M10:00
那到底发生了什么呢？
So what has happened?
呃，我们来看下一张幻灯片，看看从那以后这个国家的财富情况。
Uh, let's move on to the next slide, to the wealth of the country since then.
这里有一些数字，基本上会定期公布出来。
And here we have some figures that come out pretty regularly.
对，确实是定期公布的，就是 Federal Reserve 会估算美国民众的家庭净资产。
Well, they do come out regularly, where the Federal Reserve, uh, estimates the net household worth of people in the United States.
哦。
Oh.
是美国所有家庭的。
All the households in the United States.
你可以去查这些数据，然后你会看到，比如说有三十万亿美元的股票，还有，呃，我想也包括独栋住宅之类的。
And you can look these up and you'll, you'll see that, you know, there's $30 trillion of stocks and, and, uh, I think maybe single-family homes, whatever.
大概有八千两百万套自住型独栋住宅，另外可能还有四千五百万套出租公寓，等等。
There's 82 million or so owner-occupied single families and maybe 45 million rental apartments and so on.
所以把这些都加起来，呃，Federal Reserve 告诉我们——我也建议你们去看看这些数据，挺有意思的——就是现在的美国，在二百三十一年之后，已经有了一百万亿美元。
So you start adding all these up and, uh, the Federal Reserve tells us, and I invite you to look at the, the data, it's kind of interesting, that we now in the United States, 231 years later, we have $100 trillion.
我们的家庭财富已经超过一百万亿美元了，尽管自从上一份季度报告以来，股市是有一点下跌。
We have more than $100 trillion of household wealth, even though the stock market's gone down somewhat, uh, since the last quarterly report.
呃，所以你会说，嗯，你知道的，我们有很多通货膨胀之类的问题。
Uh, so you say, well, uh, you know, we've got a lot of inflation, everything.
呃，实际上，美国在建国以来大概前半段时间里，通货膨胀其实并没有那么严重。
Uh, we actually, in the United States, for the first half of our existence roughly, we didn't really have that much inflation.
呃，我们有过通胀时期，也有过通缩时期，但总体物价水平并没有发生那么戏剧性的变化。
Uh, we had inflationary periods and deflationary periods, but the general price level did not change that dramatically.
不过这次计算里，我还是假设累计通胀是二十比一。
But I will assume again for this calculation that, uh, there's been 20-for-1 inflation.
而对很多商品来说，实际远远低于这个数。
It's, it's way less than that in many commodities.
但是——而且这很难衡量，因为要去比较不同产品带来的对应收益、还有成本之类的，都不容易。
But, but it's— and it's very hard to measure and talk about equivalent, uh, benefits from different kinds of products and so on and costs.
不过我觉得，说美国按实际购买力来算，财富的确增加了，是合理的。
But I, I think it's reasonable to say that the United States in real terms, uh, has increased in wealth.
这个增幅大概是在五千比一的量级，这真的——非常惊人。
That's something in the area of 5,000 for 1, which is really— it's mind-blowing.
按实际价值算是五千比一，而这个国家起点只有百分之零点五的人口——外加一大片原始土地。
5,000 for 1 in real terms in a country that had half a percent of the— and a bunch of raw land.
呃，但它有一种愿景，呃，能在二百三十一年里做到这一点，呃，毫无疑问，这已经超出了以前任何人能想象的程度。
Uh, but a vision, uh, that, uh, to accomplish that in 231 years, uh, uh, there's just no denying that, that, that, that's beyond what anybody could have dreamt earlier.
但这并不是——这一点很重要，因为我们现在也遇到了一些坎坷——这并不是在完全没有非常非常严重波折的情况下做到的。
But it was not done— and this is important because we've now hit a bump in the road— it was not done without some very, very serious bumps in the road.
这二百三十一年并不是
It was not 231 years
一路平稳前进的。
of steady progress.
事实上，呃，在这个国家诞生之后，到了那个时候，我们已经走过了多少年？七十二年？
As a matter of fact, uh, we had been in, um, the, uh, in this birth of this country, we'd been, what, into it 72 years?
如果我们看下一张幻灯片，呃——七十二年。
And if we go to the next slide, uh— 72 years.
到了一八六一年，我们已经大约有三千一百万人口了。
In 1861, we now had about 31 million people.
一八六零年的人口普查显示，这个国家大概有三千一百万人，其中有四百万人是奴隶。
With the 1860 census, it showed around 31 million people or thereabouts, uh, in the country, and 4 million of them were slaves.
而且，对于一七八九年那些妥协所遗留下来的问题，我们其实从来都没有真正解决。
And we had never really resolved the very much unfinished business of what was involved in, in compromises in 1789.
这个我们后面还会再讲。
And we'll have more to say about that later.
但是，呃，我们经历了一件并没有太多国家经历过的事情。
But, uh, we had something that, that, uh, not too many countries experienced.
如果你在 1789 年告诉人们，17——也就是 72 年后，你们会经历一次分裂，导致美国总统在 Gettysburg 说出那句话，呃，去检验那个国家，或者任何一个如此孕育、如此奉献的国家，是否能够长久延续下去。
And if you told people in 1789 that in 17— in 72 years you were going to have a division that caused the President of the United States at Gettysburg to, to say that, uh, testing whether that nation, or any nation so conceived and so dedicated, can long endure.
想象一下，美国总统公开地在想，他所主持的这个国家，是否还能长久延续下去。
Imagine the President of the United States wondering aloud whether the country that he was presiding over could long endure.
在 Gettysburg，才只过了 72 年，或者 74 年。
Only 72 years or 74 years at Gettysburg.