M20:30
最好的办法,是你自己要有很强的赚钱能力。
The best thing is to have a lot of earning power of your own.
如果你是城里最好的脑外科医生,或者,或者哪怕是城里最好的律师,呃,那不管发生什么,你在收入上的购买力都能保得住。你知道,不管以后人们是拿贝壳当货币,还是别的什么。
If you're the best brain surgeon in town, or, or even the best lawyer in town, uh, you will retain purchasing power in terms of your income no matter what happens, you know, whether people are using seashells for money or, or whatever as time goes by.
但是在投资世界里,这就更难了。
But in the investment world, it's tougher.
不过 Charlie 和我认为,最好的答案是持有优秀的企业,这些企业能够按照通胀来提价,而且不需要为了应对更高的销售额美元规模而投入巨额资本。
But Charlie and I think the best answer is to own fine businesses that will be able to price in inflationary terms and will not have huge capital investment that is required to handle the larger dollar volume of sales.
几年前,我在我们的年报里用过 See's Candies 这个例子,来说明这样一种企业:它大体上能够应对通胀世界,而且不管货币发生什么变化,都能维持投资价值。
Some years ago, I used See's Candies in our—in the annual report as an example of the kind of business that more or less can handle an inflationary world and, and, and maintain investment value no matter what happens to the currency.
遗憾的是,大多数企业在通胀期间,按实际购买力来算,结果都不会太好。
Unfortunately, most businesses do—will not come out well in real terms during inflation.
它们的盈利随着时间推移可能会增长不少,但它们不得不把越来越多的美元重新投进企业里,才能只是维持在原地。
Their earnings may go up a fair amount over time, but they're compelled to put more and more dollars into the business just to stay in the same place.
而你知道,最糟糕的一类企业,就是那种总是让你不断往桌上加钱,却不给你带来更高盈利的企业。
And you know, the worst kind of a business is one that makes you put more money on the table all the time and doesn't give you greater earnings.
所以你真正想要的,是那种定价能够反映通胀、而资本投入又不会随着通胀大幅增加的企业。
So you really want a business that can have pricing that reflects inflation and does not have very much capital investment that reflects inflation.
但就实际回报而言,通胀是投资者的敌人。
But inflation is the enemy of the investor in terms of real returns.
你也知道,在这个国家,还有其他六七个国家,都有所谓的抗通胀债券。
As you know, there are, uh, in this country as well as half a dozen other countries, there are what they call inflation-protected bonds.
在美国,我们把它们叫做 TIPS,也就是它的收益会调整,呃,或者说本金金额会随着通胀进行调整。
We call them TIPS in the United States, where the income is adjusted, uh, or the principal amount is adjusted to inflation.
呃,对于那些担心通胀升温的人来说,这不失为一种不错的投资。
Uh, and, and that's not a bad investment for people that, that, uh, that have worries about inflation, uh, heating up.
顺便说一句,我觉得我们已经开始看到这个国家的通胀在升温了。
And I think, incidentally, we're starting to see it heat up in this country.