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巴菲特与芒格对中国经济前景的看法

57 段 · 3 位说话人 · 原片 5:35
M1
M10:00

谢谢你让我提这个问题。

Thank you for taking my question.

我叫 Brandon Chen。

My name is Brandon Chen.

我来自台湾台北。

I'm from Taipei, Taiwan.

我的问题是,中国正在经历一系列结构性的变化。

My question is, China is undergoing a number of structural changes.

你怎么看——当你给中国经济把脉的时候,你看到了什么?你会给出什么建议?

What do you— when you take the pulse of the Chinese economy, what do you read and what advice would you give?

谢谢。

Thank you.
M2
M20:19

Charlie 是中国问题专家。

Charlie's the China expert.

我觉得,从一段时间来看,中国会发展得非常好。

I think China is going to do very fine over a period of time.
M3
M30:27

我非常看好中国正在发生的这些事情。

A big fan of what's happening in China.

事实上,我刚刚让人准备了一尊 Lee Kuan Yew 的半身像,他是最近去世的 Singapore 前总理——前前总理,因为我觉得他对整顿 Singapore,后来又对整顿中国,都做出了非常大的贡献。

And as a matter of fact, I've just ordered, prepared a bust of Lee Kuan Yew, the recently deceased prime minister of— ex-prime minister of Singapore, because I think he's contributed so much to fixing first Singapore and then China.

Lee Kuan Yew 在 Singapore 做过的一件事,就是打击腐败,甚至包括撤掉他一些亲近朋友的职务。

And one of the things Lee Kuan Yew did in Singapore was to stop the corruption, including cashiering some of his close friends.

中国现在也在做同样的事情。

And China's doing the same thing.

我认为,这是我很长很长时间以来见过的,一个大国做过的最聪明的一件事。

And I consider it the smartest damn thing I've seen a big country do in a long, long time.

我觉得,如果掌权的政治领袖本身就是 kleptocrats,那就很难树立正确的榜样。

And I think that it's hard to set the proper example if the leading political rulers are kleptocrats.

你不会希望自己是被一帮盗贼统治的。

You don't want to be run by a den of thieves.

你想要的是有责任感的人。

You want responsible people.

Lee Kuan Yew 做的事情之一,就是给公务员高得多的待遇,同时招募非常优秀的人才。

And what Lee Kuan Yew did is he paid the civil servants way better and recruited very good people.

他就是建立起了一个更好的制度。

And he just created a better system.

当然,中国在很大程度上是在借鉴他,他们现在做的事情非常了不起。

And of course, China is widely copying him, and it's a wonderful thing they're doing.

所以,我非常看好中国正在发生的这些事。

So I'm very high on what's going on in China.

而且我觉得,这件事很有可能会成功。

And I think it's very likely to work.

他们实际上还枪毙了几个人。

They've actually shot a few people.

这真的很能引起大家的重视。

That really gets people's attention.
M2
M22:01

现在我们开始听到一些实际建议了。

Now we're starting to get some practical advice here.

你知道,中国在过去四十年左右发生的事情,

What has happened in China, you know, over the last 40 or so years.

我的意思是,这在我看来,简直就是完完全全的奇迹。

I mean, it just strikes me as just totally miraculous.

我觉得——我以前根本不会相信,一个国家能在这么短的时间里走这么远,尤其是这么大一个国家,能这么快走到这一步。

I don't think— I would not have believed that a country could move so far so fast, a country that size particularly, so far so fast.

而这——

And it's—.
M3
M32:27

在世界历史上,从来没有哪个这么大的国家,能取得这么大的进步。

It never happened before in the history of the world that a country so big had come so far.

我小时候,中国百分之八十的人口都不识字,而且深陷于勉强糊口的贫困和农业生活之中。

When I was a little boy, 80% of the population of China was illiterate, and mired in subsistence poverty and agriculture.

