2003年股东大会 · 巴菲特利用期权及他人的疯狂赚取1.2亿美元 — 文稿

M10:00

早上好，先生们。

Good morning, gentlemen.

我叫 Hugh Stevenson。

My name is Hugh Stevenson.

我是来自 Atlanta 的股东。

I'm a shareholder from Atlanta.

你们过去曾经表示过，你们认为基于波动率的，或者说 Black-Scholes 这种期权定价模型，并不正确。

You had indicated in the past that you did not think that the volatility-based or Black-Scholes models for options pricing was correct.

能不能跟我们分享一下，你们在自己做业务时使用期权，或者在市场上看到期权的时候，会怎么给这些期权估值？

Would you share with us how you would evaluate those options as you use them in the business or see them in the marketplace?

另外，考虑到最近 National Settlement Trust 等等这些新进展，也想请你们更新一下你们对 asbestos tort situation，也就是石棉诉讼局势的看法。

And also, if you would update us on your thoughts on the asbestos tort situation, given recent developments of the National Settlement Trust, et cetera.

M20:31

对，我和 Charlie 这一辈子都在琢磨期权这个东西。

Yeah, we— Charlie and I have thought about options all our life.

我的猜测是，Charlie 小学的时候可能就在想这个了。

I mean, my guess is Charlie was thinking about that in grade school.

而且，你知道，你得明白——你不一定非得懂 Black-Scholes，但你必须理解期权的用途，以及从总体上说它的价值。

And, you know, and I mean, you have to understand— you don't have to understand Black-Scholes at all, but you have to understand the utility and, in a general sense, the value of options.

你还得明白发行期权的成本，而这在某些圈子里是个很不受欢迎的话题。

And you have to understand the cost of issuing options, which is a very unpopular subject in certain quarters.

任何期权都是有价值的。

Any option has value.

我是说，我一九五八年花三万一千五百美元买了一栋房子。

I mean, I bought a house in 1958 for $31,500.

假设那套房子的卖家当时对我说，我想要一个这套房子的期权，永久有效，执行价是二十万美元。

And let's assume the seller of that house had said to me, I'd like an option on it, good in perpetuity, at $200,000.

嗯，如果我真给了他，这事看起来好像对我没什么成本，但期权就是有价值。

Well, that wouldn't have seemed like it cost me much if I'd given it to him, but an option has value.

任何期权都有价值。

Any option has value.

这也就是为什么有些人在商业事务上比较滑头，有时候能用很少的钱，甚至不花钱，就拿到期权。

And that's why some people who are, you know, kind of slick in business matters sometimes get options for very little or for nothing.

我说的不是 stock options。

I'm not talking about stock options.

我只是说购买任何东西的期权。

I'm just talking about an option to purchase anything.

他们拿到这些期权的代价，往往远远低于它真正的市场价值。

They get options for far less than really a market value would be.

Black-Scholes 是一种试图衡量期权市场价值的方法，它会把一些变量代进去计算；但其中最重要、也最可能存在分歧——嗯，也就是如果你和别人看法不同就可能赚到钱——的那个变量，是它基于相关资产过去的波动率，而过去的波动率并不是判断价值的最佳标准。

Black-Scholes is an attempt to measure the market value of options, and it cranks in certain variables, but the most important variable that it cranks in that might be subject— well, might be a case where if you had differing views, you could make some money— it's based upon the past volatility of the asset involved, and past volatilities are not the best judge of value.

我的意思是，如果你在不同时间点去看 Berkshire 股票的五年期期权，Berkshire 股票的 beta——也就是他们说的那个 beta——一直都相当低。

I mean, if you looked at a 5-year option on Berkshire stock at various times, Berkshire stock's had a fairly low beta, as they call it.

beta 是一个衡量指标——学术界的人总喜欢给一些本来挺简单的东西起个 Greek 名字，这样他们就好像形成了某种祭司阶层，你知道吧。

Beta is a measure that— people in academia always like to give Greek names to things that are fairly simple, and so that they have sort of a priesthood, you know.

所以，你知道，这就有点像神父用 Latin 说话之类的。

So, you know, it's like priests talking in Latin or something.

我的意思是，这，这，这会让普通人有点发怵。

I mean, it, it, it kind of cows the laity.

不过，beta 其实就是对过去波动率的一种衡量。

But they— beta is a measure of past volatility.

Berkshire 的波动率一直很低，但这并不意味着，对任何真正理解这家公司业务的人来说，它的期权价值就会低于那些 beta 更高的股票。

Berkshire's had a low volatility, but that didn't mean that the option value of it to anybody that really understood the business was lower than a stock with a higher beta.

而且我想 Charlie——Charlie 去年说过，尤其是对长期期权来说，Black-Scholes 有时候会给出一些很荒唐的结果。

And I think Charlie— what Charlie said last year is that for longer-term options in particular, Black-Scholes can give some silly results.

