2005年股东大会 · 如何在2分钟内决定投资一家公司？很简单，读25年它的财报 — 文稿

M10:01

早上好，Warren，Charlie。

Good morning, Warren and Charlie.

我叫 Walter Chang，来自 Texas 的 Houston。

My name is Walter Chang, and I'm from Houston, Texas.

你们能不能讲讲，你们当初是怎么做出投资 Anheuser-Busch 这个决定的？你们又是怎么估算它内在价值的？

Can you describe how you made your investment decision to invest in Anheuser-Busch and how you estimated its intrinsic value?

你们做这个决定花了多久？

How long did it take you to make this decision?

还有，Budweiser 是不是像 Coca-Cola 一样不可战胜？

And is Budweiser as invincible as Coca-Cola?

M20:25

我现在还在喝 Coca-Cola。

I'm still drinking Coca-Cola.

要是我们现在这儿喝的是 Bud，今天这个会可能就会变得有点刺激了。

The meeting might get a little exciting if we were drinking Bud here.

我们一般不会太详细去讲我们可能在买什么、卖什么，不过这个决定本身大概两秒钟就能做出来。

We don't get into much in the way of description of things we might be buying or selling, but the decision takes about 2 seconds.

不过我大概是在——我没去查——但我想大概是二十五年前，买了 Anheuser-Busch 一百股，那时候我也买了很多别的公司的各一百股。

But I bought 100 shares of Anheuser-Busch about— I haven't looked it up, but I would say maybe 25 years ago when I bought 100 shares of a whole lot of other things.

我这么做，是为了能及时、直接收到它们的报告。

And I do that so I can get the reports promptly and directly.

你也可以通过你的 brokerage firm 拿到这些报告，但我发现把股票登记在自己名下会稍微更可靠一点。

You can get them through your brokerage firm, but I've found that it's a little more reliable to put the stock in a direct name.

所以至少二十五年来，我一直在读他们的报告，也一直在观察消费者习惯的大致变化。

So I've been reading the reports for at least 25 years, and I observe just generally consumer habits.

而目前这个阶段，啤酒行业的销售非常平。

And at a point currently, the beer industry sales are very flat.

在这个大类消费里，wine 和 spirits 是以挤占啤酒份额的方式增长起来的。

Wine and spirits have gained in that general category at the expense of beer.

所以如果你看行业数据，它基本上没什么增长。

So if you look at the industry figures, they're not going anywhere.

Miller 在某种程度上重新恢复了活力。

Miller has been rejuvenated to some degree.

所以 Anheuser-Busch 这家公司，多年来盈利增长一直相当可观，市场份额也在增长，呃，但现在正像他们自己描述的那样——他们前两天刚开过一个 conference call——呃，现在正经历盈利非常平的阶段，为了维持份额不得不花更多钱，呃，有些情况下还要做促销性定价。

So Anheuser-Busch, which has had a string of earnings gains that have been quite substantial over the years and market share gains, uh, is experiencing, as they've described— and they just had a conference call the other day— uh, experiencing very flat earnings, having to spend more money to maintain share, uh, in some cases, uh, having promotional pricing.

所以他们现在正处在一个阶段，呃，肯定不像几年前那样过得那么舒服。

So they are going through a period that, uh, certainly less fun for them than was the case a few years ago.

而且这是一种相当容易理解的产品，消费者行为也相当容易理解。

And it's a fairly easy-to-understand product, and consumer behavior is fairly easy to understand.

这是一个非常、非常特别强的生意。

It's a very, very exceptionally strong business.

事实上，过去五十年啤酒行业发生的事情，对我和 Charlie 来说一直很有意思，因为我们就是在一个酿酒城市长大的，而且 Charlie 跟 Storz 家族的一些成员还很熟。

In fact, what's happened in the beer industry over the last 50 years has been fascinating to me and to Charlie because this is a brewing town that we grew up in, and Charlie knew the members of the Storz family, a number of them, well.

二战之后，Storz 在 Omaha 的啤酒市场占有率超过百分之五十，但随着全国性品牌接管市场，它基本上就消失了。

Storz had over 50% of the Omaha market in beer post-World War II and basically disappeared as the national brands took over.

所以这是个很有意思的现象。

So it's an interesting phenomenon.

啤酒生意在美国不会有明显增长。

Beer business is not going to grow significantly in the US.

但从全球来看，啤酒在很多很多地方都很受欢迎，而 Anheuser-Busch 会在这里面占据非常强的位置。

Worldwide, beer is popular a great many places, and Anheuser-Busch will have a very strong position in it.

