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房产中介是个好生意吗?

42 段 · 3 位说话人 · 原片 6:24
M1
M10:00

这个问题来自 Atlanta 的 Daniel Kane。

This question is from Daniel Kane of Atlanta.
F1
F10:05

你今年的年度信里指出,Berkshire 已经成为美国房地产经纪行业的领军者。

Your annual letter this year pointed out that Berkshire has become a leader in real estate brokerage in the United States.

恭喜,这在不到二十年的时间里是个相当了不起的成就。

Congratulations, that is a significant feat in less than 20 years.

不过我想提一个有点棘手的点。

But let me mention a sticky point.

如果股票市场里主动型管理人的收费会拖累投资者的表现,那我会说,房地产佣金其实也没什么不同,甚至可能伤害更大,尤其是考虑到那些一开始就没了的大额现金流,对一生的影响,以及复利的力量。

If fees charged by stock market active managers are a drag on investor performance, I would argue that real estate commissions are no different, and perhaps more detrimental, especially when one considers the lifetime effects of large, foregone upfront cash flows and the power of compounding interest.

我很想听听你对我刚才这些观点的回应。

I would be pleased to hear your rejoinder on the points I've raised.
M1
M10:51

嗯,对相当大一部分人来说,买房是他们一生中最大的一笔金融交易。

Well, the purchase of a home is the largest financial transaction for a significant percentage of the population that they make.

而且人们,很多很多人,都需要大量关注;你可能得带人看很多很多套房子,最后才能卖出去一套。

And people, a lot of people need a lot of attention, and you can show a lot of houses before you sell one.

我会这么说,如果你看看我们现在差不多五万名经纪人。

I would say this, if you look at our close to 50,000 agents now.

我觉得他们过得不错,或者说收入还算体面;但我得说,那些管钱的人赚的钱要多得多,而他们对所服务对象的福祉,也许贡献还更少。

I think they make a good living or decent living, but I would say that people who manage money make a whole lot more money with perhaps less contribution to the welfare of the person that they're dealing with.

所以我不认为做房地产经纪人这里面有什么不寻常的暴利。

So I don't think that there are unusual profits involved in being a real estate agent.

我也不认为在所有权这一层面有什么不寻常的暴利。

I don't think there are unusual profits involved in the ownership.

我们喜欢这个行业,是因为它从根子上说是个好生意;但现在我们做的是全美国大概百分之三的房地产交易,一年也许赚两亿美元。

We like it because it's fundamentally a good business, but here we are doing 3% of all the real estate transactions in the United States, and we're making maybe $200 million a year.

这个嘛,Wall Street 那边要赚到两亿美元,付出的努力对比起来如何,我们就先不展开了;不过我想我得顺便讲一点 Roy Tolles 的故事。

Which, well, we won't get into what the comparative efforts are on Wall Street to earn $200 million, but I think I have to tell them about Roy Tolles a little bit on this.

比如说,Roy Tolles,也就是很多很多很多年前 Charlie 的合伙人,决定他想在 San Marino 买一套房子。

Roy Tolles, for example, Charlie's partner many, many, many years ago, decided he was going to want to buy a house in San Marino.

他当时打算要生好几个孩子。

He was going to have a number of kids.

所以他就让他那位很棒的太太 Martha 出马,整整六个月,让她去看 San Marino 的房子。

So he sent his wonderful wife, Martha, out, and for 6 months he had her look at houses in San Marino.

而这已经是很多年前的事了。

And this was many years ago.

如果房子开价是十五万美元,他就让她出价七万五千美元。

And if they were priced at $150,000, he had her offer $75,000.

当然,房地产经纪人都快疯了,因为他们本来以为一套挂牌十五万美元的房子,最后居然要按七万五千美元卖掉。

And of course, the real estate agents were going crazy because they were going to get something listed at $150,000 sold at $75,000.

最后,等她找到一套他们俩都真的很喜欢的房子时,他让她出价大概十二万美元。

And then finally, when she found one that they both really liked, he had her offer something like $120,000.

