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疫情期间,BRK为何没有像金融危机时那样下重注投资

52 段 · 3 位说话人 · 原片 5:25
F1
F10:00

好。

All right.

下一个问题来自 Liendar。

This next question comes from Liendar.

他的问题是,在上一次金融危机里,Berkshire 作为支撑性贷款方,参与了 8 笔不同的交易。

And his question is, in the last financial crisis, Berkshire acted as a lender of support for 8 different deals.

尽管通过优先股注入了高成本资本,还拿到了认股权证,这些公司其实是在危机中为 Berkshire 所传递的信心付费,而这非常有价值。

Despite the injection of expensive capital through preferred stocks and securing warrants, these companies were in fact paying for the sign of confidence from Berkshire in the midst of a crisis, and that was invaluable.

今天我们有 QE infinity、低利率,还有嗷嗷待哺的 hedge funds。

Today we have QE infinity, low interest rates, and hungry hedge funds.

尽管过去几个月里,经济已经迅速恶化,几个月。

Even though the economy has deteriorated rapidly over the last few months, few months.

为什么我们没有作为支撑性贷款方出手?

Why have we not acted as a lender of support?
M1
M10:31

嗯,我们还没看到什么有吸引力的东西。

Well, we haven't seen anything attractive.

而且说实话,这本来不是基于这一点,但 Federal Reserve 反应是对的,而且他们做得非常及时,他们本来就该这么做。

And frankly, it wasn't predicated on this, but the Federal Reserve did the right thing and they did it very promptly, which they should have.

我对他们表示敬意。

And I salute them for it.

但这意味着,很多需要钱的公司,也许本来应该更早一点融资,不过它们都是相当不错的公司,在过去大概 5 周左右的时间里,有机会大规模融资。

But that means that a lot of companies that needed money and probably should have done their financing a little earlier, but they're perfectly decent companies, got the chance to finance in huge ways in the last, uh, 5 weeks or thereabouts.

我的意思是,这都创纪录了。

I mean, it's set records.

有些公司甚至回头融资了两次。

Some companies have come back twice.

还有一些非常大的公司,之前懒得把借款期限往后延一延,结果也来过好几次。

A number of very big companies that didn't bother to, to, uh, extend out their borrowings, uh, came a couple times.

Berkshire 其实也又筹了一些钱。

Berkshire actually raised some more money.

我们不需要,但我想,从长远看这还是个好主意。

We don't, we don't need it, but we'll I think it's still a good idea over time.

而且,还有一些情况相当边缘的公司,也拿到了资金。

And, uh, and then there are some pretty marginal companies that have also had access to money.

所以,资金一点都不短缺,而且利率也不是我们会投资的那种。

So there is no shortage of, of funds at, uh, rates which we would not invest at.

所以我们什么也没做,因为我们没看到任何特别有吸引力的机会可做。

So we have not, we have not done anything because we don't see anything that attractive to do.

现在,这种情况可能会很快改变,也可能不会变。

Now, that could change, you know, very quickly, or it may not change.

但是在 2008 年和 2009 年,事实是,我们买那些东西并不是为了向世界表态。

But in 2008 and '09, the truth is we weren't, we weren't buying those things to make a statement to the world.

它们在某种程度上也许确实向世界传递了某种信号,如果真是这样,我也很高兴。

They may have made a statement to the world to some extent, and I'm glad that they did if they did.

但我们买它们,是因为那看起来是很明智的做法,而且市场环境使得我们其实没有太多竞争。

But we made them because they seemed intelligent things to do, and markets were such that we didn't really have much competition.

结果证明,如果我们等上 4、5 个月再去做类似的事,会好得多。

Now, it turned out that we would have been a lot better off if we'd waited 4 or 5 months to do similar things.

所以我在 2008 年或 2009 年的时机其实糟透了,但当时能买到的东西太有吸引力了,以至于尽管我的时机很差,我们最后还是表现得还不错,或者说,比还不错还要好一点。

So my timing was actually terrible in 2008 or '09, but the what was available was so attractive that even though my timing was terrible, we still, we still came out okay, or a little bit better than okay.

但我们做的事并不是为了表态。

But it was not designed what we did was not designed to make a statement.

