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2016年股东大会 · 不要羡慕“富贵险中求”的人

62 段 · 2 位说话人 · 原片 5:28
M1
M10:00

嗨,Warren,Charlie。

Hi, Warren and Charlie.

很高兴见到你们。

Great to see you.

我们是来自 Los Angeles 的 Talgarth Investments 的 Cora 和 Dan Chen。

This is Cora and Dan Chen from Talgarth Investments of Los Angeles.

这次年度股东大会让我想起了 Harry Potter 里 Hogwarts 的魔法世界。

This annual meeting reminds me of the magical world of Hogwarts, of Harry Potter.

这个会场就是我们的 Hogwarts。

This arena is our Hogwarts.

Warren,你是我们的校长,也是 Professor Dumbledore。

Warren, you are our headmaster and Professor Dumbledore.
M2
M20:27

我没读过 Harry Potter,不过我就当这是在夸我吧。

I haven't read Harry Potter, but I'll take it as a compliment.
M1
M10:34

Charlie 则是我们的 Snape 校长,直接坦率,而且非常有原则。

Charlie's our Headmaster Snape, direct and full of integrity.

长期集中价值投资的魔法是真实存在的,但又像 Harry Potter 一样,世界上其他大多数人并不相信我们真的存在。

The magic of long-term concentrated value investing is real, yet similar to Harry Potter, the rest of the world doesn't believe we exist.

你写给我的信改变了我的人生,而你的 Secret Millionaires Club 改变了我孩子们的人生。

Your letter to me has changed my life, and your Secret Millionaires Club has changed my children's life.

他们上课的时候都会聊投资。

They go to class chatting about investing.

我这个问题是想问给今天在家里看直播的我的孩子们,还有现场的孩子们。

My question is for my children watching at home today and the children in the audience.

当他们每天在媒体上看到一些一辈子一分钱都没赚过的公司去 IPO 的时候,他们该怎么看股票?

How should they look at stocks when every day in the media they see companies that never made a dime in their life go IPO?

这些公司会稀释股权,而且他们看到的还有很多非常短期的包装和炒作。

They're dilutive, and they see a lot of very short-term spin.

这个周期变得越来越短了。

The cycle is getting shorter and shorter.

他们应该怎么看待股票?你想对他们说些什么?

How should they view stocks, and what's your message for them?

最后,Cora 和我今天特别想当面感谢你,也亲自跟你握个手。

Finally, Cora and I would love to thank you in person and shake your hand personally today.

我再说一遍,今天想亲自跟你握个手。

I'll repeat and shake your hand personally today.

我再重复一遍我去年说过的话。

I'll repeat what I said last year.

谢谢你为我们这一代人种下了种子,让我们能够行走、能够坐在树荫下,也让我孩子这一代人能通过 Secret Millionaires Club 坐在这片树荫下。

Thank you for setting the seeds for my generation to walk, to sit under the shade, and for my children's generation to sit under the shade with the Secret Millionaires Club.

我真的是行走在巨人之间。

I truly walk amongst giants.

谢谢。

Thank you.
M2
M22:07

你介意把刚才整段再重复一遍吗?

Would you mind repeating the whole thing?

说到 Secret Millionaires Club,我们得把很大的功劳归给 Andy Heyward。

The Secret Millionaires Club, we want to give great credit to Andy Heyward on that.

我觉得它确实起到了帮助。

I think it has helped.

我知道它已经帮助了成千上万的孩子。

I know it's helped thousands and thousands of children.

而且 Andy,这是 Andy 的主意,它的影响力也越来越强。

And Andy, it was Andy's idea, and it grows in strength.

让年幼的孩子学到怎么管钱、怎么建立友谊,还有——还有学会付出,这些很好的道理。

And having young children learn good lessons in terms of handling money and making friendships and— and learning to give.

总的来说,就是学着成为更好的公民,这是个很棒的目标,而 Andy 让他们很容易做到这一点。

Just generally behaving as better citizens is a— it's a great objective, and Andy makes it easy for them to do.

所以,呃,我代表他,呃,我接受你刚才的那些,呃,评价。

So I, on his behalf, uh, I, I accept your, your, uh, comments.

嗯,你其实不用太担心,你知道,IPO 里发生了什么,或者别人赚了多少钱。

Uh, you don't have to really worry about, you know, what's going on in IPOs or people making money.

