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2013年股东大会 · 从股市上买公司最让人着迷的地方

37 段 · 3 位说话人 · 原片 4:25
M1
M10:00

来自 Louisiana 州 Shreveport 的 Ben Sauer。

Ben Sauer from Shreveport, Louisiana.

像 Heinz 这样的收购案,在判断什么才算合理价格的时候,你们考虑的因素能不能讲得更具体一点?

Could you be more specific about what factors you considered when determining what a fair price was for acquisitions such as Heinz?

还有,你们会用哪些信息来源,来判断那些会影响整个行业的重大变化?

And also, what sources do you use to make judgments about major changes that will affect an industry?
M2
M20:27

对,这个嘛,我们通常,嗯,我们通常都会觉得自己付贵了。

Yeah, well, we usually, um, we usually feel we're paying too much.

对吧,Charlie?

Isn't that right, Charlie?

不过,我们会觉得这个业务特别有吸引力,管理层或者合作伙伴也特别有吸引力,所以哪怕价格让人有点难以下咽,我们最后还是会接受。

It, uh, but we find the business so compelling and the management or associates so compelling that we gag and we get there on the price.

但是我们——并没有什么完美的数学公式。

But we—there is no perfect mathematical formula.

回头看,当年我们买下那些很棒的企业,而它们后来也继续证明自己确实很棒,其实我们当时就算多付相当多的钱,照样也会是很好的商业决策。

Looking back, when we bought wonderful businesses that turned out to continue to be wonderful, we could have paid significantly more money and they still would have been great business decisions.

但你永远不可能百分之百确定。

But you never know 100% for sure.

所以这件事——并没有你想的那么精确。

And so it isn't—it isn't as precise as you might think.

一般来说,如果你有机会买进一家很棒的企业——我说的“很棒”,是指它的经济特性会让你高度确信,它长期下来能赚到不寻常的资本回报,异常高的那种;而更理想的是,它还有机会把更多资本继续投入进去,而且同样能拿到很高的回报率。

Generally speaking, if you get a chance to buy a wonderful business, and by that I mean one that has economic characteristics that lead you to believe with a high degree of certainty that they will be earning unusual returns on capital over time, unusually high, and better yet, if they get the chance to employ more capital at, again, at high rates of return.

那就是所有企业里最好的那一类。

That's the best of all businesses.

这种时候,你大概应该稍微多伸一点手。

And you probably should stretch a little.

Charlie 和我有过好几次这样的对话:我们在看一家自己喜欢的企业,但又对那个价格有点下不了嘴,这时候 Charlie 或者我就会说,你知道,做吧,尽管为了最后那百分之五去付钱,确实让人很难受。

Charlie and I have had several conversations where we were looking at a business which we liked, and we're sort of gagging at the price, and Charlie or I will say, you know, let's do it even though it kind of kills us to pay that last 5%.

我们买 See's Candies 的时候就是这样。

We did that with See's Candies.

当时是 Charlie 说,看在老天的份上,Warren,开支票吧。

Charlie was the one that said, for God's sakes, Warren, write the check.

那时候难受的是我,不过这种事确实发生过。

I was the one that was suffering, but it's happened.

这种情况发生过很多次了,是吧,Charlie?

It's happened quite a few times, hasn't it, Charlie?
M3
M32:28

几乎每次都是这样。

It almost always happens.

现在的价格可一点都不便宜。

Modern prices are not cheap.
M2
M22:35

对,对。

No, no.

而且真正伟大的企业,你知道,本来就没那么多,你也不会总有机会买到。

And great businesses, you know, you're not going to find lots of them, and you're not going to get the opportunity to buy them.

不过在市场上,股市有时候会给你一些按收益百分比来看非常划算的机会,这种机会是你在谈判式收购整家公司时永远见不到的。

And although you do in the market, the stock market will offer you opportunities for profit percentage-wise that you'll never see in terms of negotiated purchase of business.

因为在谈判购买一家企业的时候,你几乎总是在和一个可以选择卖或者不卖的人打交道,而且他还可以自己挑选什么时候卖,诸如此类。

In negotiated purchase of a business, you're almost always dealing with someone that has the option of either selling or not selling and can sort of pick the time when they decide to sell and all that sort of thing.

而股票市场是个拍卖市场。

In stock markets, it's an auction market.

什么疯狂的事都可能发生。

Crazy things can happen.

你可能会碰上一些技术上的小故障,造成 flash crash 之类的情况,实际上这个世界根本一点都没变,但各种卖出机制被触发了,诸如此类。

You can have, you know, some technological blip that will cause a flash crash or something, and the world really hasn't changed at all, but all kinds of selling mechanisms are tripped off and that sort of thing.

所以你会在股市里看到一些机会,而这些机会在企业并购市场里你基本上是碰不到的。

So you will see opportunities in the stock market that you'll never really get in the business market.

但我们真正喜欢的,还是买下企业,然后长期持有、一直留着。

But what we really like, we really like buying businesses to hold and keep.

我们也喜欢买便宜的 marketable securities,不过特别是当你有大量现金不断流入,而且未来还会持续有大量现金流入的时候,你真正想做的,是把这些钱配置到那些你可以永远持有的伟大企业里。

We like buying cheap marketable securities too, but particularly when you've got lots of cash coming in and you're going to continue to have lots of cash coming in, you really want to deploy it in great businesses that you can own forever.

Charlie?

Charlie?
M1
M13:57

不,这——

No, it—.
M3
M34:01

我们现在算是处在一种不同的模式里了,这里面有个很重要的教训:如果我们一直停留在早先那种模式里,如果我们从来没学会、没成长,那我们后来就不会做得这么好。

We're sort of in a different mode now, and that has a great lesson in that if we'd kept our earlier modes, if we'd never learned, we wouldn't have done very well.

人生这场游戏,就是一场永无止境的学习。

The game of life is a game of everlasting learning.

至少如果你想赢的话,就是这样。

At least it is if you want to win.
M2
M24:23

我们想赢。

We want to win.

Carol?

Carol?