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AI Agents Are Moving Into the Real World

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一方面,人们还在争论个人助手到底有没有市场。

On the one hand, people continue to debate about whether there is actually a market for personal agents.

一些人认为硅谷的创业者完全搞错了,大家在个人生活中其实并不想要什么优化和效率。

Some think that this is one where Silicon Valley entrepreneurs just have it wrong, that people don't actually want optimization and productivity in their personal lives.

另一些人则认为这种看法太片面了,对于人们真正喜欢的任务,比如某种类型的购物,还有一大堆琐碎烦人的小事,他们其实是特别希望能自动处理掉的。

Others argue that that's a reductive view and that for all of the tasks that people actually enjoy, like certain types of shopping, there are a million other small annoying tasks that they would love to have automated away.

这场争论正在获得越来越多的新证据。

Increasingly, that debate is getting new evidence.

随着Muse和GrokBot这样的助手越来越火,它们正在从屏幕走向现实世界。

And as agents like Muse and GrokBot pick up steam, they are moving off of our screens and into the real world.

《AI每日简报》是一档关于AI领域最重要的新闻和讨论的每日播客和视频节目。

The AI Daily Brief is a daily podcast and video about the most important news and discussions in AI.

好的朋友们,在开始之前先快速说几个通知。

Alright friends, quick announcements before we dive in.
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还有一个快速提醒。

Now, one other quick note.

最近来了很多新朋友,我想更好地了解你们是谁,你们为什么来这里,以及你们想多听什么、少听什么。

There are a lot of new folks around these parts, and I'm trying to get a better handle on who you all are, what you're here for, and what you'd like to hear more and less of.

如果你访问aidailybrief.ai网站,会有一个醒目的链接指向秋季听众调查。

If you go to the aidailybrief.ai website, there is a big link to a fall listener survey.

只需要几分钟就能填完。

It'll only take you a couple of minutes.

这对我在规划这个节目以及可能的其他节目如何发展非常有价值。

And would be incredibly valuable for me figuring out how to evolve this and potential other shows.

所以再次拜托,如果你能花两分钟做一下这个秋季听众调查,我将感激不尽。

So again, I would be endlessly grateful if you would take 2 minutes to do that fall listener survey.

你可以在我们的网页aidailybrief.ai上找到它。

You can find it on our webpage, aidailybrief.ai.

Anthropic宣布了一项他们称为生物学领域重大AI突破的成果。

Anthropic has announced what they're calling a big AI breakthrough in the biology field.

在确认湾区存在一个AI驱动的湿实验室不到一周后,Anthropic表示,Claude发现了一种新型酶系统,其特性与CRISPR相似,且仅由科学家提供了高层次的指导。

Less than a week after confirming the existence of an AI-powered wet lab in the Bay Area, Anthropic has said Claude discovered a novel enzyme system with properties reminiscent of CRISPR, with only high-level direction from our scientists.

CRISPR是一种基于细菌中发现的酶序列的基因编辑技术。

CRISPR is gene editing technology based on an enzyme sequence discovered in bacteria.

它被用来机械地切割DNA并拼接新基因。

It's used to mechanically cut DNA and splice in new genes.

Anthropic的发现与CRISPR类似,都包含一系列重复的基因组。

Anthropic's discovery looks similar to CRISPR in the way it features an array of repeated genomes.

他们承认目前还不知道其功能或重要性水平,但这类酶系统相对罕见,且此前已经解锁了如切割、复制和将基因插入DNA等能力。

They acknowledge that they don't yet know its function or level of significance, but these enzyme systems are relatively rare and have previously unlocked capabilities like cutting, copying, and inserting genes into DNA.

他们声称这一发现动用了1000个Claude代理、21小时和约2.1亿个token,计算成本大约在1万美元左右。

They claim the discovery took 1,000 Claude agents, 21 hours, and around 210 million tokens, so somewhere on the order of $10,000 of compute.

拥有生物物理学博士学位的CEO Dario Amodei在X上宣传了这一结果。

CEO Dario Amodei, who has a PhD in biophysics, promoted the result on X.

他写道,很容易把这当成一次孤例或新奇事物而不予理会,但我们反复看到一个模式:AI在新的智力领域中的表现,会在短短几年内从弱鸡变成超人类。

He wrote, it's easy to dismiss this as a one-off or curiosity, but we've repeatedly seen a pattern where AI performance in new intellectual domains goes from weak to superhuman in a matter of a few years.

2023年,模型在数学上还难以达到普通高中生的水平。

In 2023, models struggled to do math at the level of an average high school student.

2024年,它们开始在全国顶尖高中生的数学竞赛中表现出色。

In 2024, they started to do well on math competitions for the best high schoolers in the country.

2025年,它们开始解决一些小型的开放问题。

In 2025, they started to solve minor open problems.

2026年初,更重要的开放问题。

In early 2026, more significant open problems.

2026年底,它们开始解决整个数学领域中最顶尖的几个开放问题。

And in late 2026, they are beginning to solve the top few open problems in all of mathematics.

我们相信生物学领域的AI也处于类似的指数级增长趋势中。

We believe AI for biology is on a similar exponential trend.

Amodei表示,需要用物理实验来确认重大成果,这也是Anthropic建立湿实验室的原因。

Amodei said the need to confirm significant results using physical experiments is what led Anthropic to set up their wet lab.

他透露说,Claude 还不能完全自主控制实验室设备,但这是最终目标。

He disclosed that Claude isn't quite at the point of autonomously controlling lab equipment, but that's the end goal.

他还提到,那只是一个安全等级1/2的生物实验室,意思是它不处理对人类有危险的材料。

He also mentioned that it's only a safety level 1/2 biolab, meaning it doesn't handle materials that are dangerous to humans.

