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2004年股东大会 · 芒格:降低欲望,可防通胀

28 段 · 3 位说话人 · 原片 3:42
M1
M10:01

Buffett 先生,Munger 先生,早上好。

Mr. Buffett, Mr. Munger, good morning.

我叫 Akis Psaris,来自希腊 Athens。

My name is Akis Psaris and I am from Athens, Greece.

现在有一种很普遍的看法,认为我们正走向一个通胀环境。

There is a widespread perception that we're heading towards an inflationary environment.

在这样的环境里,对于那些需要保住本金和购买力的投资者,您会给出什么建议?

What advice would you give to investors who need to preserve their capital and their purchasing power in such an environment?
M2
M20:30

最好的办法,是你自己要有很强的赚钱能力。

The best thing is to have a lot of earning power of your own.

如果你是城里最好的脑外科医生,或者,或者哪怕是城里最好的律师,呃,那不管发生什么,你在收入上的购买力都能保得住。你知道,不管以后人们是拿贝壳当货币,还是别的什么。

If you're the best brain surgeon in town, or, or even the best lawyer in town, uh, you will retain purchasing power in terms of your income no matter what happens, you know, whether people are using seashells for money or, or whatever as time goes by.

但是在投资世界里,这就更难了。

But in the investment world, it's tougher.

不过 Charlie 和我认为,最好的答案是持有优秀的企业,这些企业能够按照通胀来提价,而且不需要为了应对更高的销售额美元规模而投入巨额资本。

But Charlie and I think the best answer is to own fine businesses that will be able to price in inflationary terms and will not have huge capital investment that is required to handle the larger dollar volume of sales.

几年前,我在我们的年报里用过 See's Candies 这个例子,来说明这样一种企业:它大体上能够应对通胀世界,而且不管货币发生什么变化,都能维持投资价值。

Some years ago, I used See's Candies in our—in the annual report as an example of the kind of business that more or less can handle an inflationary world and, and, and maintain investment value no matter what happens to the currency.

遗憾的是,大多数企业在通胀期间,按实际购买力来算,结果都不会太好。

Unfortunately, most businesses do—will not come out well in real terms during inflation.

它们的盈利随着时间推移可能会增长不少,但它们不得不把越来越多的美元重新投进企业里,才能只是维持在原地。

Their earnings may go up a fair amount over time, but they're compelled to put more and more dollars into the business just to stay in the same place.

而你知道,最糟糕的一类企业,就是那种总是让你不断往桌上加钱,却不给你带来更高盈利的企业。

And you know, the worst kind of a business is one that makes you put more money on the table all the time and doesn't give you greater earnings.

所以你真正想要的,是那种定价能够反映通胀、而资本投入又不会随着通胀大幅增加的企业。

So you really want a business that can have pricing that reflects inflation and does not have very much capital investment that reflects inflation.

但就实际回报而言,通胀是投资者的敌人。

But inflation is the enemy of the investor in terms of real returns.

你也知道,在这个国家,还有其他六七个国家,都有所谓的抗通胀债券。

As you know, there are, uh, in this country as well as half a dozen other countries, there are what they call inflation-protected bonds.

在美国,我们把它们叫做 TIPS,也就是它的收益会调整,呃,或者说本金金额会随着通胀进行调整。

We call them TIPS in the United States, where the income is adjusted, uh, or the principal amount is adjusted to inflation.

呃,对于那些担心通胀升温的人来说,这不失为一种不错的投资。

Uh, and, and that's not a bad investment for people that, that, uh, that have worries about inflation, uh, heating up.

顺便说一句,我觉得我们已经开始看到这个国家的通胀在升温了。

And I think, incidentally, we're starting to see it heat up in this country.
M1
M12:37

Charlie?

Charlie?
M3
M32:38

对,大多数人在把通胀和税收都考虑进去之后,投资得到的实际回报都会非常少。

Yeah, most people are going to get a very small real return from investment after considering inflation and taxes.

我认为这是这个世界的一条铁律。

I think that's an iron law of the world.

如果在一小段时间里,我们当中有些人能做得比这更好,那我们就该非常感恩了。

And if for a brief period some of us do better than that, we ought to be very thankful.

要防范对通胀的担忧,一个很有力的办法,就是别让自己生活里有太多愚蠢的需求。

One of the great defenses to being worried about inflation is not having a lot of silly needs in your life.

换句话说,如果你没有制造出一大堆人为的需求,让自己淹没在消费品里,那么,嗯,你面对人生起伏变化时,就会有相当强的防御力。

In other words, if you, if you haven't created a lot of artificial demand to drown in consumer goods, why, you have a considerable defense against the vicissitudes of life.
M2
M23:20

Charlie,我们隔壁房间可是在卖消费品呢。

Charlie, we're selling consumer goods in the other room.

这种话在家里说说还行,但在那边说可没什么好处。

It's okay to talk that way at home, but it doesn't do any good there.

我懂那种感觉。

I know the feeling.

我们转到 3 号麦克风。

Let's go to microphone 3.