← 返回任务列表

1995年股东大会 · 为何巴菲特情愿放弃高回报,也不轻易卖掉持有的公司

43 段 · 3 位说话人 · 原片 5:21
M1
M10:00

对,Jeff Peskin,来自 New York City。

Yes, Jeff Peskin from New York City.

我有个关于年报的问题。你在里面说,很明显,往后因为 Berkshire 的体量变大了,未来的回报大概率没法和过去的回报相比。

And I was— I have a question on the annual report where you say that obviously going forward, due to the size of Berkshire, the returns going forward probably won't match the returns of the past.

然后你又接着说,可能妨碍这一点的一个因素,是你其实不太喜欢卖掉自己持有的公司。

And then you go on to state that one thing that may hinder that is the fact that you don't really like to sell companies that you own.

所以我就是想知道这里面的逻辑是什么:如果你手上有一家公司或者一项投资,你觉得它未来表现不会像别的去处那么好,没法比得上你把钱重新投到其他地方的收益,那为什么还要继续持有,而不是把钱调配到别处去?

And I would just like to know what the reasoning is in that if you've got a company or investment that you don't think is going to do as well as where you could put the money going forward, what really the reasoning is for holding on and not redeploying the money elsewhere.

嗯。

Yeah.
M2
M20:41

我先稍微纠正你一点。

I'll just correct you just slightly on that.

第一,我没说我们大概率会比过去做得差。

A, I didn't say we'd probably do worse than the past.

我说的是,我们一定会比过去做得差。

I said we will do worse than the past.

我的意思是,我们根本不可能再达到过去那种百分比回报。

I mean, there's no way we could match percentage numbers of the past.

不然的话,你知道,在一个不会太长的时间里,假设我们一分钱都不分红,我们就会把整个 GDP 都吞下来了。这事我们也许偶尔会想一想,但我们确实不觉得自己真能做到。

That, you know, we would, in a period that would not take that long, we would, assuming we paid out nothing, we would gobble up the whole GDP, which is something we may think about occasionally, but we don't really expect to accomplish.

第二点,这个问题是跟规模有关的。

And the second point, that that relates to size.

这跟我们不愿意卖掉企业没关系,因为这种不愿意,几十年来一直都存在。

That does not relate to our unwillingness to sell businesses, because that unwillingness has existed for decades.

但规模可不是几十年来一直都有这么大。

But the size has not existed for decades.

体量这件事就是这样,翻倍十二 billion 美元左右,要比翻倍一点二 billion 美元难;而翻倍一点二 billion 美元,又比翻倍一亿两千万美元更难。

The size is, you know, doubling $12 billion or so is harder than doubling $1.2 billion, which was harder than doubling $120 million.

这个是毫无疑问的。

I mean, there's no question about that.

所以最终——其实现在已经开始了——它会拖累业绩表现。

So eventually, well, already, it will be a drag on performance.

这并不意味着表现会很糟,但确实意味着,百分之二十三这个历史数字并没有预测价值。

It doesn't mean that the performance will be terrible, but it does mean that 23% is an historical figure that has no predictive value.

至于不愿意卖企业这件事,就像我说的,由来已久。

The unwillingness to sell businesses, like I say, goes back a long way.

如果这会伤害业绩,那也只是毛毛雨。

That is not what— if that hurts performance, it's peanuts.

这其实就是一个事实,也就是 Charlie 和我共同的态度:我们想按自己想要的方式过日子,而在生意场上,能遇到我们真正想打交道的人,是很罕见的。

That's simply a fact, a function of the attitude Charlie and I have, is that if we want to live our lives, we find that it a rarity when we find people in the business that we want to associate with.

一旦我们真的遇到了这样的人,我们是很享受这种合作的。

When we do find that, we enjoy it.

我们看不出有什么理由,为了每年多赚零点五个百分点或者一个百分点,去做别的选择。

We don't see any reason to make an extra half a percent a year or 1% a year.