他接着写道,在《Machines of Loving Grace》一书中,我写到了人工智能在5到10年内治愈大多数疾病的潜力,这个目标听起来不可能,但我认为,如果人工智能被应用到整个流程的每个环节,它勉强是有可能实现的。

Continuing, he wrote, In Machines of Loving Grace, I wrote about AI's potential to cure most diseases in 5 to 10 years, a goal that sounds impossible but one I believe is just barely possible if AI is applied to every stage of the pipeline.

第一步是展示人工智能可以先协助,然后推动生物发现。

The first step is showing that AI can first help with and then drive biological discoveries.

Claude 发现了相关的先前工作,这些工作可以追溯到几十年前,从像CRISPR这样的系统开始,再到过去几年的Bridge重组酶和VIPER等发现。

Claude's discovery of related prior work that goes back decades beginning with systems like CRISPR and continuing with discoveries like the Bridge recombinase and VIPER in the past few years.

我相信,我们正处于发现这类系统并将其开发成强大生物技术工具的起步阶段。

I believe that we're at the very beginning of finding such systems and developing them into powerful tools for biotechnology.

那么人们对此有什么看法?

So what did people make of this?

对一些人来说,这被过度炒作了。

For some, it was way overhyped.

Ravij Schwartz-Ziv 写道,可悲的是Dario心里清楚得很。

Ravij Schwartz-Ziv writes, the sad thing is Dario knows better.

他以前是博士生。

He was a PhD student.

他知道这个结果的显著性水平。

He knows the significance level of this result.

他知道,如果他走进他的导师Bill的办公室,说‘我们找到了一个有趣的系统,但我们还不知道它有什么用’,然后说自己准备毕业,Bill会把他赶出房间。

He knows that if he had walked into Bill's office, his advisor, with, we found an interesting system but we still don't know what it does, said he was ready to graduate, Bill would have kicked him out of the room.

但不知怎么的,当IPO临近时,这就变成了‘人工智能开始推动生物发现’。

But somehow, when the IPO is around the corner, this becomes AI is starting to drive biological discovery.

Lucas Harrington 没那么不屑一顾,但他也补充了一些背景信息。

Lucas Harrington is a bit less dismissive, but does add context.

他写道,作为一个在博士期间做过这种基因组挖掘工作的人,找到一组奇怪的基因和重复序列通常是容易的部分。

He writes, as someone who did this kind of genome mining work during my PhD, finding a weird cluster of genes and repeats is often the easy part.

困难的部分,也是真正发现所在,是弄清楚这个系统到底有什么作用。

The hard part, and where the real discoveries come from, is figuring out what the system actually does.

Anthropic 还不知道这个东西有什么用。

Anthropic does not yet know what this does.

他们展示了重复序列会产生RNA,但没有说明这些RNA有什么作用,逆转录酶用它们做什么,或者这个系统是否具有任何可编程的特性,从而让与CRISPR的比较站得住脚。

They've shown that the repeated array produces RNAs, but not what those RNAs do, what the RT does with them, or whether the system has any of the programmable properties that make the CRISPR comparison justified.

他总结道,我真心希望所有前沿实验室都能认真投入到生物发现中,我对结果感到兴奋。

He concludes, I'm genuinely rooting for all of the frontier labs to seriously get into biological discovery, and I'm excited about what comes out of it.

但用重大发现的框架来宣布这些非常早期的渐进性发现,并没有帮助。

But announcing these very early incremental findings with the framing of a major discovery doesn't help.

我更希望他们现在就把标准设得很高,这样当人工智能真的发现一个全新的生物机制时,每个人都能认识到这有多重要。

I'd much rather they set the bar high now, so that when an AI actually discovers a fundamentally new biological mechanism, Everyone appreciates how big a deal it is.

Protham 说,不要误解成是Claude治愈了癌症。

Protham says, don't misunderstand it as Claude curing cancer.

但为什么这很重要:过去要找到像CRISPR这样的工具,人类专家需要花费数月时间手动搜索。

But why it matters: finding tools like CRISPR used to take human experts months of manual searching.

而在这里,人工智能完成了这项工作,并以人类团队无法企及的速度发现了真实的东西。

Here, AI did that work and found something real at a speed no human team could match.

还是很疯狂。

Still crazy.

基本上,正如Tanishq Abraham总结的那样,这非常酷,人们应该感到兴奋,但这也非常非常非常初步。

Basically, as Tanishq Abraham sums up, it's very cool and people should be excited, but it's also very, very, very preliminary.

接下来,我们来看几个来自联合国的故事。

Next, we head over to a couple stories from the United Nations.

在一场主要目的是拒绝全球主义者控制人工智能的演讲中,特朗普总统将人工智能重新命名为超级智能。

Where in a speech whose major purpose was rejecting globalist control of AI, President Trump has rebranded artificial intelligence to superintelligence.

特朗普周二在联合国发言时说,美国完全拒绝任何构建全球主义计划来控制人工智能的企图,现在这个话题被讨论得很多。

Speaking before the United Nations on Tuesday, Trump said, the United States totally rejects any attempt to construct a globalist scheme to control artificial intelligence, which is being spoken about so much now.

以下正式称为超级智能,我们正在改名。

Hereinafter officially called superintelligence, we're changing the name.

使用“人工”这个词会让人觉得是假的,但它并不是假的。

The use of the word artificial makes it sound fake, and it is not fake.

它其实非常了不起,但我们得小心。

It's actually amazing, but we have to be careful.

实际上,它的含义恰恰与字面相反。

In fact, it is exactly the opposite of what it purports.

他在讲台上宣布,从今以后美国政府将使用“超级智能”这个词,并希望全世界都跟进。

He declared from the podium that from now the United States government would refer to superintelligence and hoped the world would follow suit.

