M10:00
你就是不知道接下来会发生什么。
You just don't know what's going to happen.
你知道，至少在我看来，美国的顺风还远远没有耗尽。
You know, at least in my view, you know that America's tailwind is not exhausted.
如果你长期持有 equities，结果会相当不错。
You're going to get a fine result if you own equities over a long period of time.
要说 equities 的表现不会比三十年期 Treasury bond 更好——而它现在的收益率才百分之一点二五——这种说法我是不信的。
The idea that equities will not produce better results than the 30-year Treasury bond, which yields 1.25% now.
那是要纳税的收入。
It's taxable income.
呃，Federal Reserve 的目标，是把通胀维持在每年百分之二。
Uh, it's the aim of the Federal Reserve to have 2% a year inflation.
呃，呃，equities 的表现会跑赢那种 bond。
Uh, uh, equities are going to outperform that bond.
它们也会跑赢 Treasury bills。
They're going to outperform Treasury bills.
它们还会——它们会跑赢你塞在床垫底下的那些钱。
They're out— they're going to outperform that money you've stuck under your mattress.
我的意思是，这——这——它们是非常非常稳健的投资，前提是你把它们当成投资，而不是当成赌博工具，或者觉得，呃，你可以很安全地用 margin 去买之类的。
I mean, there's— there's— they are an enormously sound investment, as long as they're an investment and they're not a gambling device or something that you think, uh, you can safely, you know, buy on margin or whatever it may be.
呃，很有意思的一点是，stocks 提供了——而且，我们一直都是把 stocks 看成一家企业的一部分。
Uh, it's interesting that stocks offer— which, and stocks are a— we always look at stocks as just being a part of a business.
我的意思是，stocks 就是一家企业里的一小部分。
I mean, stocks are a small part of a business.
如果在一七八九年，你攒下了一小笔钱——那时候存钱可不容易——你也许会用这笔积蓄去买一小块、一小块土地。
If in 1789 you'd saved a small amount of money, and it wasn't easy to save, you might have bought with those savings, you might have bought a tiny, tiny plot of property.
也许你会买一套房子租给别人，但是，呃，你其实并没有机会和另外十个人一起入股那些正在发展中的 businesses。
Maybe you bought a house that could be rented to somebody, but, uh, you didn't really have the chance to buy in with 10 different people who were developing businesses.
而且那些人，大概也会把自己的钱投进去，他们背后还会有美国这股顺风。
And who were putting, presumably putting their own money in, and that would have the American tailwind behind them.
而这十个里面，会有一个相当高的比例以某种方式取得成功，并且带来不错的回报。
And, and of the 10, a reasonably high percentage would succeed in a way and earn decent returns.
但是，但是那就是你当时对储蓄可能有的那些选择。
But, but those are the choices you might have had to do with savings.
呃，后来他们一开始提供的是 bonds，同样地，你拿到的回报也是有限的，不过在那个年代，回报可能有百分之五、百分之六左右。
Uh, and they started offering bonds originally, and there again you got a limited return, but the return may have been in those days, may have been 5 or 6% or something of the sort.
但是你没法买到没有风险的 bonds。
But you can't, you can't buy risk-free bonds.
我的意思是，对我来说，衡量标准一直都是 U.S. Treasury。
I mean, the yardstick for me is always the, the U.S. Treasury.
而且，而且当有人给你的回报明显高于 U.S. Treasury 的时候，通常都是有原因的。
And, and when somebody offers you quite a bit more than the U.S. Treasury, there's usually a reason.
那就是风险更高。
There's, there's more risk.