更高的数字你们也别拿来试我们了,但我们就是看不出有什么理由,要到处去结束我们和别人之间的友谊、联系或者关系。

Don't try us on higher numbers, but we don't see a reason to go around ending friendships we have with people or contact or relationships.

对我们来说,这就是讲不通。

It just doesn't make any sense to us.

我们不想让自己陷进那种做法里。

We don't want to get committed to that sort of activity.

我们知道,如果我们是一家私人公司,我们也不会那样做。

We know we wouldn't do it if we were a private company.

现在在 Berkshire,我们觉得自己已经把这个立场说清楚了,而且我们也想把这一点传达给每一个可能和我们站到一起的人,因为我们不希望他们指望我们这么做。

Now, in Berkshire, we feel we've enunciated that position and we want to get that across to everybody who might join with us because we don't want them to expect us to do it.

我们希望他们期待的是,我们会努力工作,争取一个还不错的结果,并确保股东拿到和我们一样的结果,诸如此类;但我们不想和其他股东之间形成某种默认的契约,逼得我们不得不按一种其实——我们并不想要的方式去行事。

We want them to expect us to work hard to get a decent result and to make sure that the shareholders get the same result we get and all of that sort of thing, but we don't want to enter into any implicit contract with our fellow shareholders that will cause us to have to behave in a way that we really— we don't want to behave.

如果赚更多钱的代价是这个,那这个代价我们不想付。

If that's the price of making more money, it's a price we don't want to pay.

还有别的东西,我们也一样会主动放弃。

There's other things we— other things we forego also.

但这一点,别人可能会跟我们有不同看法,所以我们希望大家一开始就非常清楚地明白这一点。

But that is the one that people might disagree with us on, so we want to be very sure that everybody understands that going in.

这是你投资这里时买下的一部分,而且这也许——不过我觉得不管怎么说,它对业绩的伤害也不会太大——但如果确实有影响,那这就是你跟我们在一起要接受的一个限制。

That's part of what you buy here, and it may—I don't think it'll hurt performance that much anyway, but to the extent it does, it's a limitation you get with us.

Charlie?

Charlie?
M3
M33:57

我觉得这件事没法精确衡量。

I don't think there's any way to measure it exactly.

但我的猜测是,如果你能去评估一种东西——你可以把它叫作 Berkshire 旗下运营业务管理者的人格品质——这些人里很多当初就是这些企业的创建者之一,而且也是自己社区里的领军人物,像 Helzbergs 这样——我觉得美国没有任何一家别的公司在这方面能比我们做得更好。

But my guess is that if you could appraise something you might call the character of the people that are running the operating businesses in Berkshire, many of whom helped create the businesses in the first place and are leading citizens in their community, like the Helzbergs, I don't think there's any other corporation in America that's done as well as we have.

如果你衡量的是里面这些人的素质的话。

If you measure the human quality of the people who are in it.

当然你也可以说,我们是把高素质的人聚到了一起,因为我们他妈的肯定没本事把他们创造出来;但不管怎么说,这都是一个了不起的体系,那我们为什么要去瞎折腾它呢?

Now you can say we've collected high-grade people, because we sure as hell couldn't create them, but one way or another, this is a remarkable system, and why would we tinker with it?
M2
M24:46

如果你想吸引高素质的人,你自己大概也应该尽量把事情做得像样一点。

If you want to attract high-grade people, you probably ought to try and behave pretty well yourself.

再说了,换一种做法也没什么意思。

Besides, it wouldn't be any fun doing the other.

我的意思是,我在六十年代经营 partnership 的时候,也多少处在那样的位置上。说真的,那时候人们是来跟我一起做 partnership 的,而我的工作就是尽可能做出最好的回报。

I mean, I was in that position a little bit when I ran the partnership back in the '60s, and I really, you know, people were coming into partnership with me and my job was to turn out the best return that we could.

后来我发现,一旦我进入某个企业,就会出现一些我并不喜欢的选择。

And I found that if I got into a business, that presented certain alternatives that I didn't like.

所以在这一点上,Berkshire 要让人满意得多。

So Berkshire's much more satisfactory in that respect.

五号区?

Zone 5?