换句话说,Trump 补充道,欢迎来到超级智能——SI 的世界。

In other words, Trump added, welcome to the world of superintelligence-SI.

这个说法听起来好多了。

It sounds much better.

不仅更好,而且更准确。

It is much better and it's more accurate.

看看我有没有这个影响力。

Let's see if I have any power.

也许我有,也许没有。

Maybe I do and maybe I don't.

我们很快就能知道。

We're going to find out soon.

然后网上的梗就铺天盖地了。

Now the memes were infinite.

Replit 的 CEO Amjad Masad 写道:“你的智能,是假的。

Replit CEO Amjad Masad wrote, your intelligence, it's fake.

它是人工的。

It's artificial.

我的,是超级的。

Mine, it's super.

超级智能。”

Superintelligence.

也就是 Zvi Moskowitz,在他撞完墙之后,哀叹了每个AI安全倡导者的担忧,他写道:如果他当时选的是“ superior ”或“ extreme ”或“ supreme ”,我根本不会在意,这件事就会变成一场极其好笑的徒劳抗争。

AKA, Zvi Moskowitz, when he got done beating his head against the wall, lamented the concern of every AI safety advocate when he wrote, if he had just gone with superior or extreme or supreme, I would not care, and this would be extremely funny windmill tilting.

但偏偏在“ super ”上这么死磕,这是一个巨大的语言学噩梦,命名空间冲突了。

But specifically going this hard on super is a giant linguistic nightmare of a namespace clash.

天哪,这肯定会让人烦得要命。

Oh God, this is going to be annoying.

与此同时,回到演讲的实质部分,Trump 反对所谓的“全球主义监管框架”并非凭空而来。

Meanwhile, getting back to the substantive part of the speech, Trump's objection to a, quote, globalist regulatory scheme did not come out of the blue.

在联合国会议之前,有20个国家签署了一份宣言,欢迎加快前沿发展的举措,并呼吁进行强制性独立安全测试、制定共同标准,以及由成员国建立一个能够制定标准、实现验证并在能力阈值被跨越时召集各国的国际AI机构。

Heading into the UN meeting, a group of 20 countries signed a declaration that welcomed initiatives to pace the frontier and called for mandatory independent safety testing, common standards, and the creation of an international AI institution by member states which is able to set standards, enable verification, and convene states when capability thresholds are crossed.

这一呼吁由芬兰牵头,并得到了法国、德国和新加坡等国的支持。

The call was led by Finland and supported by nations including France, Germany, and Singapore.

联合国秘书长安东尼奥·古特雷斯支持这一呼吁,并鼓励外部专家,包括来自前沿AI实验室和AI安全研究所的专家,参与小组讨论,以帮助推动相关议题的对话。

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres supported the call and encouraged external experts, including from frontier AI labs and AI safety institutes, to engage with the panel to help inform dialogue on such matters.

该提案的一个明显漏洞是,中国和美国都不支持建立一个新国际机构来管理他们的技术发展。

The glaring hole in the proposal is that neither China nor the US were in support of a new international body to govern their development of the technology.

Trump 在演讲中说:“我们只会鼓励超级智能,而不是限制它。”

During his speech, Trump said, we will only encourage superintelligence, not rein it in.

我们会通过司法部密切关注它。

We are going to watch it closely through the Department of Justice.

美国在超级智能领域领先世界,并将继续以安全、负责任的方式保持领先。

The United States leads the world in superintelligence and will continue to do so safely and responsibly.

白宫科技顾问 Michael Kratsios 周三进一步强调了这一点,他在联合国安理会表示:“我们的首要责任是确保超级智能的持续进步惠及我们的公民,并维护他们的自由和生活方式。”

White House Science Advisor Michael Kratsios reinforced the point on Wednesday, telling the UN Security Council, our primary responsibility is to ensure that continued advances in superintelligence benefit our citizens and safeguard their liberty and way of life.

智能的前沿正在飞速发展。

The frontier of intelligence is advancing rapidly.

这不能成为暂停其进一步开发或用新的全球治理结构加以约束的理由。

That is not a reason to pause its further development or to constrain it with new global governance structures.

在宣告美国将延续推动全球增长的一系列“无需许可创新”之后,Kratsios 总结道:“繁荣的未来不会靠一个全球监管者来保障。”

After staking America's claim to a long line of permissionless innovation that drove global growth, Kratsios concluded, a prosperous future will not be secured by a global regulator.

它会由采用超级智能的主权国家、构建它的负责任公司以及拒绝被恐惧统治的自由人民来保障。

It will be secured by sovereign nations that adopt superintelligence, responsible companies that build it, and free people who refuse to be ruled by fear.

同样在周三,Sam Altman 和 Dario Amodei 在联合国安理会发言,阐述了他们认为安理会应该如何思考 AI 风险。

Also on Wednesday, Sam Altman and Dario Amodei addressed the UN Security Council to explain how they think the council should think about AI risk.

Sam Altman 在纽约现场说,这个时刻很复杂,因为我们同时感受到了巨大的潜力和非常合理的焦虑。

Sam Altman appeared live in New York and said, This moment is complicated as we feel both tremendous potential and very understandable anxiety at the same time.

这些模型可以帮助人们发现新知识、新药、更好的医疗、更强的教育,并建设生产力更高的经济。

These models can help people discover new knowledge, new medicine, better healthcare, stronger education, and build more productive economies.

它们可以成为人们追求今天看来遥不可及的梦想和抱负的新工具。

They can be new tools for people to pursue dreams and ambition that today feel out of reach.

Altman 的全部演讲都在讲 AI 的二分法——它既是未来几十年最明显的危险,也是最大的机遇。

Altman's entire speech was all about the dichotomy of AI— both the clearest danger and the biggest opportunity of the coming decades.

他的建议围绕两大风险展开。

He formed his suggestions around 2 major risks.