他们经历过可怕的战争,你看看他们现在。

And they've been through horrible wars, and look at them.

这是地球历史上最了不起的成就之一。

It's one of the most remarkable achievements in the history of the earth.

而且有少数几个人为这件事做出了极其重大的贡献,其中就包括这位在 Singapore 的中国政治人物。

And a few people made an extreme contribution to it, including this Chinese politician in Singapore.

我很愿意把很大一部分功劳归给 Communist Party,因为他们借鉴了 Lee Kuan Yew。

And I give the Communist Party a lot of credit for copying Lee Kuan Yew.

Berkshire 做的也就是这样,向对的人学习。

That's all Berkshire does is copy the right people.
M2
M23:14

对,对。

Yeah, yeah.

一七九零年的时候,美国有四百万人口。

In 1790, the United States had 4 million people.

中国有两亿九千万人口。

China had 290 million people.

他们和我们一样聪明。

They were just as smart as we were.

他们也一样勤奋。

They worked as hard.

气候差不多,土壤也差不多。

Similar climate, similar soil.

然后在接近两百年的时间里,你知道,美国就靠着这四百万人,发展到了接近全球 GDP 的百分之二十五,而中国实际上并没有取得什么进展。

And for 200, close to 200 years, you know, the United States went with those 4 million people to close to 25% of the world's GDP, and China really didn't go anyplace.

可后来还是同样这些人,在四十年的时间里——他们现在并不比四十年前更努力,也并不比四十年前更聪明,至少就基础智力来说是这样——但你看看他们取得了多大的成就。

And then those same people in 40 years, and they're not working harder now than they were 40 years ago, they're not smarter now than they were 40 years ago in terms of basic intelligence, and just look at what's been accomplished.

我的意思是,这确实说明了,一旦你找到一个能释放人类潜力的制度,人的潜能会有多大。

I mean, it does show you the human potential when you find a system that unleashes it.

我们在两百年前找到了一个能释放人类潜力的制度,而他们是在四五十年前找到了这样的制度。

And we found a system that unleashed human potential a couple hundred years ago, and they found a system that unleashed human potential 40 or 50 years ago.

而且,你知道,当你看到这样的例子时,它必然会对未来会发生什么产生非常强烈的影响。

And, you know, when you see that example, you know, it has to have a powerful effect on what happens in the future.

而且,呃,真是让人惊叹,几百年来这些人的人生基本上都没有太大起色,然后一下子就爆发了。

And, uh, it's just amazing that you could have people go nowhere basically in their lives for centuries, and then just it explodes.

看到这一切,真的让我非常震撼。

And it just blows me away to see it.

你会发现,还是同样的人,但他们找到了释放自己潜力的方法。

And you make it—it's the same human beings, but they've found a way to unlock their potential.

我为他们感到高兴,也向他们表示祝贺。

And I congratulate them for it.

正如 Charlie 刚才说的,在可以预见的未来,中国和美国都会是超级大国。

And as Charlie said earlier, China and the United States are going to be the superpowers for as far as the eye can see.

而且在我看来,中国找到了释放自身潜力的方法,这对我们也确实是件好事。

And it is really good for us, in my view, that the Chinese have found the way to unlock their potential.

我认为,对于两个拥有核武器的国家来说,在这样的世界里,最重要的是要想办法看到彼此的优点,而不是只盯着缺点。

And I think it's imperative for two countries with nuclear weapons that in this kind of world that they figure out ways to see the virtues in each other rather than the flaws.

我们和中国之间肯定会有很多分歧,他们和我们之间也一样,但我们应该记住,总的来说,如果对方发展得好,我们双方都会过得更好。

We'll have plenty of disagreements with the Chinese, and they will with us, but we ought to remember that on balance, we're both better off if the other one's doing well.

这只是我个人的看法。

That's just my own view.
M3
M35:31

好。

Okay.
M2
M25:33

请看三号提问点。

Station 3, please.