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2011年股东大会 · 投资中国公司时,巴菲特会考虑哪些因素

41 段 · 3 位说话人 · 原片 4:31
M1
M10:00

Buffett 先生,Munger 先生,能见到你们,我感到非常荣幸,也非常高兴。

Mr. Buffett, Mr. Munger, it's an honor and a pleasure.

我叫 Ben Anderson。

My name is Ben Anderson.

我来自 Los Angeles。

I'm from Los Angeles.

如果你们在看中国的投资机会,那里的商业文化跟美国这边很不一样,成功的经营方式也同样和这里很不同。你们在决定投资一家中国公司时,会看重这家公司哪些特质呢?

When you're looking at an investment in China, where the business culture is a lot different than it is here in the U.S., and successful business practices are, again, very different than they are here, you know, what are the characteristics you look for when placing an investment in that company?

还有,这跟 Berkshire 一贯的基本原则有什么不同吗?

And is that any different than the general principles at Berkshire?
M2
M20:33

这个——

It's—.
M3
M30:33

我们遵循的是同样的原则,不过我们也知道,只要离开 United States,我们对税法、习俗,还有对待股东的态度这些方面的了解,就不如在 United States 那么多。

We follow the same principles, but we recognize that we know less about tax laws, about customs, about attitudes towards shareholders anytime we get outside the United States than we know in the United States.

当然,这种不确定性有大有小,嗯,我们会把它纳入考量。

Now, to varying degrees, uh, we weigh in that uncertainty.

当年我买 PetroChina 股票的时候,我记不太清了,大概是一九八三年左右——哦不,应该是二零零三年前后——它便宜得惊人,不管你是按储量、炼油能力、现金流,还是别的什么指标来算,都是如此。

At the time I bought PetroChina stock, which I don't know, it was probably 2003 or thereabouts, it was extraordinarily cheap in relation to any calculation of reserves or refining capacity or cash flow or you name it.

与此同时,Russia 的 Yukos 也同样非常非常便宜。

And at the same time, Yukos in Russia was similarly very, very cheap.

而且它们两家规模都很大。

And they were both huge.

你知道,我不是什么地缘政治专家,也不是这方面的人,但我当时觉得,买 PetroChina 比买 Yukos 让我更安心一些。

And, you know, I am no geopolitical expert or anything of the sort, but I decided I was more comfortable buying PetroChina than I was buying Yukos.

那我买 PetroChina 的时候,是否会像买一家规模相近的本土公司那样安心呢?

Now, was I as comfortable buying PetroChina as I would have been buying, you know, some domestic company of similar size?

不会,因为我了解得没那么多——那时候不了解,现在对中国税法里各种复杂细节、以及政策可能怎么变化,我知道的也还是没那么多。

No, because I don't know as much—I didn't know then, and I don't know as much now about all the intricacies of Chinese tax law and what the policies might be.

不过,不过我在读 PetroChina 的报告时,印象相当深,确实很受触动。

But, but I was fairly impressed, quite impressed, when I read the report of PetroChina.

举个例子,他们当时说会把——如果我没记错的话——百分之四十五的利润拿来发股息。

For one thing, they said they were going to pay out 45% of—as I remember, 45% of their earnings in dividends.

这一点,比 United States 任何一家石油公司会告诉我的都更多。

That's more than any company, oil company in the United States, would tell me.

所以我把这看作一个加分项,也看作一种我认为会兑现的意图,而后来他们也确实兑现了。

So I regarded that as a plus and an indication of, of intent that I thought would be fulfilled, and it has been fulfilled.

所以,对一些关键因素,我们会考虑到自己理解不够充分这一点,不会像在 United States 那样把握得那么好。

So we do make allowances for our lack of understanding, uh, as well as we might in the United States, uh, various key factors.

但最基本的原则——努力给企业估值、努力找到那些我们既信任其能力也信任其人品的管理层,然后再找到一个有吸引力的买入价格——这些原则在世界任何地方投资都适用。

But the basic principles of trying to value the business, trying to find managements in which we have confidence in both their ability and integrity, and then finding an attractive purchase price—those principles apply wherever in the world we would be investing.

Charlie?

Charlie?
M2
M22:47

嗯,我们在中国做的投资太少了,所以想从我们这里总结出什么普遍规律,其实很难。

Well, we make so few investments in China that trying to draw general lessons from us would be hard.

这让我想起一个故事:有个教授夏天去了西部,回来之后对同事们说,我发现 Indians 走路总是排成单列。

It reminds me of the time a professor went west for the summer, and he came back to his faculty, and he said, I've learned that Indians always walk single file.

别人就问他,你是怎么得出这个结论的?

And they said, how did you figure that out?

他说,我看见过一个,而他就是那么走的。

And he said, I saw one, and he did.
M3
M33:16

我们怎么从这儿又扯到中国来了?

How do we get from there to China?
M2
M23:18

我的意思是,我们在中国也就只有那么一两个项目,就像那个唯一见到的 Indian 一样。

Well, we only had a couple of things in China that were like the one Indian.

你没法从我们的——得出什么普遍结论。

You can't draw general lessons from our—.
M3
M33:27

不过我们愿意明天就开始看。

But we're willing to look tomorrow.

我的意思是,很显然,如果有人打电话来给我们一个机会——那得是相当大规模的投资才行,因为对我们来说,只投个一两亿美元的东西,根本没什么意义。

I mean, obviously, if we had a call on some—it'd have to be a significant-size investment, because we—it just doesn't make any sense for us to look at things we can just put a couple hundred million dollars in.

不过你知道,我很喜欢去看看各种各样的点子。

But we, you know, I love the idea of looking at various ideas.

我是说,听到一些我以前不了解的公司或者生意,我会觉得这像个特别有意思的游戏。

I mean, I find it a fascinating game to hear about companies or businesses that are new to me.

现在的问题是,因为我们的体量太大了,我们能考虑的范围反而小了很多。

And the problem now is that the universe has gotten much smaller because of our size.

不过,我们很欢迎很多国家打电话来。

But we welcome a call from a lot of countries.
M2
M24:08

谢谢。

Thank you.
M3
M34:08

有些国家确实太小了。

There's some countries that are just too small.

那种地方不太可能有能对 Berkshire 这样规模的公司产生明显影响的企业,所以这些就不在考虑名单上了。

They're not going to have businesses that could move the needle at a place like Berkshire, and so those are off the list.
M2
M24:17

不过中国至少有一家民营公司,每年税后能赚三十多亿美元。

But China has at least one private company that makes over $3 billion a year after taxes.

外面还是有一些大机会的。

There's some big things out there.
M3
M34:26

我回头再跟他把名字问过来,不过我不想让你听见。

I'll get the name from him later, but I don't want you to hear.

Becky?

Becky?