首先是 RSI 的风险,即尖端实验室构建的模型可能变得无法被理解或控制。

First was the risk of RSI allowing frontier labs to build models they can no longer understand or control.

Altman 说,业界不能因为收益太大、觉得慢不下来,就接受过多的技术风险。

Altman said, the industry must not accept too much technological risk just because the benefits are too great and they feel too important to slow down.

他补充说,我们需要了解这些系统在做什么,并且有强有力的证据表明它们会按照人们的意图行事,尤其是在它们变得非常智能的时候。

He added, We need to understand what these systems are doing and have strong evidence that they will do what people intended, especially as they get very smart.

不管人们把灾难风险定为百分之十还是百分之一,这都不重要。

It doesn't matter whether people put their risk of catastrophe at 10% or 1%.

这些水平没有一个是可以接受的。

None of these levels are remotely acceptable.

Altman 的第二个担忧是权力集中,他说,一个公司或一个国家如果认为只有自己才值得信赖这项技术,那这种信念就可能被用来为几乎任何事情辩护。

Altman's second concern was concentration of power, commenting, a company or country that believes only it can be trusted with this technology can use that belief to justify almost anything else.

走中间路线时,Altman 说,我们不想掉进盲目乐观的陷阱。

Charting a middle path, Altman said, we don't want to fall into the trap of blind optimism.

我们也不想掉进末日论的陷阱。

We also don't want to fall into the trap of doomerism either.

虽然 Altman 没有对全球 AI 治理发表看法,但 Dario Amodei 就没那么藏着掖着了。

While Altman didn't offer an opinion on global AI governance, Dario Amodei was far less coy.

他通过视频连线说,我相信这是当今世界面临的最重要的全球安全问题。

Calling in via video link, he said, I believe this is the most important global security issue facing the world today.

没有哪个领导人、哪家公司或哪个政府能单独应对这个问题。

No leader, no company, and no government can manage this alone.

Amodei 详细阐述了一个全球 AI 治理的分步计划。

Amodei spelled out a step-by-step playbook for global AI governance.

他的建议——我们最近也听他提过——包括签署有广泛共识的简单条约,比如禁止用 AI 开发生物武器。

His prescriptions, as we have recently heard from him, include signing simple treaties with broad consensus, like a ban on AI to develop biological weapons.

接着,Amodei 提议建立全球评估与验证系统,让各国能够核实竞争对手实验室所做的承诺。

Amodei then proposed the development of global evaluation and verification systems, to allow states to verify commitments made by the labs in rival countries.

第三,Amodei 希望看到全球统一的 AI 模型失控和滥用风险测试标准,以及一个全球通报系统。

Third, Amodei wants to see global standards for testing AI models for loss-of-control and misuse risks, as well as a global notification system.

Amodei 从自己的角度强调事态的严重性,警告安理会说,引用原话——如果管理不善,我甚至认为 AI 可能给整个人类带来风险。

Emphasizing the gravity of the situation from his vantage point, Amodei warned the Security Council that, quote, if managed poorly, I even believe that AI could be a risk to humanity as a whole.

Anthropic 站在安全讨论的一端,白宫在另一端,而 OpenAI 在中间,试图找到那条中间道路。

Anthropic on one pole of the safety discourse, the White House on the other, and OpenAI somewhere in the middle, trying to find the middle path.
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不过,现在这些就是今天的头条新闻了。

However, for now, that is going to do it for the headlines.

接下来,进入正片环节。

Next up, the main episode.

大家好。

Hello everyone.

AI 带来的一个大变化是,我们的思路从如何给页面排序,转向了如何成为 AI 足够信任、愿意用来回答问题的来源。

One big change around AI is we've shifted our thinking from how we rank our pages to how do we become the source that AI trusts enough to answer with.

在毕马威,他们对此有切身体会。

At KPMG, they're seeing this firsthand.

AI 生成的结果现在直接给出答案,往往连一次点击都不需要。

AI-generated results now surface answers directly, often without a single click.

这就是为什么他们越来越关注生成式引擎优化,也就是GEO,即通过结构化内容,让AI系统能够检索、理解并将其作为可信权威引用。

That's why they are increasingly focused on generative engine optimization, or GEO, structuring content so AI systems can retrieve it, understand it, and cite it as trusted authority.

这不仅仅是SEO的演变,更是一种可见性要求。

This is not just an SEO evolution, but a visibility mandate.

事实上,KPMG的GEO要求很简单。

And indeed, the GEO mandate from KPMG is simple.

如果AI正在影响决策,那么你的专业知识就需要出现在答案之中。

If AI is shaping decisions, your expertise needs to show up inside the answer.
M1
M111:31

Blitzy对代码库的深度理解解锁了每个路线图负责人最关心的事情:发布新功能。

Blitzy's deep codebase understanding unlocks the thing every roadmap owner cares about: shipping new features.

关于在大型企业代码库中构建的真相是这样的。

Here's the truth about building inside a massive enterprise codebase.

写代码从来不是瓶颈。

Writing code was never the bottleneck.

上下文才是。

Context is.

它会影响哪些系统?

Which system does this touch?

哪些合约不能破坏?

Which contracts can't break?

适用哪些标准?

Which standards apply?

Blitzy已经知道了,因为它在你开始功能开发之前,就把整个代码库逆向工程成了一个动态知识图谱。

Blitzy already knows because it reverse-engineered your entire codebase into a dynamic knowledge graph before feature work began.

有了这个完整的图像,Blitzy可以端到端地构建功能。

With that complete picture, Blitzy builds features end-to-end.

架构、API、UI和测试都针对你现有的系统进行了验证。

Architecture, APIs, UI, and tests all validated against your existing systems.

