M20:20
谢谢。
Thank you.
我们会努力——而且我们非常认真地对待这件事——我们会尽量把那份报告里，所有在角色对调时我们自己想知道的东西，都放进去。
We try to— and, and we take it very seriously— we try to put everything in that report that we would want to know if the positions were reversed.
如果我是把自己全部净资产都放在 Berkshire 里，然后我在一座荒岛上待了一年，现在由管理者来向我汇报这个企业的情况，那我们就会尽量提供同样的信息，也就是我会希望从他那里听到的信息；而且我们会尽量用你能看懂的方式把它呈现给你。
If I were sitting with all of my net worth in Berkshire and I'd been on a desert island for a year and the manager was reporting to me about the business, we try to have that same information that I would want from him, and we try to present it to you in a way that's understandable.
而且，我们不会把那些我们觉得重要的事情给省略掉。
And we don't leave out things that we, uh, we think are important.
呃，我们也尽量不去放——我的意思是，这份报告大概有七十六页，我想，今年甚至可能有八十页。
Uh, we try not to put— I mean, there's a— it runs about 76, I think, or maybe even 80 pages this year.
我的意思是，信息多到一定程度，是会把人淹没的，而那些信息其实并没有多大区别。
I mean, there's— you can drown people in information that, that really doesn't make much difference.
不过我们一直在尽量用一种更有条理的方式来组织它，比如按不同的业务类别来讲。
But we've tried to organize it in a way by talking about these different groups of businesses.
我们也会尽量解释，我们是怎么思考这些问题的，比如我们创造了多少经营收益，还有我们持有哪些投资。
We try to explain how we think about it in terms of things like the amount of operating earnings we've generated and the investments we have.
它其实就像是一份我要汇报给 Charlie 的报告，或者如果我们其中一个人不参与业务、另一个人在经营，那就是 Charlie 汇报给我的报告。
It's really as if it's a report that I was making to Charlie, or Charlie would be making to me if one of us were inactive in the business and the other was running it.
所以我觉得——我的意思是，读完它可能要花上几个小时——但如果你把自己当成 Berkshire 的一个认真负责的所有者，那真的值得把整份报告都读完，想想里面讲了什么，这些人接下来要拿这些资源做什么，你知道，他们想实现什么，他们成功实现这些目标的概率有多大；如果他们在配置额外资本这件事上做得不算太成功，那它值多少钱；如果他们在配置这些多余资本和新增资本方面做得成功，那又可能会是什么情况。
And so I think— I mean, it may take a few hours to do it, but I think if you regard yourself as a serious owner of Berkshire, it's really worth reading the whole report, thinking about what is there, what are these guys going to do with it, you know, what are they trying to attempt, what are the odds they're going to be successful in that attempt, what are they, you know, what is it worth if they don't succeed very well in deploying additional capital, uh, what might be the case if they were successful in, in, in deploying, uh, excess capital and incremental capital.
但我可以告诉你，很显然，我们觉得这件事非常重要。
But I can tell you that obviously we think it's very important.
真正重要的是，我们拥有什么样的企业，是什么样的经理人在经营这些企业，以及这些企业随着时间推移大概率能赚多少钱。
What counts is the kind of businesses we have, the kind of managers we have running those businesses, what those businesses are likely to earn over time.
关于这一点，我们也表达过一些看法。
And we've expressed ourselves a little on that.
然后，还有什么样的资源可供我们继续把这组企业不断扩充下去？
And then what are the resources that are available to keep adding to that collection of businesses?
我们想增加进来的，又会是什么样的企业？
What are the kind of businesses we are looking to add?
而且，呃，我觉得，你知道，我觉得，我觉得你会在里面找到——找到你评估 Berkshire 所需要的信息。
And, uh, I think, you know, I, I think, I, I think you'll find the information that's— that you need to evaluate Berkshire.
而且这不是那种，你知道，不是要精确到小数点后四位。
And it's not a, you know, you don't carry it out to 4 decimal places.
Charlie 和我，如果现在非要我们马上在一张纸上写下一个非常精确的数字，我们是不会那么做的，因为我们知道那是不可能的。
Charlie and I, if we had to stick a number down on a piece of paper right now as to some pinpoint number, we wouldn't do it because we know that's impossible.
但如果非要写一个数字出来，你知道，我们两个人写出来的数字也会不一样。
But if we had to stick a number down, you know, it'd be a different number between the two of us.
甚至可能我今天写的数字，跟我明天写的数字也会不一样。
It'd be a different number if I did it today from tomorrow, probably.
但是大致区间会差不多，而且我们看的东西会是一样的。
But we'd be in the same ballpark and we'd be looking at the same things.
而我们会去看的那些东西，我们都在那份报告里向你披露了。
And the things we would be looking at, we report to you in that report.
我会关注——Berkshire 十年后值多少钱，这个问题取决于到那时为止我们培养出来的盈利能力，也就是年度收益，这些收益的质量，这些企业从那个时点往后发展的可能性，以及我们手里的流动资产。
I would focus— question of what Berkshire's going to be worth 10 years from now will depend on the earnings that we have developed, annual earnings that we've developed by that time, the quality of those earnings, the possibilities going forward from that point of those businesses, and the liquid assets we have.
这些年来，我们一直在努力提升这两方面的要素，而且我们还会继续努力。
And we've worked on increasing both of those, uh, elements over the years, and we'll keep working on it.
只不过，从现在这个规模往后走，按百分比来算要取得增长，比过去难得多了。
And it's a lot tougher in terms of percentage gains from this point forward than it was in the past.
我们绝不可能把过去发生的那些成绩原样再复制一遍。
There's no way in the world that we can replicate what's happened in the past.
就是不会再发生了。
It just won't happen.
问题在于，我们能不能把这件事做得还算靠谱。
The question is whether we can do a reasonable job or not.
Charlie？
Charlie?