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芒格预测人工智能对人类会产生怎样的影响

38 段 · 3 位说话人 · 原片 3:23
M1
M10:00

嗨,Warren,Charlie。

Hi, Warren and Charlie.

感谢你们所做的一切。

Thank you for everything.

我是来自 Ginkgo Global 的 David,我们是一家在上海的投资管理机构。

I'm David from Ginkgo Global, an investment manager in Shanghai.

我来这里已经八年了。

I've been here for 8 years.

如果把投资当成奥运会里的一个项目,你们就是我们的冠军队。

If investment is a sport in the Olympics, you are our champion team.

所以我的问题是,面对快速发展的 machine intelligence,你们怎么看这种新的竞争在未来会怎么影响资本配置的效率?

So my question is, facing the fast-growing machine intelligence, how do you see the new competition impact the capital allocation productivity in the future?

对 Charlie 来说,从整体经济利益的角度看,资本配置的第一原则是什么?

For Charlie, what is the first principle of capital allocation from general economic interest points of view?

谢谢。

Thank you.
M2
M20:38

嗯,这是两个问题。

Well, two questions.

machine intelligence。

Machine intelligence.

恐怕我唯一拥有的 intelligence,是某种不是机器的东西提供给我的,而且我觉得我也不会去学 machine intelligence。

I'm afraid the only intelligence I have is being provided by something that's not a machine, and I don't think I'm going to learn machine intelligence.

如果你问我,怎么靠我自己的 intelligence 去赢围棋这个游戏,我做不到。而且我觉得我年纪太大了,不适合再去学 computer science。

If you ask me how to beat the game of Go with my own intelligence, I couldn't do it, and I think it's too old for me to learn computer science.

总的来说,我觉得 machine intelligence 是有效果的。

Generally, I think that machine intelligence has worked.

毕竟,现在机器已经能打败最厉害的人类围棋选手了。

After all, a machine now can beat the best human player at Go.

但我觉得,这个领域里的炒作成分,比它最终大概率能实现的成果要多。

But I think there's more hype in that field than there is probable achievement.

所以我不认为 machine intelligence 会把这个世界改变得那么大。

So I don't think the world is going to be changed that much by machine intelligence.

会有一些改变,但不会特别巨大。

Some, but not hugely.

那另一个问题是什么来着?

And what was the other question?

嗯,一个是 machine intelligence。

Well, one was machine intelligence.
M3
M31:41

我觉得他其实是在问资本配置。

I think he was getting at capital allocation.

哦,对。

Oh yeah.
M2
M21:44

那是个特别宽泛的问题。

That's such a general question.

一般来说,我们始终都在努力找最好的东西,找值得买的东西。

Generally speaking, we're always trying to get the best, to get something that's worth buying.

如果你待在学术界,人脑其实会排斥这一点,因为那样的话,你在学期一开始只要先下一个结论性的判断,后面剩下的时间

And the human mind rejects that if you're in academia because you could come in and make one declaratory sentence at the opening of the semester and you wouldn't have anything to do for the rest

你就什么都不用做了。

of your time.

所以人们总想找某种公式。

So people want to find some formula.

这就是我说的 physics envy。

It's what I call physics envy.

这些人希望世界能像 physics 一样运行,但除了 physics 本身之外,世界并不是那样的,而这种虚假的精确性,除了给你惹麻烦,没别的用。

These people want the world to be like physics, but the world isn't like physics outside of physics, and that false precision just does nothing but get you in trouble.

所以我要说的是,你得掌握那些普遍性的基本观念,而且你得下功夫不断提升自己的判断力。

So I would say you've got to master the general ideas, and you've got to work to improve your judgment.

慢慢来,就像我们其他人一路走过来的那样。

Slowly, the way all the rest of us had.

而且我觉得,对大多数个人来说,想靠机器智能获得个人收益,恐怕没什么希望。

And I don't think most individuals have much hope of individual gain from machine intelligence.
M3
M32:48

对,我不这么看。

No, I don't.

机器下赢围棋之类的,或者甚至赢国际象棋,不管是什么,我当然会觉得挺厉害。

I'm impressed when machines beat Go or something of the sort, or even win at chess or whatever it may be.

但说到资本配置或者投资,我真不觉得它们能带来多少价值。

I don't really think they bring much to the table in terms of capital allocation or investing.

当然,也可能是我完全漏掉了什么,你知道,也许我就是没看见外面到底有什么。

And then I may be missing something entirely, you know, maybe I'm just blind to what's out there.
M2
M23:14

你漏掉了很多特别赚钱、靠收手续费就能赚到的钱的废话。

You're missing a lot of very remunerative fee-earning twaddle.
M3
M33:18

对,好吧,好吧,那这事就算说完了。

Yeah, well, well, that takes care of that.

那我们继续看第八个问题。

So we'll go on to question 8.