F1
F10:00
你好，Warren。
Hi, Warren.
你好，Charlie。
Hi, Charlie.
很高兴来到这里。
Great to be here.
很高兴来到这里。
Great to be here.
而且这是我第一次来这里。
And this is my first time here.
我的问题能被回答，真的是非常幸运。
Incredibly lucky to have my question answered.
所以我的问题是这样的。
So my question is this.
你能不能说出至少五个公司特征，让你有信心去预测它未来十年的盈利情况？
Can you name at least 5 characteristics of a company that gives you confidence to predict its earnings 10 years out in the future?
还有，你能不能也用 IBM 当个案例，讲讲它是怎么符合这些条件的？
And can you also use IBM as a case study, how it checked all those boxes?
M1
M10:36
Charlie，你的五条是什么？
Charlie, what are your 5?
我们在买企业这件事上，并没有一套放之四海而皆准的标准。
We don't have a one-size-fits-all system for buying businesses.
它们都不一样。
They're all different.
每个行业都不一样。
Every industry is different.
而且我们也一直在学习。
And we also keep learning.
所以，我们十年前做的事，现在希望是做得更好了，但我们没法给你一个能帮到你的公式。
So what we did 10 years ago, we hopefully are doing better now, but we can't give you a formula that will help you.
M2
M21:01
如果你看的是像我们二零零九年研究 BNSF Railroad，或者二零一四年看 Van Tuyl 这样的案子，我们脑子里会过很多东西，而其中大多数，都是让我们决定不要再往下看的因素。
Now, if you're looking at the BNSF Railroad as we were in 2009, or if you're looking at Van Tuyl in 2014, there are a lot of things that go through our minds, and most of the things that go through our minds are things that will stop us from going further.
我的意思是，我们有一层层筛选标准，而且有很多事情，只要我们在一家企业里看到——包括也许跟我们打交道的人是谁——就会让我们不再进入下一层。
I mean, there's—the filters are there, and there are a lot of things that if we see it in a business, including maybe who we're dealing with, will stop us from going on to the next layer.
但不同企业之间，差别是非常大的。
But it's very different in different businesses.
我们在找的是那种我们觉得自己对它五年后或十年后会是什么样子，能有一个相当靠谱判断的东西，而这确实会排除掉很多很多企业。
We are looking for things where we do think we've got some reasonable fix on how it's going to look in 5 or 10 years, and that does eliminate a great many businesses.
但绝对不是同样的五个问题。
But it's not the same 5 questions at all.
当然了，当我们买一家企业，而且卖给我们的人还会继续替我们经营这家企业时，一个非常大的问题就是：我们到底是不是真的愿意跟这个人长期合作，并且相信他在未来不再拥有这家企业的时候，还会像过去拥有它的时候那样行事？
Certainly, when we're buying a business where we're going to have somebody that's selling it to us continue to run it for us, a very big question is, do we really want to be in partnership with this person and count on them to behave in the future when they don't own the business as they behaved in the past when they do own the business?
这一点就会让相当一部分交易停下来，但我没法给你五条。
And that stops a fair number of deals, but I can't give you 5.
我们没有一份五条清单，或者如果有的话，那也是 Charlie 没告诉我。
We don't have a list of 5, or if we do, Charlie's kept it from me.
M1
M12:24
你还想补充点什么吗？
Do you want anything more?
没有。
No.
Becky？
Becky?