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42 段 · 2 位说话人 · 原片 4:13
F1
F10:00

不过,第一个问题是刚刚根据你刚才说的话、看了评论之后送进来的。

The first question, though, comes from one that just came in based on the comments that you were actually saying.

这个问题来自 William Lewis。

This is a question that comes from William Lewis.

他说,请问我有没有理解正确,Buffett 先生,您是说 Berkshire Hathaway 卖掉了在四家不同航空公司的持股吗?

He said, please, did I understand correctly, Mr. Buffett, to say that Berkshire Hathaway sold its interests in 4 different airlines?

如果是的话,您能说出是哪四家吗?

And if so, can you name them?

这些航空公司的名字可以透露吗?

Can the names of those airlines be identified?
M1
M10:18

对,我通常不会谈这个,不过我觉得这个需要解释一下。

Yeah, I wouldn't normally talk about it, but I think it requires an explanation.

而且我要说明的是,我们对这些公司的业务、本身的运营方式,还有管理层,完全不是失望。

And it requires an explanation that means we were not disappointed at all in the businesses, the way they were being run, and the management.

但是我们最后得出了一个不同的判断,涉及这四家大型——它们是美国最大的四家航空公司。

But we did come to a different opinion on it than the 4 large—they're the 4 largest U.S. airlines.

分别是 American Airlines、Delta Airlines、Southwest Airlines 和 United Continental。

It's American Airlines and Delta Airlines and Southwest Airlines and United Continental.

我想合起来看,它们大概至少占了美国客运收入里程的百分之八十。

And I think collectively they probably are at least 80% of the revenue passenger miles that is flown in the United States.

而且除了 Southwest 以外,它们在国际航线上也飞得很多。

And they have significant international flying too, excluding Southwest.

所以我们是喜欢这些航空公司的,但我们不喜欢的是——航空业所处的世界已经变了,我也不知道到底变成了什么样,我希望它能在相对不太久的时间里恢复正常。

So we like those airlines, but we don't like—the world has changed for the airlines, and I don't know how it's changed, and I hope it corrects itself in a reasonably prompt way.

我不知道,如果经济在一段较长时间里处于这种半停摆状态——假如真是这样的话——美国人的习惯会不会已经改变,或者将来会不会改变。

I don't know whether the Americans will have now changed their habits or will change their habits because of an extended period, if it happens, that we're semi-shut down in the economy.

我也不知道,像那种,怎么说呢,人们通过电话处理事情的这种趋势,会不会继续下去。

I don't know whether the trends toward, you know, what people have been doing by phone.

我的意思是,我已经七个星期没剪头发了。

I mean, it's been 7 weeks since I've had a haircut.

我已经七个多星期没打领带之类的了。

It's been 7 weeks since I—more than 7 weeks since I put on a tie or anything.

每天就只是想一想今天穿哪套运动服。

It's been just a question of which sweatsuit I wear.

所以谁知道呢?

So who knows?

谁知道我们最后会怎么走出来呢?

Who knows how we come out of this?

但我觉得有些行业——很不幸,我觉得航空业就是其中之一——确实受到了重创,实际上是被一些远远超出它们控制范围的事件硬生生关停了。

But I think that there's certain industries, and unfortunately, I think that the airline industry, among others, that are really hurt by a forced—in fact, shut down by events that are far beyond their control.

Greg,你想补充点什么吗?

Greg, would you like to add anything to that?

其实没什么可补充的,Warren。

Really nothing to add, Warren.

好吧,那我们这儿又来了一个 Charlie。

Okay, well, we got another Charlie here.

我本来不是故意把这话说成一个包袱的,不过你已经讲得很到位了。

I didn't intend to use that as a line, but you've covered it well.

对了,顺便说一句,如果有别的航空公司,我们也会买,但那四家是最大的四家,也是我们能投进去一些钱的公司。我们往里面投了大概七十亿到八十亿美元吧,但最后拿出来的可远没有七十亿到八十亿美元。

Yeah, we would have bought other airlines too, incidentally, but those were the 4 big ones, and those are the ones we could put some money into, and we put whatever it was, $7 or $8 billion into it, and we did not take out anything like $7 or $8 billion.

那是我的错误。

And that was my mistake.

但问题总是这样,有些概率比较低的事情,有时候还是会发生。

But it's always a problem if there are things on the lower levels of probabilities that happen sometimes.

这次就发生在航空业上了,而做这个决定的人是我。

And it happened to the airlines, and I'm the one who made the decision.
F1
F13:10

不过 Warren,我想替他澄清一下,他的问题是,你是不是把这四家的全部持股都卖掉了?

But Warren, just to clarify on his question, he asked, did you sell your whole stake in all 4 of those?

答案是,是的。

The answer is yes.
M1
M13:16

对。

Yeah.

当我们卖掉某个东西的时候,当我们卖掉某个东西的时候,很多情况下都会是把我们整个持仓全卖掉。

When we, when we sell something, when we sell something, very often it's going to be our entire stake.

我是说,我们不会减一点仓之类的。

I mean, we don't trim positions or anything like that.

这根本不是我们的做法,就像如果我们买下一家公司百分之百的股权,我们也不会再把它减到百分之九十或者百分之八十。

That's just not the way we approach it any more than if we buy 100% of a business, we're going to sell it down to 90% or 80%.

我的意思是,如果我们喜欢一家企业,我们就会尽可能多买,而且尽可能久地持有。

I mean, if we, we like a business, we're going to buy as much of it as we can and keep it as long as we can.

但当我们改变看法的时候——好,下一个问题。

But when we change our mind— all right, the next question.

抱歉。

I'm sorry.

不,你继续。

No, go ahead.

当你们改变看法的时候呢?

When you change your mind?

嗯,当我们改变看法的时候,我们不会,我们不会,呃,搞什么折中的做法,或者类似那种事。

Well, when we change our mind, we don't, we don't, uh, take half measures or anything of the sort.

所以老实说,我很惊讶——当然,我们说过,我们卖出它们的价格比我们的买入价低得多。但让我惊讶的是那个成交量。

So I was amazed at how, frankly— now, we said we were selling them at far lower prices than we paid. But I was amazed at the, the volume.

Airlines 的交易量相对来说一向都很大,但是,但是我们已经把整个持仓全都卖掉了。

Airlines always trade in, in large volume relatively, but, but we, we have sold the entire positions.