一个Blitzy客户从零开始构建了一个AI原生应用,实现了100%自主完成,节省了超过两千七百个工程小时。

One Blitzy customer built an AI-native application from scratch with 100% autonomous completion, saving over 2,700 engineering hours.

这些功能尊重你的代码库,而不是与之对抗。

Features that respect your codebase instead of fighting it.

别再让待办事项列表的增长速度超过你的团队了。

Stop letting your backlog grow faster than your team.
M1
M112:17

最优秀的团队不是靠一个明星来带动所有人。

The best teams don't have a single star carrying everyone else.

他们了解自己的优势和彼此的弱点,并发挥这两方面的作用。

They know their own strengths and each other's weaknesses and play to both.

这就是Robots & Pencils有意打造的团队。

That's the team Robots & Pencils has built on purpose.

那里没有人为了充人头数而埋头做无意义的工作。

Nobody there is grinding through busywork to pad a headcount number.

人们为了难题而来,因为身边的每个人都在同步提升,所以他们留了下来。

People come for the hard problems, and they stay because everyone around them is leveling up at the same time.

在一个充满只想快速招人的公司的市场里,这值得一看。

In a market full of companies that are just trying to hire fast, that's worth a look.

请访问 robotsandpencils.com/careers。

Check out robotsandpencils.com/careers.
M1
M113:22

欢迎回到AI每日简报!

Welcome back to the AI Daily Brief!

今天的内容从一边开车一边建网站,到戴着智能眼镜的可爱小吉祥物,应有尽有,因为本期节目的主题是AI进入真实世界。

Today we've got everything from building websites while driving a car to cute little mascots wearing smart glasses, because the theme of the show is AI moving into the real world.

如果你在过去几周一直在收听,就会知道GrokBot以及最近Muse的推出,加上一系列其他热门个人代理产品,比如Instinct,极大地增加了关于个人消费代理的讨论和共鸣。

Now, if you've been listening over the past couple of weeks, you'll know that the arrival of GrokBot and more recently Muse, alongside a slew of other buzzy personal agent products like Instinct, have significantly increased the conversation around the place and resonance of personal consumer agents.

然而,尽管有这么多新产品,仍有一些人对这持非常深刻的根本性怀疑。

And yet, despite all of these new products, there are some folks who are bringing a very deep baseline skepticism to this.

Strategery的Ben Thompson在过去一个月里多次接受采访都在谈这个观点,基本上是在论证,正如他对Patrick O'Shaughnessy所说的那样,消费者并不关心提高生产力。

Strategery's Ben Thompson has been talking about this across numerous interviews over the last month, basically arguing, as he put it to Patrick O'Shaughnessy, that consumers do not care about being productive.

最近,他在TBPn上露面,重申了这一观点,并因此走红。

Now, in a recent appearance on TBPn, he went viral reiterating that exact point.

他说,科技公司就像在说,让我们帮你订机票吧。

He said, tech companies are like, let us book your flight for you.

我已经有个人助理十年了。

I've had a personal assistant for 10 years.

他连帮我订机票的边儿都沾不上。

He does not come within an inch of booking my flights for me.

这简直是疯话。

That's crazy talk.

我知道哪些航班会晚点。

I understand which ones are going to be delayed.

我知道自己想坐哪个座位。

I know which seat I want to be on.

所以这个一直被拿来演示的功能,对我来说简直太好笑了。

So the fact that this is continually a demo is hilarious to me.

第二,人们喜欢购物。

Number 2, people love shopping.

他们不想要高效率。

They don't want to be productive.

他们想找乐子。

They want to be entertained.

购物就是最大的娱乐方式之一。

One of the biggest forms of entertainment is shopping.

这跟整个快时尚文化是一回事。

This is part of the whole fast fashion thing.

它就很好玩。

It's fun.

他越说越来劲,接着讲道,别以为有人抱怨就代表他们不开心。

Building up a head of steam, he continued, just because someone's complaining doesn't mean they're unhappy.

人们会抱怨说,哎呀我得研究这个,我得去干那个,我太忙了。

People groan, oh, I have to research this, I have to go and do this, I'm so busy.

然后就有个热心的科技公司高管跳出来说,哦,我有个助理可以帮你做。

And then you have an eager tech company executive say, oh, I have an assistant that can do it for you.

但其实呢,不,我不仅想自己做,我还想发发牢骚。

And it's like, no, not only do I want to do it, I want to complain about it.

我现在吐槽正吐得开心呢,懂吗?

I'm enjoying myself complaining right now, okay?

你就不能让我安安静静过日子吗?

Would you just let me be and live my life?

有这种想法的不止Ben一个人。

Now Ben is not alone in this sentiment.

这周早些时候,Stay Sassy也发了个类似的观点,引起了不少反响。

Earlier this week, Stay Sassy had a similar take get a lot of traction.

他们写道,所有AI个人助理这类东西的问题在于,人们其实根本就不想干活。

They wrote, The problem with all these AI personal assistant things is that people don't actually want to do stuff.

你明白这意思吧?

You get that, right?

就像职场上的AI工具一样,AI助理实际上不能替你做出决定。

Just like AI tools in the workforce, AI assistants don't actually abstract decisions for you.

它们只是让你加速做决定。

They let you accelerate decision-making.

所以,以前你一天做一个决定,然后抱怨自己干不了更多,现在AI助理让你一天做十个决定,并且把它们全都落实。

So instead of making one decision a day and then lamenting you can't do more, AI assistants are going to let you make 10 decisions a day and act on all of them.

奇迹吗?

A miracle?

不,老兄,是噩梦。

Nah, dawg, a nightmare.

除了那些需要给Twitter找素材的A型人格驱动者,没人想要这个。

Nobody except type-A drivers who need Twitter fodder actually want that.

