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1994年股东大会 · 巴菲特:什么时候该集中投资,什么时候应该分散化

38 段 · 3 位说话人 · 原片 3:45
M1
M10:00

Buffett 先生,我叫 Aaron Morris。

Mr. Buffett, my name is Aaron Morris.

我来自 California。

I'm from California.

我想知道的是,对于一项具体的证券,你愿意下多大的仓位,你是怎么考虑的;一方面是像你们这种会不断有新现金流入、可以继续投资的情况,另一方面是那种资金总量固定的投资者,他们在决定一只自己特别看好的证券时,最多应该投进去多少。

What I wanted to know was how you think about how large a position you're willing to take in a given security, both in your case where you have new cash coming in that you can invest, and in the case of an investor where they have a fixed amount of capital and they're trying to decide what's the most they should put in a security that they really love.
M2
M20:23

嗯,Charlie 和我——按我们现在这个规模来看,我们大概永远都找不到那种我们想投多少钱进去、就真能投进去那么多的钱的机会。

Well, Charlie and I have— probably at our present size, we will never find anything that we get as much money into as we want.

Charlie,如果我们真的特别喜欢一项投资,你也觉得这大概是对的吧?

Don't you think that's probably true, Charlie, if we really like it?
M3
M30:37

对,我觉得很有可能。

Yeah, I think that's quite likely.
M2
M20:39

对,所以我们大概永远碰不到那个上限。

Yeah, so we will probably never hit the limit.

我们非常希望——我们很希望能找到那种我们有这么强烈把握的机会,偶尔也确实能碰到,但我们投进去的钱还是不会像我们希望的那么多;也不会像如果我们只是在管理一百万美元自己的钱,或者类似那样一个规模时,能投进去那么多。

We would love to— we'd love to find something we felt that strongly about, and occasionally we do, but we won't get as much money into it as we would wish, or as if we were running a million dollars of our own money or some number like that.

所以我们是愿意把很多钱投进单一一只证券里的。

So we are willing to put a lot of money into a single security.

我当年管理 partnership 的时候,单一一只股票最高大概做到过百分之四十。

When I ran the partnership, the limit I got to was about 40% in a single stock.

Charlie,我想你当年管理你的 partnership 的时候,仓位是超过百分之四十的。

I think, Charlie, when you ran your partnership, you had more than 40%.
M3
M31:14

当然。

Sure.
M2
M21:19

如果我们现在管理的是更小规模的 partnership,或者我们自己的资本规模更小,而且是我们自己来管的话,我们也会这么做。

And we would do the same thing if we were running smaller partnerships, or our own capital were smaller, and we were running that ourselves.

因为,现在我们不会这么做,除非我们觉得自己非常了解这个生意,而且我们认为这个生意的性质、我们付出的价格、经营它的人,以及所有这些因素加在一起,意味着几乎没有风险。

Because, now, we're not going to do that unless we think we understand the business very well, and we think that the nature of the business, what we're paying for it, the people running it, and all of that lead up to virtually no risk.
M3
M31:40

对,所有这些。

All of that.
M2
M21:41

不过,这样的机会你偶尔是能碰到的。

And— but you find those things occasionally.

如果——假设它比第二、第三、第四选择都要吸引人得多——我们会把自己净资产里很大一个比例投进去。

And we would put— assuming it were that much more attractive than the second, third, and fourth choices, we would put a big percentage of our net worth in it.

我们只会建议你这么做——也许大概根本不会建议你这么做吧——但如果要建议,也只有在一种情况下:这是基于你自己的判断、你自己对价值的理解,而且你对它的了解已经足够深,深到你会愿意把整个公司都买下来。

We only advise you to do that— probably don't advise you to do it at all, maybe— but we would only advise you to do it if you're doing it based on your own conclusions about your own ideas of value and something that you really feel you know enough to buy the whole business.

如果你的资金足够,而且别人也愿意把整个业务卖给你,那你就应该真正理解这个生意。

If your funds were sufficient and it was being offered to you, you ought to really understand the business.

顺便说一句,人们在 private business 里其实一直都在这么干,哪怕那些生意的前景很糟糕。

But people do that all the time, incidentally, in private businesses which have got terrible prospects.

我的意思是,他们会去买干洗店、加油站之类的,或者某种 franchise——他们会把自己净资产里非常高的比例投进某个东西里,而那个生意本质上其实风险很高。

I mean, they buy dry cleaning establishments or filling stations or whatever, and they put very high— or franchises of some kind— they put a very high percentage of their net worth into something, a business that's very risky, basically.

我的意思是,它,呃,它——

I mean, it, uh, it—.
M3
M32:32

他们——

They—.
M2
M22:33

你知道,人们会把自己所有的钱都投进一个农场里。

People put all their money in a farm, you know.

那也是一门生意。

It's, it's a business.

它也会受到各种各样商业风险的影响。

It's subject to all kinds of business risks.

所以,如果你非常了解这个生意,而且价格也足够有吸引力,那么把自己净资产里相当大的一部分投进去,并不疯狂。

So it's not crazy if you understand the business well, and if the price is sufficiently attractive, to put a very significant percentage of your net worth in.

如果你不了解企业,那你最好还是分散投资,而且要分散得比较广。

If you don't understand businesses, then you're better off diversifying, and fairly widely diversifying.
M1
M12:55

所以——

So—.
M2
M22:55

不,你继续说。

No, go ahead.

不好意思。

Sorry.
M3
M32:57

Berkshire 有一位持股很多的股东,他父亲当年建立了最初的持仓,后来他去世的时候,留下了一大笔遗产,几乎全部都放在两种证券里:Berkshire 和另一只。

Berkshire has a substantial shareholder whose father accumulated the original position, and when he died, he left a very large estate, practically all of which was in 2 securities, Berkshire and one other.

那也是一家非常出色的公司,而且有一家银行担任共同受托人。

Outstanding company, and a bank was co-trustee.

那位银行的信托专员就说,你们必须把这个分散投资。

And the bank trust officer said, you've got to diversify this.

而且这是一笔规模非常大的遗产。

And it was a very large estate.

跟银行一起担任共同受托人的那个年轻人就说,嗯,他说,你知道,要是我父亲也像你这样想,那他可能就会是在银行里当个信托专员,而不是留下这么大一笔遗产了。

And the young man who was co-trustee with the bank said, well, he says, you know, if my father had believed the way you do, he might have been a trust officer in a bank instead of leaving this large estate.

而那个年轻人直到今天还一直持有 Berkshire,我猜那家银行大概也还在给同样的建议。

And that young man holds the Berkshire to this day, and I suppose the bank is still giving the same advice.
M2
M23:44

二区?

Zone 2?