,来自Horizon Insights。这是一家总部位于上海、专注于中国市场的研究公司。

My name is Steffi Yu from Horizon Insights, a China-focused research firm based in Shanghai.

我在中国有很多共同基金客户,他们都非常年轻,至少相对来说更年轻一些,而且管理的资金规模也比较小。

So I have a lot of mutual fund clients in China who are very young, relatively younger, and they manage a smaller portion of funds.

所以我的问题是,假设您现在的投资组合里只有十亿美元,您今天会怎样调整自己的投资?

So my question is, if you only have $1 billion in your portfolio, today, how would you change your investments?

您会不会考虑在中国这样的新兴市场寻找更多投资机会?

Would you consider more investment opportunities in emerging markets such as China?

谢谢。

Thank you.
M1
M10:38

我会。我是说,如果我管理的是十亿美元,我可能会在美国这个三十万亿美元的市场里寻找机会,因为总的来说,相比世界其他地方,我对美国市场的了解要更深入一些。

Yeah, I would, I would say if, if I were working with a billion, I would probably find within a $30 trillion market in the United States where I understood things better just generally than I do around the world.

我可能会在那里找到一些机会,顺便说一句,这些机会的吸引力可能会明显高于我们管理几千亿美元时能够找到的机会。

I'd probably find opportunities there that would be better, incidentally, by some margin than what we can find for hundreds of billions.

但我不会排除新兴市场,绝对不会。

But I wouldn't—there's no way I'd rule out emerging markets.

大概十五年前,有一次我觉得这件事挺有意思,也让我想起了年轻时的感觉。于是某个周末,我翻了一本韩国股票目录,然后买了一些股票,而且那些都是小公司。

There was a time, 15 years ago or so, when just because it was kind of interesting and it took me back to my youth, on a weekend, I went through a directory of Korean stocks, and I bought—and these were small stocks.

当然,按韩国企业或者美国企业的标准来看,它们算是小公司。

Well, they were small by the standards of either Korean or American business.

但其实它们都是大公司,只是从统计数据来看,我发现其中有十五到二十家公司估值很便宜。

They were big companies, but I found 15 or 20 that were statistically cheap.

我自己每家公司都买了一些。

Bought some of each one myself.

资金规模比较小的时候,你可以做一些我们根本做不了的事情,市场上确实有这样的机会。

There are opportunities with smaller amounts of money to do things that we just can't do.

我通常第一反应还是会先把美国市场仔细筛一遍,不过我也研究过其他国家的市场。

My first inclination always would be to comb through things in the United States, and, but I've gone through in other countries.

我可能不会进入特别特别小的市场,因为在那里甚至连交易执行和税务处理都会遇到很多困难,还有各种各样的问题。

I probably wouldn't get into very, very small markets because there can be a lot of difficulties even in market execution and taxation, a lot of things.

你是能找到这些机会的。

You can find it.

如果你在美国、中国、英国以及其他几个地方都找不到,那你大概也不会在别的地方找到。

If you can't find it, you know, in America and China and Britain and a few other places, you probably aren't going to find it someplace else.

你可能会以为自己找到了,但那可能是一种完全不同的游戏。你知道,我们的问题在于资金规模,而不是地理位置。

You may think you found it, but there may be—it may be a different game than, you know, our problem is size, not geography.

Charlie,你怎么看?

Charlie?
M2
M22:45

其实,我持有的中国股票占比已经比你高了,所以我支持这位年轻女士的看法。

Well, I already have more stocks in China than you do as a percentage, so I'm with the young lady.
M1
M12:56

好吧,那你想说说具体是哪几家公司吗?

Okay, well, you can—you want to name names?

这些股票有名字吗,还是说……

Do these stocks have names, or—
M2
M23:01

没有,我不想说。

No, I don't.

Charlie,这个问题……

Charlie, this question—
M1
M13:07

我还想补充一点。

I should just add one thing.

你在中国会找到大量机会。

You will find plenty of opportunities in China.

Charlie会说,相比一个拥有同样资金规模、但在美国投资的人,你拥有更好的狩猎场。

Charlie would say you've got a better hunting ground than even a person with similar capital in the United States.

你同意这一点吗?

Would you agree with that?
M2
M23:18

我同意。

Yes, I do.
M1
M13:18

对,对。

Yeah, yeah.

所以从某种意义上说,这种情况是合理的,因为这也是一个更年轻的市场。

So, and in a sense, it's logical that should be the case because it's a younger market as well.

但它依然是一个很大的市场。

But still a large market.

所以,市场可能会随着发展和成熟,逐渐变得更有效率。

So that markets probably work toward efficiency as they age.

三十年前,日本就出现过一种非常奇怪的情况,权证的定价明显偏离合理水平,还有各种类似的现象。过了一段时间,人们注意到了这些问题,然后这种现象就消失了。

Japan had this very strange situation with warrants being priced out of line and all of that 30 years ago, and people noticed after a while, and it disappears.

但是,市场在发展过程中,确实可能会出现一些非常奇怪的事情。

But there can be some very strange things happen in, in markets as they develop.

我想你也同意这一点,对吧,Charlie?

I think you'd agree with that, Charlie, wouldn't you?
M2
M24:01

当然。

Absolutely.
M1
M14:02

对。

Yeah.

Jonathan?

Jonathan?