M10:00
刚才第一个问题是什么来着——是问像我这样的年轻人，该怎么界定并培养自己的能力圈。
What was the first question again that— It was how a youngster like myself would define and develop a circle of competence.
哦，对，这是个好问题。
Oh yeah, that's a good question.
我会这么说：如果你怀疑某件事是不是在你的能力圈里，那它就不是。
And I'm, you know, I would say this: if you have doubts about something being in your circle of competence, it isn't.
我的意思是，换句话说，你去看一长串企业名单，我敢打赌你能——我是说，你能看懂一个 Coke 装瓶商，你能看懂 Coca-Cola Company，你也能看懂 McDonald's。
You know, I mean, in other words, I would look down the lists of businesses, and I will bet you that you can— I mean, you can understand a Coke bottler, you can understand the Coca-Cola Company, you can understand McDonald's.
你也能理解，你知道，大体上你能理解 General Motors。
You can understand, you know, you can understand in a general way General Motors.
你可能没法给它估值，但这样的生意有很多很多。
You may not be able to value it, but there are all kinds of businesses.
你当然也能看懂 Walmart。
You can certainly understand Walmart.
这不代表你就能判断它的价格——或者说它应该值多少钱——但你是看得懂 Walmart 的。
That doesn't mean whether you decide whether the price— what the price should be, but you understand Walmart.
你也能看懂 Costco。
You can understand Costco.
如果碰到一个你的朋友在买、或者大家都在说能赚很多钱的东西，而你自己也去买了，但你又不确定自己到底懂不懂，那你就是不懂。
And if you get to something that your friend is buying or that everybody says a lot of money's gonna be made in, and you did, and you don't— you're not sure whether you understand it or not, you don't.
我的意思是，待在能力圈里面很深的位置，会比沿着边界踮着脚走要好得多。
You know, I mean, and it's better to be well within the circle than to be trying to tiptoe along the line.
而且你会发现，能力圈里面能做的事情其实很多。
And you'll find plenty of things within the circle.
我的意思是，能力圈小一点，也没什么可怕的。
I mean, it's, it's not terrible to have a small circle of competence.
我会说，我的能力圈就挺小的，但已经足够用了。
I'd say my circle of competence is pretty small, but it's big enough.
你知道，我总还是能找到少数几个机会。
You know, I, I can find a few things.
还有，当有人打电话来跟我说，呃，Larson Juhl 这种公司时，那就在我的能力圈之内。
And, and when somebody calls me with, with, uh, a Larson Juhl, that is within my circle of competence.
虽然我之前甚至都没想过它。
I hadn't even thought about it before.
但我知道什么东西是在我的能力圈里的。
But I know what's within it.
我是说，这样的企业我能评估。
I mean, I can evaluate a business like that.
但如果有人打电话给我——前几天就有人给我打电话，说的是一家非常大的 finance company。
And if I get called— I got called the other day on a very large finance company.
我明白他们是做什么的，但我不明白它内部发生的所有事情，我也不明白如果不依赖 Berkshire 的信用等等，我是否能持续给它提供资金。
I understand what they do, but I don't understand everything that's going on within it, and I don't understand whether I can continually fund it, you know, on a basis independent from using Berkshire's credit and so on.
所以，尽管他们做的每一笔单独交易我都能看懂，但我并不认为整个企业，或者说它整体的运营，就一定在我的能力圈之内。
So even though I could understand every individual transaction they did, I don't regard the whole enterprise or the operation of it necessarily as being within my circle of competence.
Charlie？
Charlie?