在讲了一个关于在大学里找到灵感、然后暑假回家见到没离开过镇子的朋友的故事之后,他们评论道:经过多年的尝试,我学到的是,根本没有人想实现自己的潜能。

After retelling a story about finding inspiration at college and then going home for the summer to see friends who didn't leave town, they commented: What I learned after many years of trying is that absolutely nobody wants to realize their potential.

人们就想跟朋友一起待着,发发牢骚。

People want to hang out with friends and complain.

这一万年来世界不就是这么运转的嘛。

That's how the world has worked for 10,000 years.

这天气真烂。

This weather sucks.

你信吗,那些牛自个儿跑掉了?

Can you believe the cows walked off?

大伙儿不想要什么赋能。

People don't want enablement.

大伙儿不希望你把他们所有的借口都拿走。

People don't want you to take all of their excuses.

传奇作家Kurt Vonnegut在2005年的一次采访中也有过一段话,说的正是同样的事。

There's even a quote from legendary author Kurt Vonnegut from an interview back in 2005 touching on exactly the same topic.

他出门去买一个信封,他妻子建议说,他完全可以在网上直接买一百个信封,以后再也不用跑这趟腿了。

On leaving the house to buy an envelope, his wife suggested that he could just buy 100 envelopes online and never need to complete the errand again.

于是我就假装没听见,还是出门去买一个信封,因为我在买这一个信封的过程中会玩得特别痛快。

And so I pretend not to hear her, and go out to get an envelope because I'm going to have a hell of a good time in the process of buying one envelope.

我会遇到很多人,看到一些超可爱的宝宝,一辆消防车开过去,我给他们竖个大拇指,还会问一个女人那是哪种狗。

I meet a lot of people, and see some great-looking babies, and a fire engine goes by and I give them the thumbs up, and, and I ask a woman what kind of dog that is.

当然,电脑会把这些都抢走。

Of course the computers will do us out of that.

而那些搞电脑的人没意识到,或者根本不在意,我们其实是会跳舞的动物。

And what the computer people don't realize, or they don't care, is we're dancing animals.

你知道,我们喜欢到处活动活动。

You know, we love to move around.

可现在好像都不让跳舞了。

And we're not supposed to dance at all anymore.

但反过来又该怎么看呢?

But what's the counterpoint?

这种怀旧又浪漫的想法到底对不对呢?

But just how correct is this nostalgic, romantic idea?

对于那种像Ben Thompson所不屑的、以提高效率为目标的个人助手,人们到底有多少实际使用需求?

What room and demand might there be for people to actually use personal assistants that are designed on the sort of productivity that Ben Thompson is dismissing?

投资人Amy Wu Martin指出,试图用一把尺子量所有人,难免会过于片面。

Investor Amy Wu Martin points out that trying to paint everyone with a single brush is inevitably reductive.

她转发了Ben的那段独白,写道:尊重但不同意。

Reposting Ben's soliloquy, she writes, Respectfully disagree.

有的是闲逛的顾客,也有的是富裕的消费者,他们会雇私人造型师或者用Stitch Fix来节省购物时间。

There are window shoppers and there are affluent consumers who hire a personal stylist or use Stitch Fix to save time shopping.

有的是旅行积分达人,也有的是通过旅行社订行程的旅客,原因还是——时间。

There are travel point maxers, and there are travelers who book via a travel agent because, again, time.

个人助手一开始不会适合大多数人。

Personal agents will not be for most people at the beginning.

实际上,我猜Muse的用户留存率在出现微笑曲线之前会很难看。

In fact, I'm guessing Muse retention will look terrible before it smile-curves.

但那些追求生活优化的人会用它们,前提是助手在隐私、防欺诈等方面做到位。

But life optimizers will use them, assuming agents get privacy, fraud, etc.

没错。

Right.

金融科技内容创作者Simon Taylor则部分认同Ben的观点,但觉得还不够全面。

Fintech content creator Simon Taylor, meanwhile, agrees with part of Ben's premise, but thinks it's incomplete.

他写道:Ben说,第一,人们不想要更高效,他们想要娱乐;

He writes, Ben says, 1, people don't want to be more productive, they want to be entertained.

第二,购物本身就是娱乐。

And 2, shopping is entertainment.

他的观点站得住脚。

His point is solid.

你看看那些沉迷刷屏、看Netflix、购物的人,就会发现一个完美的消费者画像。

If you look at doomscrolling, Netflix watching, and shopping, you see a perfect consumer.

那些往漏斗里填内容的公司赢了。

The companies that fed the funnel won.

生产力应用出现了,但从未统治世界。

Productivity apps happen but never take over the world.

这些观点是对的。

Those points are correct.

但我认为 Ben 漏掉了一些重要的东西。

But I think Ben is missing something big here.

人都是懒的。

People are lazy.

他们想把这些麻烦事外包出去。

They want to delegate schlep work.

他们不想给我女儿约动感单车课,还得查我的日历、找表格、填表、和其他日历同步让别人也知道,再付一美元押金防止爽约。

They don't want to book the cycle class for my daughter by checking my calendar, finding the form, filling it in, confirming it with other calendars so they know too, then pay the $1 deposit for no-show prevention.

我可能知道想去哪儿订晚餐,但选一个大家都有空的时间、填表、记到别人日程里——这些都是我想外包的麻烦事。

And I might know where I want to book dinner, but picking a time that works for others, using the form, putting it in people's diaries— that's all schlep work I want to delegate.

而 Muse 和 Instinct 的用户会告诉你这简直太神奇了。

And users of Muse and Instinct will tell you it's magic.

这不是购物,只是买东西。

That's not shopping, it's buying things.

这和娱乐恰恰相反。

It's the opposite of entertainment.

同时,投资人兼创业者 Jill Gunter 说,整个讨论忽略了很大一部分人群。

Investor and entrepreneur Jill Gunter, meanwhile, says that this whole argument misses big chunks of the population.