我是说，它会把东西定错价；但它是一个机械化的系统，而证券市场里任何机械化系统，时不时都会把东西定错价。

I mean, it misprices things, but it's a mechanical system, and any mechanical system in securities markets is going to misprice things from time to time.

所以——就像我去年提到的，我们做过一笔很大的交易，本质上是对手方用 Black-Scholes、再加上市场价格来定价，然后接了我们的对手盘，我们去年在这笔交易上赚了一亿两千万美元。

And that's— we made one, as I mentioned last year, we made one large commitment that basically had somebody on the other side of it using Black-Scholes and using market prices, took the other side of it, and we made $120 million last year.

而且我们很喜欢别人用这种机械公式来给东西定价，因为他们可能一百次里有九十九次是对的，但那九十九次我们不需要去玩。

And we love the idea of other people using mechanistic formulas to price things because they may be right 99 times out of 100, but we don't have to play those 99 times.

我们只会在那种我们看法不一样的时候出手一次。

We just play the one time when we have a differing view.

Charlie，你想评论一下——。

Charlie, you want to comment on—.

M34:10

对，Black-Scholes 在我看来，就是一种对价值一无所知的估值体系。

Yeah, Black-Scholes is what I would call a know-nothing value system.

如果你对价值和价格的关系完全一无所知，换句话说，如果价格本身已经在告诉你所有能知道的东西，那么 Black-Scholes 用在非常短期的情况下，倒还算是个挺不错的猜测。比如说，某只股票一个九十天期权大概值多少钱。

If you don't know anything at all about value compared with price, in other words, if price is teaching you all that can be known, then Black-Scholes on a very short-term basis is a pretty good guess, you know, for what a 90-day option may be worth in some stock or another.

但你一旦进入长期期权，就没那么强的这种“一无所知”因素了，这时候还用 Black-Scholes 就很疯狂。

The minute you get into longer-term options where you don't have the know-nothing factor so extreme, it's crazy to use Black-Scholes.

人们用它，只是因为他们想要某种机械化的系统。

People use it just because they want some kind of a mechanical system.

M24:54

对。

Yeah.

M34:54

不过拿 Costco 来说吧，在相当短的一段时间里，我们发了执行价三十美元的股票期权，也发了执行价六十美元的股票期权。

But at Costco, for instance, within a fairly short period, we issued stock options at $30, and we also issued stock options at $60.

而 Black-Scholes 给执行价六十美元的那批期权算出来的价值，居然远高于执行价三十美元的那批期权。

And Black-Scholes valued the options we issued at $60 as a strike price way higher than the options we issued at $30.

这简直太荒唐了。

Well, this is insane.

M25:20

嗯，我们是挺喜欢一定程度的荒唐。

Well, we like a certain amount of insanity.

M35:23

对，不过这对 Warren 挺有好处，因为他多赚了一亿两千万美元。

Yeah, well, it's good for Warren, who picked up this extra $120 million.

所以呢，他比我更喜欢这种荒唐。

But so he's fonder of this kind of insanity than I am.

M25:35

不，我们愿意付你真金白银，只要你把这么一个人带到我们 Kiewit Plaza 的办公室来：这个人想用 Black-Scholes model，而且愿意给一百个、期限三年的期权报价，还愿意——用 Black-Scholes model 来报，然后让我们从里面挑。

No, we will pay you real money if you will deliver to our offices at Kiewit Plaza somebody who wants to use the Black-Scholes model and is willing to price 100 options for 3 years, willing to— using the Black-Scholes model and letting us pick and choose among those.

因为就像 Charlie 说的，这就是个一无所知的玩意儿，而我们也是一无所知的人。

Because as Charlie says, it's a know-nothing affair, and we are know-nothing guys.

在很多很多事情上都是这样。

In respect to an awful lot of things.

但偶尔，我们会碰到一些事情，让我们觉得自己是懂一点的。

But every now and then, we find something where we think we know something.

而任何使用机械公式的人，在那种情况下都会惹上麻烦。

And anybody that's using a mechanistic formula is going to get in trouble in that situation.

不过，期权是有价值的。

But options have value.

我的意思是，去年我们卖那四亿美元债券的时候，从某种意义上说，我们其实就是发行了期权。

I mean, we issued options, in a sense, last year when we sold those— the $400 million of bonds.

我们知道自己让出了什么。

And we know what we're giving up.

当我们卖出那些债券的时候。

When we sell those bonds.

我的意思是，我们也许拿到的是某种负票息，但那是因为我们放弃了期权价值。

I mean, we may have gotten what, a negative coupon of sorts, but that's because we gave up option value.

所以它其实根本不是什么真正的负成本工具，因为期权是有价值的。

And then it wasn't, it isn't truly a negative cost instrument at all because options have value.

我们来看第四个问题。

Let's go to number 4.