M20:40
三年之后会怎么样，我不知道。
I don't know about 3 years' time.
不过，你提到的那些领域，程度上虽然不一样，但确实都受到了非常沉重的打击。
Certainly, those areas you named, to varying degrees, have been hit very hard.
其中有些制造业业务，是和住宅建设联系在一起的。
Some of the manufacturing would tie in with residential construction.
如果我们把每年的新屋开工数按五十万套来算，呃，你知道，我猜最多再过几年，住房市场就会接近平衡。
If we hold housing starts at 500,000 a year, uh, you know, my guess is that in a couple of years at most, we would get something close to equilibrium in housing.
也许，也许还会快得多。
Maybe, maybe quite a bit sooner.
我，我——没有人能非常精确地知道这些数字。
I, I— nobody knows the figures with precision.
但如果每年还在形成一百三十万个左右的新家庭，而你一年只新增五十万个住房单元，再加上一些老房子会被烧毁，还有其他一些损耗——那你终归会达到一个供需平衡的点，而且那个时间不会离现在远得离谱。
But if you keep forming households, at 1.3 million or something like that a year, and you create 500,000 new units, and a few of the old ones burn down, and a few things— you will, you will reach equilibrium at a point that's not ridiculously far in the future.
那会对我们的地毯业务、砖业、保温材料业务、油漆业务等等，带来很大的影响。
And that will make a big difference in our carpet business and brick business and insulation business and paint business and so on.
零售业受打击非常严重。
Retailing has been hit very hard.
一般来说，定位越高端，受到的冲击往往越大。
The higher the end of it, generally speaking, the harder it's been hit.
消费者行为已经发生了很大的变化，我觉得这种变化还会持续相当长一段时间。
There's been a big change in consumer behavior, and I think it will last quite a bit longer.
我觉得这些年来，政府一直在告诉人们要储蓄，现在人们真的开始储蓄了，他们反倒又不高兴了。
I think for years government was telling people to save, and now that they're saving, they're unhappy about it.
但我觉得——我觉得过去这两年的经历，不会那么快就被忘掉。
But I think that— I think the experience of the last couple years I don't think will go away very fast.
我觉得这种影响可能会持续很长时间。
I think it could last quite a long time.
所以我不会认为我们的零售业务在相当长一段时间里会有特别出色的表现。
So I would not think our retailing businesses would do great for a considerable period of time.
还有，零售房地产这个领域，我觉得未来相当长一段时间都会很艰难。
And I would say that in retail real estate, I would think that that would be a tough field to be in for quite a period.
我觉得购物中心会面临一些很难填满的空置铺位。
I think, I think the shopping centers will be seeing vacancies that will be hard to fill.
我觉得里面的零售商在很多情况下都会苦苦挣扎。
I think that their retailers will be struggling in many cases.
当然，房地产的供给也不会凭空消失。
And of course, the supply of real estate doesn't go away.
所以，呃，购物中心这个行业，之前交易时的那些所谓顶级 cap rate 是百分之五，有时候甚至更低。
So it, uh, that could be the shopping center business, which was selling at, you know, these premier cap rates of 5%, even less sometimes.
我觉得等这一切都结束之前，这种定价看起来会非常可笑。
I think that is going to look very silly, uh, before all of this is done.
事实上，现在看起来就已经是这样了。
In fact, it already is looking that way.
呃，所以我不会指望——我不会——服务类业务总体上算是更好的业务。
Uh, so I wouldn't count— I wouldn't— the service businesses are generally the better businesses.
它们需要的资本更少，而且，而且，呃，一般来说，它们在自己服务的市场里可以做得更专业、更细分。
They require less capital, and, and, uh, they can be more specialized in what they, uh, in the markets they serve in general.
但我不会期待零售、制造和服务类业务会出现什么快速反弹。
But I would not look for any quick rebound in the retail, manufacturing, and service businesses.
这方面我们还有很长的路要走，那些和建筑相关的业务也是一样；不过至少在那边，你大致还能从数字上看出它什么时候会恢复，而且你也能从房地产市场里获得很多关于现状的信息。
That we've got a ways to go on that, and we've got a ways to go on the ones that are construction related, but at least there you can sort of see the math of when it'll work out, and you can get a lot of information on what's going on in real estate markets.
我觉得 South Florida 会——比如说，我觉得那地方会在很长很长一段时间里都是个问题。
South Florida, I think, will be— for example, I think that's going to be a problem for a long, long time.
我希望不是这样，但我就是觉得，从那边的房屋套数，还有家庭净形成数量来看，这个账一算，冲击真的是挺毁灭性的。
I hope it isn't, but I just think the math of it is pretty devastating in terms of the number of units you have and net household formation down there.
你们得慢慢消化的东西还有很多。
You've got a lot to wade through.
Charlie？
Charlie?
我没有什么要补充的。
I've got nothing to add.
好。
Okay.