它是为了利用我们认为非常有吸引力的条款,只不过在当时,因为市场处于恐慌状态,没人愿意给出那样的条款。

It was designed to take advantage of what we thought were very attractive terms, but they were terms that nobody else was willing to offer at that time because the market was in a state of panic.

而当病毒在美国爆发,或者说开始蔓延,并且情况变得明显时,股市在短时间内陷入了恐慌,债券市场也被冻结了,或者正处在冻结过程中。

And the market in equities was in a state of panic for a short period of time when the virus broke out and or spread in the United States, and it became apparent And the debt market was frozen or in the process of freezing.

而 Fed 一出手,这种情况就剧烈改变了。

And that changed dramatically when the Fed acted.

但谁知道下周、下个月,或者明年会发生什么呢?

But who knows what happens next week or next month or next year?

美联储不知道。

The Fed doesn't know.

呃,我不知道。

Uh, I don't know.

呃,而且,也没有人知道。

Uh, and, and nobody knows.

呃,这里会出现各种不同的情况——有很多不同的情景都可能发生。

Uh, there's various— there's a lot of different scenarios that can play out.

而在某些情景下,我们会花很多钱。

And under some scenarios, we'll spend a lot of money.

在另外一些情景下,我们不会。

In other scenarios, we won't.

Greg,你一直在关注 Berkshire 周围发生的事。

Greg, you've been watching what's been happening around Berkshire.
M2
M23:41

嗯。

Yeah.

嗯。

Yeah.

嗯,我觉得你对美联储的评论,Warren,因为你也知道,挺有意思的是,一开始事情发生的时候,电话就打进来了,不是我们感兴趣的那种交易规模,也不是我们愿意出手的公司。

Well, I think your comment on the, on the Fed, Warren, because as you know, interestingly, when it was first occurring, there were calls coming in, not the size of transactions we're interested in nor companies we were inclined to act upon.

但确实有那么一种普遍的关注,因为大家都处在一个困难时期,也就是说,大家都在看自己的资产负债表,然后决定要怎么做。

But there were— there was that general interest out there as people were in a difficult point in time, i.e., looking at their balance sheet and deciding what they were going to do.

但实际情况是,那些公司并不符合条件,或者说,我们对它们不感兴趣。

But the reality is those companies were not of— not of interest.

而在那之后,基本上从 3 月 23 日起,公司就能够采取行动了。

And post— basically effectively March 23rd, the companies have been able to act.

Warren 在 Berkshire Hathaway Energy 也提到了这一点。

And Warren touched on it at Berkshire Hathaway Energy.

在美联储行动之后,我们实际上发行了 40 亿美元的证券,用来对应我们到期的一些债务或义务。

Post the Fed action, we actually issued $4 billion of securities that was associated with some debts or obligations we had mature.

还有一些短期义务,我们显然希望把期限拉长。

Some short-term obligations we wanted to clearly lengthen out.

而且我们还提前为 Pacific Corp 的一项资本项目准备了资金,想着这正是把资金安排到位的时机,这样我们就可以推进一件对 Pacific Corp、对我们的客户,最终也对 Berkshire 的股东都非常好的机会。

And we prefunded one of our capital programs at Pacific Corp with the thought this was the time to get the funds in place such that we could proceed with what is really an excellent opportunity both for Pacific Corp, our customers, and ultimately for the Berkshire shareholders.

所以,正如 Warren 所说,我们已经在 Berkshire 内部采取了行动。

So we've taken action within Berkshire, as Warren noted.
M1
M15:03

现在是借钱的好时候,呃,这也就意味着,放贷可能就没那么好了。

This is a very good time to borrow money, uh, which means it may not be such a great time to lend money.

但,呃,呃,对国家来说,这是好事,因为借钱的时机很好——这是个借钱的好时候。

But the, uh, uh, it's good for the country that it's a good— it's a good time to borrow money.

这对 Berkshire 本身倒不算特别好,不过我们也借了一些钱,所以,呃,我们是言行一致的。

Not good for Berkshire particularly, although we, we borrowed some money, so we, we, uh, we've, uh, we put our money where our mouth is.
M2
M25:24

嗯。

Hmm.