2012年股东大会 · 2012年的巴菲特：我不会投资苹果公司。。 — 文稿

M10:00

这个问题来自 GoodHaven Fund 的 Larry Pitkowsky。

This question comes from Larry Pitkowsky from the GoodHaven Fund.

另外，还有一位股东也问了一个类似的问题，我尽量把它们合在一起了。

Also, another shareholder also asked a similar question that I've tried to combine.

既然你们现在投资了 IBM，那在科技行业里，还有没有别的已经站稳脚跟的领导者，用你们的一个说法，就是像 Coke 和 Gillette 那样，几乎是“不可避免”的公司？

Given that you're now in IBM, are there any other entrenched leaders in technology that are, to use one of your terms, inevitable, in the same way that Coke and Gillette were?

比如说，Google 是不是“不可避免”的？

For example, is Google inevitable?

它是不是有点像你们在七十年代持有过的那些广告公司？也就是说，像是所有数字化支出上的一个“收费桥梁”？

Is it reminiscent of the advertising agencies you owned in the 1970s, i.e., a toll bridge on all digital spending?

而且它看起来非常可能会随着时间持续增长。

That's highly likely to keep growing over time.

比如说，在 Google 身上，你觉得真正的风险一两个主要是什么？

What are the one or two things about Google, for example, that you think are real risks?

那 Apple 呢？

And what about Apple?

M20:37

嗯，那显然都是非同一般的公司。

Well, those are extraordinary companies, obviously.

而且它们两个——它们两个都是规模巨大的公司。

And both—they're both huge companies.

它们赚很多钱。

They make lots of money.

它们的资本回报率高得惊人。

They earn fantastic returns on capital.

在它们有优势的领域里，看起来都非常难被撼动。

They look very tough to dislodge where they have their strengths.

如果十年后它们值的钱多得多，我一点也不会意外，但我不想买其中任何一家。

I would not be at all surprised to see them be worth a lot more money 10 years from now, but I wouldn't want to buy either one of them.

我还达不到那种会让我出手买它们的确信程度，但我也绝对不会去做空它们。

I do not get to the level of conviction that would cause me to buy them, but I sure as hell wouldn't short them either.

Charlie？

Charlie?

M31:19

嗯，我想我们可以很公允地说，永远会有别人比我们更懂这两家公司。

Well, I think we can fairly say that other people will always understand those two companies better than we do.

我们不但没有优势，反而是处在劣势的一边，而我们不找这种机会。

We have the reverse of an edge, and we're not looking for that.

M21:36

他现在要说了，这不也同样适用于 IBM 吗？

Now he's going to say, isn't the same thing true in IBM?

M31:39

嗯，我觉得不是。

Well, I don't think it is.

我觉得 IBM 更容易理解。

I think IBM is easier to understand.

M21:44

对，至少对我们来说，在 IBM 上犯大错的可能性，大概比在 Google 或 Apple 上犯大错要小一些。

Yeah, the chances of being way wrong in IBM are probably less, at least for us, than being way wrong with Google or Apple.

但这并不意味着后面那两家公司——也就是后两者——不会比 IBM 做得好得多。

But that doesn't mean that those—the latter two companies—aren't going to do, say, far better than IBM.

我的意思是，呃，十年前 Apple 后来会发生什么，我们可预测不到。

I mean, uh, but we wouldn't have—we wouldn't have predicted what would happen with Apple 10 years ago.

而且对我来说，要预测未来十年会发生什么也非常难。

And it's very hard for me to predict what will happen in the next 10 years.

当然，它们已经做出了这些非常了不起的产品。

There's certainly—they've come up with these brilliant products.

也还有其他人在努力做出非常了不起的产品。

There are other people trying to come up with brilliant products.

而我就是不知道该怎么评估那些人在外面工作的人，不管是在大公司里，还是在车库里，他们都在试着想出某种东西，像它们近些年那样改变世界。

And I just don't know how to evaluate the people that are out there working either in big companies or in garages that are trying to think of something that will change the world the way they have changed it in recent years.

M32:38

那我们对 computer science 又懂多少呢？

And what do we know about computer science?

M22:44

没有回应。

There's no reply.

Gary。

Gary.