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2006年股东大会 · 巴菲特承认,50倍市盈率的可口可乐没有卖掉,是个错误

21 段 · 2 位说话人 · 原片 2:33
M1
M10:00

我是来自 Connecticut 的 Phil McCall。

This is Phil McCall from Connecticut.

我想问一下,您已经有一段时间没谈到 Coca-Cola 了。现在您已经不在董事会了,我想知道,您是不是觉得可以更自由地谈谈它?

I wonder, it's been some time since you've commented on Coca-Cola, and now that you're off the board, I wonder if you feel free to comment on it.
M2
M20:11

嗯,我不会发表和我还在董事会时特别不同的看法,不过 Coca-Cola 是一家非常出色的公司。

Yeah, well, I won't make particularly different comments than from when I was on the board, but Coca-Cola is a fabulous company.

今年,Coca-Cola 各种产品的销量会超过两百一十亿箱。在全世界,它卖的还是 Coke 最多,而且销量每年都在增长。

Coca-Cola will sell over 21 billion cases of various products, more Coke than anything else around the world this year, and it goes up every year.

有意思的是,那个时候,大概是九七年还是九八年,我记不清了,股价曾经超过每股八十美元,可当时每股收益是多少来着?我记得好像只有一块五左右。

It's interesting, the stock in what, 1997 or '98, whenever it was, sold over $80 a share when the earnings were - I don't remember what - $1.50 a share or something like that.

而且,当时的盈利质量还没有现在这么好。现在每股收益大概是两块一毛七,或者差不多这个数。

And the earnings then were not as of good quality as the earnings are now when, you know, they were $2.17 or something like that.

而且每年,你知道,他们在全世界人们消费的液体饮料中所占的份额,都会再增加一点。

And every year, the - you know, they have - they, they account for a little greater share of the liquids consumed by people in the world.

他们的投入资本回报率非常惊人。

They make fabulous returns on invested capital.

你知道,这是一门很了不起的生意。先不算装瓶业务,它只有五十亿到六十亿美元的有形资产,却能赚到差不多同样多的钱。

You know, it's a business that has - exclude the bottling part of it - has $5 or $6 billion of tangible assets and makes a similar amount.

所以,全世界能在有形资产上赚到百分之百税前回报的大型企业,实在不多。

So there are not lots of big businesses in the world that earn 100% pre-tax on tangible assets.

所以,它会是一门非常出色的生意,而且一直都是一门很出色的生意。

And, um, it'll be a great business, and it's been a great business.

回头看,股价当时显然涨到了一个荒谬的水平。但你不能把这件事怪到现任管理层 Neville Isdell 头上。

The stock got to what in retrospect clearly was a ridiculous level, but you can't hold the present management, Neville Isdell, responsible for that.

而且,你知道,如果公司今年卖出的产品比去年多百分之四或百分之五,而全世界人口增长了百分之二,那就意味着,今年有更多的人把这种饮料灌进了喉咙,比去年更多。

And he, you know, if the company sells 4 or 5% more units this year than last year and the population of the world goes up, goes up 2%, it just means that more people are putting that particular source of liquid down their throats than the year before.

这种情况从一八八六年起就一直在发生。

And that's been going on ever since 1886.

所以在我们看来,这确实是一门非常棒的生意,只不过几年前它的售价实在太离谱了。

So it strikes us as a, as a really wonderful business that sold at a very silly price, uh, some years back.

当然,你完全可以怪我没有把股票卖掉。

And, and you can definitely fault me for not selling the stock.

我一直认为这是一门非常出色的生意,但很明显,按五十倍市盈率计算,这个股价实在太荒谬了。

I always thought it was a wonderful business, but clearly at 50 times earnings, it was a silly price on the stock.

所以,我们喜欢这家公司。

So we, we like it.

在我看来,十年之后我们还会持有它。

We'll own it 10 years from now, in my view.

Charlie?

Charlie?

没什么要补充的了。

No more.