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2009年股东大会 · 巴菲特谈为何在金融危机后投资高盛与通用电气

38 段 · 2 位说话人 · 原片 4:28
M1
M10:00

好,这个问题来自 John McDonald。他问,Warren,在你投资 General Electric 和 Goldman Sachs 的时候,你觉得你选中的是有吸引力的企业,还是只是有吸引力的证券?

Okay, this question comes from John McDonald, and he asks, Warren, in your General Electric and Goldman Sachs investments, do you think you've picked attractive businesses or simply attractive securities?

Ben Graham 的《Security Analysis》里提到,管理层最让人害怕的一件事,就是操纵 earnings;而有人会说,这两家公司都在这么做。

Ben Graham's Security Analysis suggests that the most frightening things an executive management can do is manage earnings, which it could be argued both of these firms do.

你对此有什么反应?

What is your reaction to that?
M2
M20:26

嗯,我可以这么说,我,我也可以 argue,说过去十五年里,美国工业里相当大的一部分公司,都在某个时候管理过 earnings。我亲眼见过,也反对过,但没起到什么作用。

Well, I could say that I, I could argue that a very substantial, uh, percentage of American industry over the last 15 years at one time or another has managed earnings, and I've witnessed it and argued against it and gotten no place.

所以我,我不觉得这是什么只局限在少数公司身上的毛病。

So I, I don't regard that as a malady that's limited in its, uh, experience.

我,我不了解更多内情。

I, I don't know anything.

我,我不想谈这些公司的具体细节。

I, I would not get into the specifics of those companies.

我对这些公司本身感觉不错。

I felt good about those companies.

就它们业务的质量,还有管理层的质量来说,都是不错的。

In terms of the quality of the businesses they had and the quality of the management.

但主要促使我们做这些交易的,还是交易条款。

But it was the terms primarily that caused us to make those deals.

我的意思是,那些交易发生在市场一片混乱的时候;而在那种时候,愿意拿出资金的人很少,很多情况下其实大多数人也根本没能力在短时间内拿出大笔资金。所以,既然我们要做这样的承诺,就应该拿到非常好的条款;而我们之所以会做,也是因为条款足够好。

I mean, those were made in a period when markets were in chaos, and you should have gotten very good terms for committing money that very few people were either willing or, in many, most cases, able to commit major sums on short notice, and it took good terms in order for us to do it.

而且就像我说的,我不确定在那些情况下他们还有第二种选择。

And like I said, I'm not sure there was any second possibility in those cases.

那真的是一段非常特殊的时期。

It was a really extraordinary period.

我们很乐意去做。

We were happy to do it.

我对这些交易感觉很好,当然了,因为我们拿到了非常好的 coupon;但考虑到这些交易达成时的环境,我觉得,我觉得他们也没有别的选择。

I feel good about the deals, obviously, because we got a very good coupon, but considering the circumstances under which the deals were made, I don't think, I don't think there was an alternative.

所以,如果那两笔交易他们分别想要五十亿美元和三十亿美元的话,我,我觉得实际上我们已经算是出价最低的了。

So if they wanted $5 billion and $3 billion respectively on those deals, I, I think we were, we were the low bid in effect.

但我也认为,我们做成的是相当不错的交易。

But I also think we made, we made very decent deals.

还有,你知道,当时我们是不是能把这笔钱用在更好的地方?

And, you know, could we have done something better with the money at that time?

我不知道。

I don't know.

按我当时的衡量,我找不到任何比这个更喜欢的机会。

As I measured at that time, I could not find anything that I liked better.

压倒性起作用的是交易条款,虽然我们显然也喜欢这些企业本身。

It was the terms of the deals overwhelmingly, although we obviously like the businesses.

我跟这两家公司的管理者,也就是 CEOs,都非常熟,我觉得他们都是很了不起的人。

I know the managers, the CEOs of both companies very well, and I think they are terrific people.

我觉得他们很聪明,而且我觉得他们非常——他们一直都对我们很坦率,在跟我们做交易很早之前就是这样。

I think they're smart people, and I think they're very— they've been very straight with us, straight with us long before we made a deal with them.

所以我们对这些交易非常满意。

So we're very happy with those deals.
M1
M12:36

Charlie?

Charlie?
M2
M22:39

对,你知道,在这个领域里,investment banking 受到了很多批评,从那部电影开始就是这样。但有意思的是,Berkshire 自己从所有合作过的 investment bankers 那里,都得到了非常棒的服务。

Yeah, you know, there's been a lot of criticism of investment banking in this arena, starting with that movie, but Berkshire itself has had marvelous services from all of its investment bankers, which is interesting.

你想想,要是我们曾经被他们坑过,我们现在会怎么说。

Think of what we'd be saying if we'd been mistreated.

这些年来,我们和 Goldman Sachs 做了很多生意。我的经历甚至可以追溯到我十岁的时候,那时我见到了 Sidney Weinberg,他当时掌管着那家公司,而且是华尔街的传奇人物——呃,这么说吧,很长很长一段时间里,他几乎就是华尔街先生。

We've done a lot of business with Goldman Sachs over the years, and my experience goes back to when I was 10 years old and met Sidney Weinberg, who was running the firm and was a legendary Wall Street— uh, well, he was, he was, he was Mr. Wall Street for a long, long time.

我也是 Gus Levy 的朋友,Gus Levy 也确实帮过我们不少忙。比如当年我们有一家不起眼的小公司,叫 Diversified Retailing,那是 Charlie、我,还有 Sandy Gottesman 一起成立的。后来有一笔六百万美元的发行,由 New York Securities 带进来承销,Gus 参与进来了。通常情况下,像这种规模的交易,他根本不会考虑参与。

And I was a friend of Gus Levy's, and Gus Levy also did some really nice things for us, including when we had a little nothing company called Diversified Retailing, which Charlie and I and Sandy Gottesman jointly formed, Gus came in on an underwriting of a $6 million issue brought by New York Securities, which he wouldn't have dreamt of coming in, you know, for that kind of a deal under most circumstances.

当时也是他让 Goldman Sachs 一起加入进来的。

And he had Goldman Sachs join in at that time.

所以,有很多事情都让我们和 Goldman Sachs 的关系一直非常愉快。

So there have been a lot of things that have made for a very happy relationship with Goldman Sachs.

我对他们感觉很好。

I feel good about them.

当然,我们也和 General Electric 做很多生意。

And of course, we do lots of business with General Electric.

我们从他们那儿买了不知道多少台那种 wind turbines。

We've bought I don't know how many of those wind turbines from them.

不过你知道,GE 是一家非常非常重要的美国机构。

But GE, you know, is a very, very important American institution.

我们会——我们会卖给他们很多东西,也会从他们那里买很多东西,而且我们在投资上也会赚到钱。

We'll do— we'll sell them a lot of things, we'll buy a lot of things from them, and we'll make money on our investments.

这让我很高兴。

That keeps me happy.

Ari 8。

Ari 8.