每天都有人中彩票,但这也没什么可大惊小怪的,嗯,这对你有什么影响吗?

People win lotteries every day, but there's no reason, uh, did it have that effect at all?

你不应该因此眼红。

You shouldn't be jealous about it.

我的意思是,你知道,如果他们想去做那些从数学上都站不住脚的事,偶尔有一个人运气好,然后他们就把那一个人弄上电视,而那一百万个为这笔奖金出力的人——而且还被州政府切走一大块——你知道,别掺和进去。

I mean, you know, if they want to do mathematically unsound things and one of them occasionally gets lucky and they put the one person on television and the million that contributed to the winnings with the big slice taken out for the state, you know, don't get on there.

这根本不值得担心。

It's nothing to worry about.

你要做的其实就是想清楚什么才是合理的,嗯,然后你——你在考虑买入的时候——当你买一只股票时,你要让自己在心理上进入这样一种状态:你是在买一家企业。

Just all you have to do is figure out what makes sense, uh, and you don't— and you look at buying— when you buy a stock, you get yourself in the mental frame of mind that you're buying a business.

如果你五年都不去看它的报价,那也完全没问题。

And if you don't look at a quote on it for 5 years, that's fine.

你持有一个农场,也不会每天、每周或者每个月都有人给你报个价。

You don't get a quote on your farm every day or every week or every month.

如果你有一栋公寓楼,也是一样,不会有人天天给你报价。

You don't get it on your apartment house if you own one.

如果你拥有一家 McDonald's franchise,你也不会每天都拿到一个报价。

If you own a McDonald's franchise, you don't get a quote every day.

你要把你持有的股票当成一家家企业来看,去想它们作为企业的经营表现。

You want to look at your stocks as businesses and think about their performance as businesses.

你要像买一家企业那样去想你为它们付了多少钱,至于世界上其他人在干什么,就随他们去吧。

Think about what you pay for them as you would think about buying a business, and let the rest of the world go its own way.

你没必要仅仅因为某个愚蠢的游戏摆在那里,就跟着跳进去。

You don't want to get into a stupid game just because it's available.

这个我会在休息前再多说一点,不过现在,我把话交给 Charlie。

And I'm going to say a little bit more about that close to the break, but with that, I'll turn it over to Charlie.

对,我觉得你的孩子们想找值得信任的人,这是对的。

Yeah, well, I think that your children are right to look for people they can trust.

在处理股票和债券这件事上。

In dealing with stocks and bonds.

不幸的是,超过一半的时候,他们都得不到一个常规意义上的靠谱答案。

Unfortunately, more than half the time they will fail in a conventional answer.

所以他们确实得——他们面对的是个很难的问题。

So they really have to— they have a hard problem.

如果你只是听长辈的话,他们会骗你,还会传播很多荒唐的东西。

If you just listen to your elders, they'll lie to you and spread a lot of folly.

不过他们其实面对的又是个很容易的问题。

But they really have an easy problem.
M1
M14:51

什么?

What?
M2
M24:51

就是说,从整体上看,American business 随着时间推移会发展得很好。

In the, in the sense that American business as a whole is going to do fine over time.

所以他们唯一可能——我可不是股票经纪人的那种普通客户。

So the only way that they can— I'm not the average client of a stockbroker.

这个我们后面再讲。

Well, we'll get to that later.

股票经纪人会过得很好。

The stockbroker will do fine.

这个,嗯,对,这倒是真的。

The, uh, yes, that's true.

对,但他们其实没必要那样做,我们可以再聊。

Yeah, but they don't have to do that, and we can talk.

这个我还是想稍微晚一点再回应,不过,嗯,总之,你不用担心。

Well, I'd rather address that just a little later, but, uh, just, you don't want to worry.

你也别变得——像 Charlie 会说的,很多问题都是由嫉妒引起的。

You don't want to be— a lot of problems, as Charlie would say, are caused by envy.

你不要去嫉妒那些中彩票的人,或者买了一个上涨的 IPO 的人。

You don't want to get envious of somebody who's won the lottery or, or bought an IPO that went up.

你得想清楚什么才是真正讲得通的,然后按你自己的路走。

You have to figure out what makes sense and follow your own course.
M1
M15:28

Becky?

Becky?