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2003年股东大会 · 芒格是如何让巴菲特放弃烟蒂股,从而转向投资优质企业的?

39 段 · 3 位说话人 · 原片 5:01
M1
M10:00

我的第一个问题是,Munger 先生,大家普遍认为,是你让 Warren 放弃了 Ben Graham 那套“烟蒂股”投资方法。

My first question is, Mr. Munger, you are largely credited with moving Warren away from the cigar butt approach to investing as it was practiced by Ben Graham.

有人说,正是收购 See's Candies 这件事,让你学到了一个很重要的教训:要去买好企业。

It's been stated that it was the purchase of See's Candies that taught you this important lesson of buying good businesses.

你是在什么时候意识到,买好企业这个理念,是更好的长期投资策略?还有,在你和 Warren 的讨论里,到底是什么让你说服了他,转向这条路?

At what point did you realize that this concept of buying good businesses was a better long-term investment strategy, and what was it in your discussions with Warren that allowed you to persuade him to move in that direction.

Buffett 先生,Munger 先生关于买好企业的哪些观点,说服了你放弃“烟蒂股”方法,转而接受他的方向?

Mr. Buffett, what was it in Mr. Munger's arguments for buying good businesses that persuaded you to abandon the cigar butt approach and move in his direction?
M2
M20:41

Charlie,你要不要先回答第一个问题,就是你是怎么——

Charlie, do you want to answer the first question about how you—
M3
M30:45

对,不过我觉得,把我说成是那个点化 Warren Buffett 的伟大启蒙者,这种说法多少有点神话色彩。

Yeah, well, I think there's some mythology in this idea that I've been this great enlightener of Warren Buffett.

Warren 其实并不怎么需要别人点化,不过我们俩一直都在不断学习,所以五年前的我们,确实没有后来那个阶段的我们那么明智。

Warren hasn't needed much enlightenment, but we both kept learning all the time so that the man we were 5 years earlier was less sensible than the man who ultimately was there.

而 See's Candies 的确给我们俩都上了很精彩的一课,如果我把完整的故事讲给你听,对你也会是个教训。

And See's Candies did teach us both a wonderful lesson, and it'll teach you a lesson if I tell you the full story.

如果当时 See's Candies 再多要十万美元,Warren 和我就会掉头走人。

If See's Candies had asked $100,000 more, Warren and I would have walked.

那就是我们当时有多蠢。

That's how dumb we were at that time.
M2
M21:32

多一万美元。

$10,000 more.
M3
M31:36

而我们后来没走掉的其中一个原因是,就在我们做出这个“精彩决定”,认定一分钱都不肯再多付的时候,Ira Marshall 对我们说:“你们俩疯了。”

And one of the reasons we didn't walk is while we were making this wonderful decision we weren't going to pay a dime more, Ira Marshall said to us, "You guys are crazy."

有些东西就是值得多付一点钱的——比如品质、企业质量,诸如此类。

There's some things you should pay up for—quality, business quality, so forth.

你们低估了质量。

You're underestimating quality.

而 Warren 和我呢,没有像很多地方的人那样反应,我们认真听了这个批评。

Well, Warren and I, instead of behaving the way they do in a lot of places, we listened to the criticism.

我们改主意了。

We changed our mind.

这对任何人来说,都是非常好的一课。

And that is a very good lesson for anyone.

能够建设性地接受批评,这是一种——嗯,你想想看,光是接受了那一次批评,我们后来就赚了多少钱。

The ability to take criticism constructively is a—well, think of all the money we made from accepting that one criticism.

如果再把我们从收购 See's 学到的东西所带来的那些间接影响也算上,你完全可以说,Berkshire 能有今天,部分就是靠从批评中学习建立起来的。

And if you count the indirect effects from what we learned from buying See's, you can say that Berkshire's been built partly by learning from criticism.

当然,我们今天不想再听更多批评了。

Now, we don't want any more today.
M2
M22:41

我们也喜欢 peanut brittle,所以——Charlie 这是顺势发挥了。

We also like the peanut brittle, so—Charlie is playing it out.

我学投资的时候,曾经从一个非常强调定量分析的人那里受益极大,这个人就是 Ben Graham。他也不是完全忽视定性因素,但他的意思是,只盯着定量因素,你就已经能赚到足够多的钱了,而且那还是一种更稳妥的做法,也能帮助你找出那些“烟蒂股”。

I had learned investment and got enormous benefit out of that learning from a fellow who concentrated on the quantitative aspects, Ben Graham, and who didn't dismiss the qualitative aspects, but he said you could make enough money focusing on quantitative aspects, which were a more sure way of going at things and would enable you to identify the cigar butts.

他会说,定性的东西更难教,更难写,也可能比定量更需要洞察力;再说了,定量方法本身就很好用,那干嘛还要让自己更费劲呢?

He would say that, you know, the qualitative is harder to teach, it's harder to write about, it may require more insight than the quantitative, and besides, the quantitative works fine, so why try harder?

而且在小规模操作的时候,这个说法确实很有道理。

And on a small scale, you know, there was a very good point to that.

但 Charlie 确实——不只是 Ira Marshall,Charlie 从一开始就比我更强调定性因素。

But Charlie really did—it wasn't just Ira Marshall, but Charlie emphasized the qualitative much more than I did when I started.

在某种程度上,他的背景和我不太一样。

He had a different background to some extent than I did.

他有——而我当时是深受一位了不起的老师影响,而且这种影响完全有充分理由。

He had—and I was enormously impressed by a terrific teacher, and for good reason.

但正如我们一直说的,用合理的价格买一家很棒的企业,比用很棒的价格买一家还过得去的企业,要更有道理。

But it makes more sense, as we've pointed out, to buy a wonderful business at a fair price than a fair business at a wonderful price.

这些年里,我们已经调整了我们的——至少我是调整了我自己的关注重点,而 Charlie 本来就是那样。

And we've changed our—or I've changed my focus anyway, and Charlie already had it.

这些年来,一直都是朝着那个方向走。

Over the years in that direction.

然后,当然,我们也从我们亲眼看到的东西里学到了经验。

And then, of course, we have learned by what we've seen.

我的意思是,我们——你知道,观察企业五十年之后,要从中学到一些东西、明白大钱会在哪里赚到,其实并不难。

I mean, we—it's not hard when you've watched businesses for 50 years, you know, to learn a few things about them as to where the big money can be made.

现在你问,这个转变是什么时候发生的?

Now, you say, when did it happen?

这点很有意思,因为就算你已经有了一个新的重要想法,旧的想法也还是会留在那里。

It's very interesting on that, because what happens even when you're getting a new important idea is that the old ideas are still there.

所以这个过程就是会在不同想法之间来回摇摆。

So there's this flickering in and out of things.

我的意思是,并没有一条特别鲜明、特别清楚的红线,把我们从烟蒂股一下子分隔到优秀公司那一边。

I mean, there was not, there was not a strong bright red line of demarcation where we went from cigar butts to wonderful companies.

不过——我们确实一直在往那个方向走,偶尔也会退回去一点,因为烟蒂股里面也确实能赚到钱。

And it—but we've moved in that direction, occasionally moved back because there is money made in cigar butts.

但总的来说,我们一直在朝着越来越好的公司这个方向前进。

But overall, we've kept moving in the direction of better and better companies.

到现在,我们手里已经有了一批很棒的公司。

And now we've got a collection of wonderful companies.