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1998年股东大会 · 股东问巴菲特:什么会让你夜不能寐?芒格:据我观察,只有一件事

43 段 · 3 位说话人 · 原片 3:56
F1
F10:00

Jane Bell,来自 Des Moines。

Jane Bell, Des Moines.

自从我成为 Berkshire Hathaway 的股东以来,我就一直来参加这些会议。

Since I became a Berkshire Hathaway shareholder, I've been coming to these meetings.

这是我第二次来。

This is my second.
M1
M10:13

自从我成为股东之后,我就一直来参加这些会议。

I've been coming to these meetings ever since I've been a shareholder.
F1
F10:18

Buffett 先生,我是一家咨询公司的合伙人和老板,我们会告诉客户和潜在客户,我们提供的是针对那些让他们夜里睡不着的问题的解决方案。

Mr. Buffett, I'm a partner and owner in a consulting business, and we tell our clients and potential clients that we design solutions for what keeps them awake at night.

Buffett 先生,从你作为投资人的角度来看,什么事情会让你夜里睡不着?

Mr. Buffett, from your perspective as an investor, what keeps you awake at night?
M1
M10:39

嗯,这是个好问题,而且——这也是我总会问我们子公司管理层,以及任何、任何新的投资对象的一个问题。

Well, that's a good question, and I— that's one I always ask the managements of our subsidiaries as well as any, any new investment.

我想知道他们最怕的噩梦是什么。

I want to know what their nightmare is.

Andy Grove 在他的书《Only the Paranoid Survive》里提到过,竞争对手手里可能有一颗银色子弹。

Andy Grove in his book Only the Paranoid Survive talks about the silver bullet for a competitor.

所以如果说——你手里只有这一颗银色子弹,你会把它射向哪个竞争对手?

So in terms of a— if you only had one silver bullet, which competitor would you fire it at?

这其实不是个坏问题。

And it's not a bad question.

而你的问题范围还更广一点。

And your question's a little broader.

如果你只有一个担忧可以彻底消除,那会是什么?

If you only had one worry that you could get rid of, what would it be?

我会说——而且我想我也能代表 Charlie,不过还是让他自己说——但我们其实并不担心。

I would say that— and I think I speak for Charlie, I'll let him do it— but we really don't worry.

你知道,我们会尽自己最大的努力。

You know, we will do the best we can.

当我们要配置资本的时候,有时候非常容易做,有时候几乎没法做,但我们不会因此担心,因为你知道,世界一直在变化。

And when we have capital allocated, sometimes it's very easy to do, sometimes it's almost impossible to do, but we're not going to worry about it because it, you know, the world changes.

如果我们的业务里真有什么让我们担心的事,我们就会把它纠正过来。

And if we had something we were worried about in the business, we would correct it.

我们——我没在担心任何事情。

We're— I'm not worried about anything.

我也不会真的去担心,比如说,我们可能会因为 California 的一场地震损失十亿美元。

I'm not really worried about, you know, we can lose $1 billion on a California earthquake.
M2
M21:45

对。

Yeah.
M1
M11:46

但我也不会为这个担心,虽然我有个妹妹今天也在现场,而且她住在 California。

But I'm not worried about it, although I have a sister who's in the audience that lives in California.

我跟她说过,要是哪天狗开始绕圈跑之类的,就赶紧给我打电话。

I've told her to call me quickly if the dogs start running in circles or anything like that.

不过你知道,如果你在担心什么,正确的做法就是把它解决掉,然后回去继续睡觉。

But there's, you know, if you're worried about something, the thing to do is get it corrected and get back to sleep.

我想不出 Berkshire 有什么事情是让我担心的。

And I can't think of anything I'm worried about at Berkshire.

这并不是说,对于我们手上这么——这么大一笔钱到底该怎么用,我就有什么特别好的主意。

That doesn't mean that I have any good ideas as to what we should be doing with a lot of— a whole lot of money that we have around.

但是你知道,除了继续去找那些我可能看得懂、也值得我们把钱投进去的东西之外,我也做不了别的。

But, you know, I can't do anything about that except keep looking for things that I might understand and do something with the money.

如果没有,那就是没有。

And if they aren't there, they aren't there.

那我们就看看明天、下周、下个月,还有明年会发生什么。

And we'll, we'll see what happens tomorrow and next week and next month and next year.

Charlie,你担心什么?

Charlie, what are you worried about?
M2
M22:28

嗯,在这三十多年来我观察你的过程中,我会说,唯一能让你晚上睡不着的,就是家里有人生病。

Well, in the 30-some years I've been watching you, I would say what it takes to make you not sleep at night is an illness in the family.

除非发生那种情况,Warren 喜欢这个游戏,我也喜欢这个游戏,就算是在别人看起来很艰难的时期,这件事也还是很有意思。

Short of that, Warren likes the game, I like the game, and even in the periods that look tough to other people, it's a lot of fun.
M1
M12:50

真的很有意思。

It's a lot of fun.
M2
M22:51

真的很有意思。

It's a lot of fun.
M1
M12:55

其实,这大概是最——有点像——这就是最——我的意思是,我们对艰难时期的定义,和别人不太一样。我们所谓的艰难时期,更像是现在这样。至于——市场大跌或者诸如此类的情况,我们并不会觉得那是什么艰难时期。

In fact, it probably is the most— it's sort of— it is the most— I mean, we define tough times differently than other people would, but our idea of tough times is like now, and our idea of— we don't feel it's tough times when the market's going down a lot or anything of the sort.

所以那种时候我们反而过得挺开心。

So we're having a good time then.

我的意思是,我们也不想听起来像瘟疫时期的殡仪人员什么的,但是——不过说真的,Berkshire 的价格上涨还是下跌,对我们来说其实没什么区别。

I mean, we don't want to sound like undertakers during a plague or anything, but— but there's really, you know, it makes no difference to us whether the price of Berkshire is going up or down.

我们在努力想办法,让这家公司在几年以后更值钱。

We're trying to figure out ways to make the company worth more money years down the road.

如果我们把这件事想明白、做到位了,股价自然会自己反映出来。

And if we figure that out, the stock will take care of itself.

所以,而且通常股价下跌的时候,呃,也意味着别的东西也在跌,这对我们配置资本来说反而是更好的机会,而这就是我们的业务。

So, and usually when the stock is going down, uh, it means other things are going down and that it's, it's a better chance for us to deploy capital, and that's our business.

所以我们——你们不会看到我们在那儿担心。

So we— you will not see us worrying.

也许我们应该,呃,你知道,什么事会让我们担心呢?

Maybe we should, you know, what may worry?

没有。

No.

四区。

Zone 4.