M10:15
对啊,那很可能会是 Congress 有史以来干过的最愚蠢的一件事。
Yeah, well, it would probably be the most asinine, you know, act that Congress has ever performed.
当年 Indiana 在十九世纪九十年代那会儿,我记得他们好像通过过一个法案。
That one time in Indiana back in the 1890s, I think they passed a bill.
我知道那个法案是被提出来过。
I know it was introduced.
你可以去搜索引擎上查一下。
You can look it up on a search engine.
呃,他们曾经搞过一个法案,要把圆周率 pi,也就是数学里的 pi,改成整数三,因为他们说这样学生算起来更容易。
Uh, they passed a bill to change the value of pi, the mathematical term pi, to an even 3 because they said it would be easier for the schoolchildren to work with.
嗯,这是我唯一能想到的、能跟拒绝提高债务上限这件事一较高下的法案了。
Well, that's the only bill I can think of that would give competition to a refusal to raise the debt ceiling.
我的意思是,这太离谱了。
I mean, it's extraordinary.
我是说,真的很离谱。现在我们的赤字每个月都远远超过一千亿美元,呃,而且还有各种各样没法改动的支出——我是说,一开始设置债务上限这件事本身就是个错误。
I mean, it really is extraordinary that with our deficit running, you know, well over $100 billion a month, uh, and all kinds of items that can't be changed— I mean, having a debt ceiling to start with is a mistake.
我的意思是,这个——二零一一年时的 United States,债务承受能力跟一九一一年的 United States 不一样,而且我们一直——这会是一个不断增长的国家,我们的债务承受能力也会不断增长。
I mean, it doesn't— the United States of 2011 has a different debt capacity than the United States of 1911, and we're always— it's going to be a growing country, and we're going to have a growing debt capacity.
这并不代表我觉得让债务占 GDP 的比例不断上升是什么好主意,但你设一个债务上限在那里,让大家玩这种把戏,浪费那么多时间,还有——还有你知道的——你会听到那么多荒唐的说法。
That doesn't mean I think it's a great idea at all to have debt growing as a percentage of GDP, but to stick debt ceilings on so that these games get played, and all the time that gets wasted and everything, and— and the, you know, the amount of— number of silly statements that you hear.
这就让人觉得,对一个有很多事情要做的国家来说,真是太浪费时间了。
And it just, it just seems such a waste of time for a country that's got a lot of things to do.
嗯,不过最后,他们不会——在我看来,他们不提高债务上限的可能性是零。
Um, but in the end, they won't— in my view, there's no chance that they, uh, don't increase the debt ceiling.
而且我真希望他们能,你知道,就像——嗯,我真希望他们干脆把这个概念取消掉,因为它只会导致这种周期性出现的、呃、类似僵局的操作,大家都拿它来做姿态、作秀之类的。
And I would love to see them, you know, like— well, I'd love to see them eliminate the idea because it just, it results in these periodic, uh, kind of stalemate operations where everybody uses it for posturing purposes and everything of the sort.
但是,呃,只要我们继续用自己的货币来发行票据,United States 就不会出现任何形式的债务危机。
But, uh, it— the United States is not going to have a debt crisis, uh, of any kind as long as we keep issuing our notes in our own currency.
而我会——能够用自己的货币借钱,和不得不用别人的货币借钱,这两者的差别真的是天壤之别。
And I would— the difference between being able to borrow in your own currency and having to borrow in another currency is night and day.
我们唯一需要担心的,就是印钞机和通货膨胀。
The only thing we have to worry about is the printing press and inflation.
如果你是 Euro,也就是 European Monetary Union 的成员,你就得担心——因为你不能印钱。
And if you're a member of the Euro, European Monetary Union, you have to worry about— you can't print money.
你可以去找其他成员国,看看能不能帮你一把。
You can go and get your co-members to try and help you out.
但是,放弃用自己本币发行债务的权利,是非常重大的一步,而 United States 并没有这么做。
But giving up the right to issue debt in your own currency is a huge step, and the United States has not done it.
我不知道我们以前有没有用其他货币发行过 U.S. bonds,不过我们肯定没有把这当成惯例。
I don't know whether we've ever issued U.S. bonds in any other currency, but we certainly haven't made a habit of it.
顺便说一句,Japanese 的债务占 GDP 比例也很高,但他们也一直都是用自己的货币来借钱。
And the Japanese, incidentally, which have a very high ratio of debt to GDP also have consistently borrowed in their own currency.
你要相信我,到了该还钱的时候,你如果可以选择怎么还——或者说,你被迫用别人的货币来还,跟用自己的货币来还——那完全是两回事。
And believe me, when it's time to pay somebody back and you have a choice of paying— and you're forced to pay in somebody else's currency versus paying in your own— it's an entirely different proposition.
事实上,Charlie 和我,当年还想买 Chicago 那家银行。
Matter of fact, Charlie and I, we were trying to buy that bank back in Chicago.
对,在六十年代后期的 Chicago。
Yeah, in Chicago in the late 1960s.
那是个货币非常紧的时候,而那时候的货币紧,和今天说的货币紧,不是一回事。
And this was a time of really tight money, and tight money was different then than tight money is today.
我是说,那种紧,紧到就是根本没钱。
I mean, it, it, uh, tight money meant no money.
当时有人——我们想买这家银行,而他们希望——我记得我们唯一能找到钱的地方,好像是在 Kuwait,而且是借 Kuwaiti dinars,对吧?
And somebody—we wanted to buy this bank, and they wanted—the only place we could find some money, I think, was in Kuwait in dinars, wasn't it?