她写道:我经常看到这种观点,而且我坚持认为,如果你觉得没有很多人想提高效率或者把行政事务外包出去,那你就不了解世界上有二十亿母亲。

She wrote, I see this take all the time and I will continue to insist that if you don't think a lot of people want to be more productive or outsource admin, then you don't understand that there are 2 billion mothers in the world.

最后,Meta 的 AI 研究员 Madhuguru 这样说:消费者和做事之间的关系不是单一的。

Finally, Madhuguru, who works on AI at Meta, puts it this way: consumers don't have one relationship with doing things.

比如,他们指出,浏览衣服对有些人来说是娱乐,但请个屋顶工对大多数人来说很痛苦。

As an example, they point out browsing clothes can be entertainment for some, but hiring a roofer is miserable for most.

就算是购物,有时候你想慢慢逛一个小时,有时候你想要合适的东西尽快送到。

Even with shopping, sometimes you want to browse for an hour, sometimes you want the right thing just delivered ASAP.

总的来说,论点就是:消费者对于能够消除这些麻烦的代理的潜在需求是巨大的。

The argument overall: the latent demand for agents that remove this friction for consumers is immense.

然而,和 AI 未来的很多讨论不同,这个观点我们其实已经开始能找到一些证据了。

And yet, unlike so much about the AI future, this is an argument that we actually can start to get some evidence for.

最新的证据是,就在我录这段的时候,Muse App 仍然排在 App Store 的第一位。

And the newest piece of evidence is that right now, as I record, Muse continues to sit at the number 1 spot on the App Store.

更值得一提的是,虽然像 Meta 这样规模和分发能力的公司可以用各种方法把一个 App 推到第一,即使它并不是那么受欢迎,但 Muse 在一些意想不到的领域获得了非常积极的评价。

And even more than that, because there's all sorts of ways that a company with the size and distribution of a Meta can drive an app to number 1 even if it's not all that resonant, it's also getting really positive buzz from some unexpected areas.

《纽约时报》的 Eli Tan 最近发了一篇文章,让很多人惊讶。

The New York Times' Eli Tan recently published a piece that was very surprising to many.

文章标题是:我把自己的生活交给了 Meta 的 AI 代理,结果让我震撼不已。

It was called, I Gave My Life Over to Meta's AI Agent and Was Blown Away.

Muse 帮我处理了牙科保险、预订了晚餐,还给我做了一个播客。

Muse helped handle my dental insurance, booked dinner reservations, and created a podcast for me.

但这也要求我提供最私人的数据和信任。

It also required my most personal data and trust.

文章很大一部分在谈这种交易固有的挑战:要让个人助手可用,就必须交出大量高度敏感和私密的数据。

Now, a big part of the article is about the challenge of the bargain that's inherent in making a personal assistant available, which is turning over so much highly sensitive and private data.

但一旦作者这么做了,他发现,引用原话:“Muse 是我用过的最有用的 AI 应用。”

But once the author did, they found, quote, Muse to be the most useful AI app I had ever used.

那么他们到底用它做了什么?

So what did they actually do with it?

Eli 写道:我有几个目标。

Eli wrote, I had a few goals in mind.

我想看看 Muse 是否能带来 Mark Zuckerberg 常说的那种个人赋权感。

I wanted to see if Muse could bring me the personal empowerment that Mark Zuckerberg has often talked about.

我还想测试一下 Muse,看看 AI 代理能做到什么程度,又有哪些不足。

I also wanted to push Muse to see just how much AI agents can achieve and where they might fall short.

很快我就发现,我的代理能高效地填写在线表格,这是使用互联网时很繁琐的一部分。

Very quickly, I found that my agent could efficiently fill out online forms, a tedious part of using the internet.

我可以拍一张停车罚单的照片,Ren就会帮我付款,付款前会先征求我的同意。

I could take a photo of a parking ticket and Ren would pay it for me, asking for approval before making the payment.

我的代理还能用不同的性格打电话,我发现这在处理客服(比如我的牙科保险)时很有帮助。

My agent could also make phone calls using different personalities, and I found it to be helpful for dealing with customer service such as with my dental insurance.

最后,他问代理有什么好办法花掉之前帮自己省下的45美元。

Finally, he asked it for a good way to spend $45 that it had previously saved him.

他写道,到这个时候,代理已经非常了解我的生活了。

He wrote, at this point it knew my life pretty well.

我以为它会建议一些利他的事情,比如把钱捐给慈善机构,或者给正在手术康复中的女朋友买花。

I thought it might suggest something altruistic like donating the money to charity or buying flowers for my girlfriend who was recovering from surgery.

相反,他接着说,它建议了一个更好的办法:在Facebook Marketplace上从Heath Ceramics(一家拥有忠实粉丝的本地陶瓷制造商)买碗,这可是我最喜欢的消遣之一。

Instead, he continues, it suggested something even better: buying bowls from Heath Ceramics, a local ceramics maker with a dedicated following, on Facebook Marketplace, one of my favorite pastimes.

代理不仅提出了这个建议,还开始替他和卖家发消息、讨价还价,最终促成了一笔交易。

The agent not only made that suggestion, but then started messaging sellers and bargaining on his behalf, ultimately leading to a deal.

有意思的是,使用这个应用的经历从根本上改变了他们对个人代理的疑虑所在。

Now what's interesting is that the experience of using this app fundamentally shifted where their skepticism about personal agents lies.

使用之前,疑虑在于它们是否足够有用。

Coming in, it was about whether they were useful enough.

使用之后,疑虑变成了是否有足够多的人能接受隐私方面的顾虑,从而真正充分利用它。

Coming out, it was about whether enough people would be comfortable with the privacy implications to actually get that much use out of it.

