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2017年股东大会 · 伯克希尔的内在价值与账面价值还有多少关系?

28 段 · 3 位说话人 · 原片 3:18
M1
M10:00

这个问题是关于 Berkshire 的内在价值。

This question is on Berkshire's intrinsic value.

公司价值里有很大一部分,驱动因素其实是经营性业务,而不是证券投资组合的表现。

A substantial portion of the company's value is driven by operating businesses rather than the performance of the securities portfolio.

另外,之前收购的那些业务,它们的价值也没有按照真实的经济价值往上调,包括 GEICO、MidAmerican 和 Burlington Northern。

Also, the values of previously acquired businesses are not marked up to their economic value, including GEICO, MidAmerican, and Burlington Northern.

基于这些因素,每股账面价值对于给 Berkshire 估值,是不是仍然是一个有参考意义的指标?

Based on these factors, is book value per share still a relevant metric for valuing Berkshire?
M2
M20:28

嗯,它还是有一些参考意义的,但比起以前,参考意义已经小很多了。

Well, it's got some relevance, but it's got a whole lot less relevance than it used to.

所以这也是为什么——我不想把每股账面价值这个因素去掉,但是随着几十年过去,市场价值往往变得更有意义。

And that's why I've— I don't want to drop the book value per share factor, but the market value tends to have more significance as the decades roll along.

它是一个起点,而且很显然,按当时的情况,我们的证券资产不会比账上记录的价值更低。

It's a starting point, and clearly our securities aren't worth more than we're carrying them for at that time.

但另一方面,我们有你提到的那类业务,也有一些小业务,它们的实际价值大概是账面价值的十倍左右——当然,我们也有一些不怎么样的业务。

And on the other hand, we've got the kind of businesses you mentioned, but we've got some small businesses that are worth 10 times or so, you know, what their carrying value— we've also got some clunkers too.

呃,不过我觉得,最好的方法当然还是直接去计算企业的内在经营价值,只不过,呃,这个没法做到特别精确。

Uh, but I think the best method, of course, is just to calculate intrinsic business value, but, uh, it can't be precise.

我们知道——我们认为,有极高的概率,一百二十Percent这个数字其实是低估了它。

We know— we, we think the probability is exceptionally high that 120% understates it.

当然,如果资产全都是证券的话,你知道,一百二十Percent又会显得太高了。

Although if it was all in securities, you know, 120% would be too high.

但是随着这些业务不断发展,随着我们在经营性业务里积累了那些在会计上没有体现出来的、呃、未被确认的价值,呃,我觉得账面价值还是有一些用处的,可以算是我们采用的一个基础数字。

But as the businesses have evolved, as we've built in unrecognized, uh, value at the operating businesses, unrecognized for accounting purposes, uh, I think it still has some use as being kind of the base figure we use.

如果这是一家非上市公司,而且我们这里十个人共同拥有它,那我们每年就会坐下来,把各项业务一个一个地算一遍,然后把那个结果作为基础价值。

If it were a private company and 10 of us here owned it, instead we'd just sit down annually and calculate the businesses one by one and, and use that as a base value.

但当你拥有像我们这么多业务的时候,这就会变得相当主观。

But that gets, that gets pretty subjective when you've got as many as we do.

所以,呃,我觉得最简单的做法,还是用我们现在采用的这些标准,同时承认它们本身的局限性。

And, uh, so I think the easiest thing is to use the standards we're using now, recognizing the limitations in them.

Charlie。

Charlie.
M3
M32:15

对,我认为,在一家保险公司里,用来对应公司股东权益的那些股票资产,其实并不值全部的市场价,因为它们被锁在一个高税负体系里面。

Yeah, I think that equities in an insurance company offsetting shareholders' equity in the company are really not worth the full market value because they're locked away in a high-tax system.

所以基本上,我们那些可交易证券下跌的时候,我反而挺喜欢。

And so I basically like it when our marketable securities go down.

我们自己的业务会上升。

Our own businesses go up.
M2
M22:47

对,我们就是朝着这个方向在努力。

Yeah, we're working to that end.

我们这样做已经有三十年左右了,差不多就是这样。

We've been working that way for 30 years now or something like that.
M3
M32:52

而且我们做得还相当不错。

We've done a pretty good job too.

对,我们有很多——我们已经用很多不上市、不可交易的证券,替代了可交易证券,而那些东西其实更值钱得多。

Yeah, we have a lot of— we've replaced a lot of marketable securities with unmarketable securities that are worth a lot more.

对。

Yeah.
M2
M23:07

实际上,除此之外,这样经营起来也更让人享受。

It's actually a more enjoyable way to operate too, beyond that.
M3
M33:10

不过这样一来,我们也认识了很多原本不会——对,不会接触到的人。

But we know a lot of people we wouldn't otherwise— yeah, be with.

都是很好的人。

Good people.
M2
M23:17

好,三号提问点。

Okay, station 3.