那位房地产经纪人高兴坏了,终于拿到一个大体上还在卖方报价区间里的出价,于是他会非常卖力地去做卖家的工作,劝卖家接受这个报价,因为他知道自己可不想再来六个月,看着 Roy 继续按更低的价格出价。

And the real estate agent was so happy to get a bid that was in the general area of the offering price that he would work very hard on the seller to take that bid because he knew he did not want 6 more months of Roy bidding at the lower prices.

所以你不是第一次带看就能把房子卖掉的。

So you don't sell them on the first trip.

顺便说一句,我曾经让 Roy 在没看房的情况下就从我这儿买了一套房,因为这家伙真的很懂人性。

Incidentally, I had Roy buy a house from me sight unseen, because this was a guy that knew human nature.

做房地产中介你是发不了大财的,人们赚的是辛苦钱,而且他们赚钱的方式是完全体面、完全光明正大的。

You don't get rich in real estate agency, you know, people earn their money, and they earn it in a perfectly respectable and honorable way.

就他们拿到的报酬来说,就是这么回事。

Manner in terms of what they get paid.

当然,任何一个行业里,都可能会有过头的地方,或者犯错,或者类似的情况。

And as in every single industry, there can be excesses or mistakes or that sort of thing.

不过我们还是会继续收购更多经纪公司。

But we will continue to buy more brokers.

事实上,可能过不了多久,我们还会再宣布两家。

In fact, we'll probably have another couple to announce before long.

而且我们会认为,如果有一天我们做到全国房地产经纪业务的百分之十,税前一年赚六亿到七亿美元,我们不会觉得这是什么离谱的钱,毕竟这是在帮助美国每年五百万个换房人群中的百分之十完成住房更换。

And we will feel that if we get to where we're doing 10% of the real estate brokerage business in the country, and we're making $600 or $700 million a year pretax, we will not think that's a crazy amount of money to make for enabling 10% of 5 million people to change their homes every year in the United States.

Charlie?

Charlie?
M2
M24:45

嗯,房产交易的佣金,如果说的是两千万美元这种级别,可能就会显得有点不太合理了。花两千万美元买房的交易还要付百分之五的佣金,听起来是有点夸张。不过,那种愿意花两千万美元买房的人,佣金稍微高一点,我们当中又有谁真的会在乎呢?

Well, the commissions in real estate may get unreasonable if you're talking about $20 million. It seems a little ridiculous to pay a 5% commission on a $20 million transaction, but do any of us really care if the kind of people who pay $20 million for a house have a slightly higher commission?

一般情况下的佣金,基本上还是实至名归的。

The ordinary commission is pretty well earned.
M1
M15:19

对,我们有不少 brokerage firm。

Yeah, we have a number of brokerage firms.

所以,最高的那家,在美国某个地区,它的平均每套成交价大概接近六十万美元,也就是房子的销售价格。

So the highest has their average transaction in one section of the country would be close to $600,000 a unit, but the—in terms of the sales price of the house.

不过在我们大多数房地产业务里,平均价格更接近二十五万美元,或者大致就是这个区间。

But in most of our real estate operations, the average price is more like $250,000 or something in that area.

而且,为了做成一单二十五万美元的交易,你可能得带客户看很多很多套房子。

And you can show a lot of houses to make one $250,000 sale.

当然,佣金通常还要在 listing company 和 selling company 之间分,一般是两家不同的公司。

And of course, you split the listing company and the selling company, usually two different companies.

所以在我看来,这并不过分。

So it does not strike me as excessive.

顺便说一句,在这个行业里的人自己也不觉得这有什么过分的。

And incidentally, it doesn't strike the people in the industry that way either.

这个行业并没有特别容易被线上模式替代,或者类似的东西取代。

It has not been particularly susceptible to online-type substitution or something of the sort.

大多数情况下,房产经纪人是赚得起这份佣金的。不过 Charlie 在两千万美元房子的交易上经验更多,所以这一块还是让他来评论吧。

The real estate agent earns their commission in most cases, but Charlie's had more experience with $20 million houses, so he, he will comment on that area.