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1998年股东大会 · 巴菲特:成功的投资是那些卖掉后继续上涨的股票

36 段 · 3 位说话人 · 原片 3:29
F1
F10:00

我的问题是,嗯,你以前曾经持有过 Disney,后来又卖掉了。

My question, um, you owned Disney once before and sold it.

我记得你在七十年代也持有过一些广告公司,对吧?

You also owned advertising companies in the '70s, I believe, right?

后来你也把它们卖掉了。

And you sold them.

能不能跟我们讲讲,你当时为什么会卖掉它们?

Could we have some insight into your thinking as to why you sold them?
M1
M10:19

我不太确定我愿不愿意跟你透露这里面的思路。

I'm not sure I want to give you any insight into that thinking.

不过呢,先说个事实吧,我十一岁的时候,买过一些 Cities Service Preferred,买入价是三十八美元,后来涨到两百美元,但我在四十美元的时候就卖掉了。

Well, we'll start off with the fact that when I was 11, I bought some Cities Service Preferred at $38 and it went to $200, but I sold at $40.

也就是说,我抓住了每股两美元的利润。

So grabbing my $2 a share of profit.
M2
M20:37

所以我——。

So I had—.
M1
M10:37

我们卖掉过的每一样东西,呃,后来都涨了,只不过有些东西后来涨得更让人心痛而已。

Everything we've ever sold, uh, has gone up subsequently, but some of them have gone up more painfully subsequently than others.

而且,毫无疑问,六十年代卖掉 Disney 是个巨大的错误。

And, and certainly the Disney sale in the '60s was a huge mistake.

我当时本来应该继续买进的。

I should have been buying.

我倒是把“持有”这件事给忘了。

I did forget about, about holding.

而且,呃,这种事发生过很多次。

And, uh, that's happened many times.

我的意思是,我们觉得,任何被我们卖掉的东西,之后都应该还会上涨,因为我们持有的是好企业。我们也许会卖掉它们,是因为我们需要钱去做别的事,但我们仍然认为它们是好企业,而我们也认为,好企业随着时间推移会越来越值钱。

I mean, we, we think that anything we sell should go up subsequently because we own good businesses, and we may sell them because we need money for something else, but we still think they're good businesses, and we think good businesses are going to be worth more over time.

所以,不过我得说,卖掉 Disney 的确是个错误。

So, but I must say that, that selling Disney was a mistake.

实际上,那些广告公司在我们卖掉之后,表现也一直非常好。

And actually, the ad agencies have done very well since we sold them too.

当然,也许那笔钱后来投到了 Coca-Cola 或者别的什么地方,所以我——我并不为这个担心。

Now, maybe some of that money went into Coca-Cola or something else, so I— I don't worry about that.

坦白说,如果我卖掉一大堆东西,结果都刚好卖在顶部,那我反而会担心,因为那就说明,实际上我是在用那种 Bigger Fool 式的投资方法,而我不认为这种方法能长期奏效。

I would worry, frankly, if I sold a bunch of things right at the top because that would indicate that, in effect, I was practicing the Bigger Fool type approach to investing, and I don't think that can be practiced successfully over time.

我认为,最成功的投资者,如果他们会卖的话,卖掉的往往会是那些后来又涨得更高的东西,因为这说明他们买进去的是好企业。Charlie?

I think the most successful investors, if they sell at all, will be selling things that end up going a lot higher because it means that they've been buying into good businesses. Charlie?
M2
M21:53

嗯,我很高兴这位提问者带来了这么一点谦逊,因为不断被提醒自己犯过的错误,确实非常有用。

Well, I'm glad that the questioner brought this touch of humility because it is really useful to be reminded of your errors.

我是说,而且我觉得我们在这方面做得还挺不错的。

I mean, and I think we're pretty good at that.

我的意思是,我们会在心里反复拿自己的错误来提醒自己,这是一种非常好的思维习惯。

I mean, we kind of mentally rub our own noses in our own mistakes, and that is a very good mental habit.

Warren 能准确告诉你,他当年是每股几美分卖掉的,再拿那个价格跟现在的股价一比,这事确实会让他难受。

Warren can tell you the exact number of cents per share that he sold at and compare it with the current price, it actually hurts him.
M1
M12:26

其实也没那么难受。

It actually doesn't hurt.

事实是,我,你知道,因为这个嘛,你知道,你就是不断继续做事。

The truth is, I, you know, because it, you know, you just keep on doing things.

而且,呃,不过,回头去看、去给所有事情做事后复盘,确实是很有启发的,只要你别在这件事上走火入魔就行。

And it, it, uh, but, but it is instructive to look at, to do postmortems on, on everything, and as long as you don't get carried away with it.

比如每一次收购决策,诸如此类的事。

But every acquisition decision, that kind of thing.

你知道,都应该做事后复盘。

You know, there should be postmortems done.

大多数公司都不喜欢对自己的资本支出做事后复盘。

Most companies don't like to do postmortems on their capital expenditures.

这些年来,我当过很多公司的董事,而他们通常都不太愿意花很多时间去做这种事后复盘。

I, I've been a director of a lot of companies over the years, and, and they've usually not spent a lot of time on, on the postmortems.

他们会花很多时间跟你讲,这些收购会有多么多么棒,或者资本开支会有多好,但他们未必那么愿意认真去看结果到底怎么样。

They spend a lot of time on, on telling you how wonderful the acquisitions are going to be or the capital expenditures, but they don't like to look so hard necessarily at the results.
M2
M23:08

你想想看,要是董事会坐下来,说,好,现在我们花三个小时,把我们干过的那些愚蠢失误一条条拿出来检查一下,看看我们到底亏掉了多少,那样的董事会得多让人耳目一新。

Think of how refreshing the board of directors meeting would be if they sat down and, now we'll spend 3 hours examining all our stupid blunders and how much we've blown.
M1
M13:19

然后在那之后,薪酬委员会再开会。

And then after that, the compensation committee will meet.

不,这种事是不会发生的。

No, that is not going to happen.
M2
M23:25

对。

Right.
M1
M13:28

好,第五个领域,请。

Okay, area 5, please.