不过我不会指望它的盈利在一段时间内有太大表现，但这对我们来说没关系。

But I would not expect the earnings to do much for some time, but that's fine with us.

Charlie？

Charlie?

M33:29

对，以我们现在的操作规模来说，如果我们要买进一家市场口碑特别好的公司，几乎总得先等它出一点让人不太愉快的小状况。

Yeah, at our scale of operation now, if we're ever going to buy into a terribly well-regarded company, we almost need a little patch of unpleasantness.

M23:41

对，顺便说一句，那也一直是买 Berkshire 的最佳时机。

Yeah, that's been the best time to buy Berkshire, incidentally, too.

我的意思是，我们寻找的是那些拥有持久竞争优势的企业。

I mean, what we're looking for is businesses with a durable competitive advantage.

我觉得毫无疑问，Anheuser 在消费者心智里的地位非常非常强。

I don't think there's any question that Anheuser has a very, very strong consumer position.

现在，就像我刚才说的，Miller 在一定程度上算是恢复了些元气；不过这件事还有一点，当然，就是在啤酒这个品类里，你不会像在很多其他消费品里那样，看到大量的 private label 或 generic products。那些消费品过去这些年本来地位也很强，但一直在受到冲击。

Now, as I said, Miller has been rejuvenated to some degree, but the other thing about it is, of course, in beer you do not see the prevalence of private labels or generic products that you see in a great many consumer products that have had strong positions over the years that are being attacked.

这算是一个小小的加分项。

That's a small plus.

但是，人均啤酒消费量基本上不会往上走了，而且也没什么东西能改变这一点。

But beer consumption per capita is going no place, and there's nothing that will change that.

挺有意思的是，这个国家的人平均每天大概会喝六十四盎司液体，我想其中大约百分之二十七是 carbonated soft drinks。

Interestingly enough, the average person in this country drinks about 64 ounces of liquid a day, and I think it's roughly 27% of that will be carbonated soft drinks.

所以差不多——当然了，这里面 Coca-Cola 大概会占到——Coca-Cola 的产品会占四十几个百分点。

So almost— and of course, that Coca-Cola will be about— Coca-Cola products will be 40-odd percent.

所以，美国人每天喝的这六十四盎司液体里，你可以算一算，大概有十一盎司——不分男女老少——会是 Coca-Cola 的产品。

So of the 64 ounces of liquid that Americans are drinking every day, you can figure something like 11 ounces of that— man, woman, and child— will be a Coca-Cola product.

啤酒的话，如果我没记错——当然我也可能记错——但我想啤酒大概占所有液体摄入的百分之十。

Beer, as I remember— I could be wrong on this— but I think beer is about 10% of all liquids.

所以，美国人喝下去的各种液体里，我相信每十盎司里就有一盎司是啤酒。

So 1 out of every 10 ounces that's consumed by Americans of any kind of liquid is, I believe, beer.

顺便说一句，Coffee 呢，尽管你会看到很多相关报道，说什么 Starbucks 很受欢迎——这个当然是真的——但过去三四十年里，Coffee 的消费其实是一降再降，一降再降。

Coffee, incidentally, despite what you read about, you know, the popularity of Starbucks, which is very real, of course, but coffee has just gone down and down and down over the last 30 or 40 years.

Charlie，你对自己的消费习惯有没有什么想法，愿意跟大家说说？

Charlie, do you have any thoughts about your consumption habits that you can talk about?

M35:47

嗯，在场有些人可能还记得 Matz beer，那时候我们这个国家有更多的 breweries。

Well, there are people here that may remember Matz beer, and in this country we had more breweries.

有几百家，而且一些小地方都会有两三个品牌。

There were hundreds, and small places would have 2 or 3 brands.

而现在这种不断集中、最后变成少数几家巨头的趋势，我觉得是长期性的。

And this trend toward concentration into a few giants is, I think, permanent.

M26:07

对，我记得二战之后有一段时间，Schlitz 是第一名。

Yeah, Schlitz was number one, as I remember, after World War II for a while.

我想那时候 Anheuser 排第四。

I think Anheuser was number 4 at that time.

如果你是啤酒爱好者，有一本挺有意思的书，几个月前出的，也可能比那更早一点，是一位 Wall Street Journal 的记者写的，他算是在全国各地边走边尝啤酒。

There's an interesting book, if you're a beer enthusiast, came out a few months ago, maybe a little longer than that, by a Wall Street Journal reporter that sort of toured the country sampling beers.

我不知道这对他的写作造成了什么影响，不过如果你喜欢读啤酒历史，这本书相当不错。

I don't know how it affected his writing, but it's a pretty good book if you like reading about the history of beer.

我们来看第三个问题。

Let's go to number 3.