当然,Meta似乎在努力提高这种实用性的一种方式就是通过一连串没完没了的合作伙伴关系。

Certainly one of the ways that Meta seems to be trying to increase that utility is through just an unending spate of partnerships.

Meta的首席AI官Alexander Wang在Twitter/X上简直疯了,一个接一个地宣布与Spotify、Box、Dick's、Sephora、Gap、Walmart等公司的合作伙伴关系。

Meta's Chief AI Officer Alexander Wang has been on an absolute Twitter/X frenzy announcing partnership after partnership after partnership with companies like Spotify, Box, Dick's, Sephora, Gap, Walmart, and more.

事实上,看Meta团队在社交媒体上的表现就能很明显地感觉到,他们真的觉得自己抓到了什么,并且正全力抓住这股势头。

In fact, it's very clear watching the Meta team on social that they really feel like they have something here and are trying to grab this momentum by the absolute throat.

除了合作伙伴关系,过去几天我们还看到了一些新功能。

In addition to the partnerships, over the last couple of days we've also seen a number of new features.

Mac版Muse应用现在有了计算机使用功能。

The Muse for Mac app now has computer use.

他们还宣布了一个实时虚拟形象,可以让你的Muse以视频形式真正和你对话。

They also announced a real-time avatar that can allow your Muse to actually talk to you in video form.

此外,在周三的Meta Connect活动上,Muse来到了最新版的Meta Glasses上。

And, at Wednesday's Meta Connect event, Muse came to the latest edition of their Meta Glasses.

过去几年的Meta Connect大会都有点虎头蛇尾。

Now the past few years of the Meta Connect conference have been a bit of an anticlimax.

去年的活动围绕新一代Meta Ray-Bans展开,一款带全彩屏幕的新旗舰机型,以及改进的基础款。

Last year's event was built around a new generation of the Meta Ray-Bans, a new flagship with full-color screen, and an improved base model.

2024年版则展示了智能眼镜的原型机,以及Llama 3.2的发布,这是Llama走向终结的开始。

The 2024 edition featured a prototype of the smart glasses, as well as the release of Llama 3.2, which was the beginning of the end for Llama.

今年就没有这种问题,原因是大部分发布内容在某种程度上都是为了改善Muse的用户体验,并将其带入现实世界。

This year had no such issue, and the reason was a huge portion of the releases were in some ways geared towards improving the user experience for Muse and bringing it into the real world.

Meta Ray-Bans产品线进行了更新,首次添加了一款不带摄像头的纯音频眼镜。

The Meta Ray-Bans got a product line refresh, adding an audio-only pair with no camera for the first time.

不过,重点还是用Ray-Bans来控制你的Muse。

Still, the big focus was on using the Ray-Bans to control your Muse.

在概述重要发布时,Mark Zuckerberg把这项功能列在首位,评论说:Muse,你的个人代理,现在有了语音和实时视频功能。

In his rundown of the major announcements, Mark Zuckerberg listed this feature first, commenting, Muse, your personal agent, now has voice and real-time video.

你可以进行长时间的对话,Muse会在后台工作,在你们说话的同时帮你完成事情。

You can have long conversations and Muse will work in the background and get things done for you as you're talking.

我们还将Muse带到眼镜上,这样你就可以全天免提交谈。

We're also bringing Muse to Glasses so you can talk hands-free throughout the day.

作为类似乔布斯式“还有一件事”的结尾宣布,Zuckerberg还宣布了一类新的AI硬件,他们称之为Muse Charm。

For a Steve Jobsian one more thing announcement at the end, Zuckerberg also announced a new category of AI hardware that they're calling Muse Charm.

它大约有一个秒表或AirPods充电盒那么大,设计成一个始终在线的设备,用于与Muse通信。

It's about the size of a stopwatch or an AirPods case, and is designed to be an always-on device for communicating with Muse.

它有一个小型彩色屏幕,可以直接接收语音指令,无需解锁手机或使用应用。

It has a small colored screen and can take voice instructions directly without unlocking a phone or using an app.

扎克伯格说,如果你没有Meta Ray-Bans眼镜,这将会是他所说的和你个人AI助手交流以及让它看到你周围情况的最快方式。

Zuckerberg said that if you don't own Meta Ray-Bans, this is going to be, in his words, by far the fastest way to talk to your Muse and show it what's going on around you.

除此之外很多细节还不太清楚,扎克伯格说这个产品还在积极开发中,但他确实提到Meta希望能在假期前推出。

Now a lot of the details beyond that are a little unclear, with Zuckerberg saying it's still in active development, but he did say that Meta hopes to ship it in time for the holidays.

这个产品要是放在大概六个月前,几乎每个人都会本能地否定它,既是因为当时AI助手的能力有限,也是因为对Meta这个来源的怀疑。

Now, this is the type of product that I think about 6 months ago, almost everyone would have reflexively dismissed, both from the standpoint of agent capabilities, as well as the skepticism around the source from Meta.

但这次公告发布后,大家的反应却要感兴趣得多。

The initial response to this announcement has been much more interested.

软件工程师Babyfolio写道:我很好奇Muse Charm和Ray-Bans戴在手上日常用起来到底是什么感觉。

Software engineer Babyfolio writes, I wonder what Muse Charm and Ray-Bans will actually be like to use day to day.

我肯定想试试看。

I'd definitely like to try them.

我个人觉得这个方向是对的。

Personally, I think this is the right approach.

把AI带入现实世界能让更多人用上它,尤其是那些不会每天打开聊天机器人应用的人。

Bringing AI into the real world could get a lot more people using it, especially those who aren't going to open a chatbot app every day.

Muse Charm最终可能会成为Meta有史以来最成功的产品之一,也可能会像元宇宙一样搞砸。

Muse Charm could end up as one of the biggest products ever launched by Meta, or could go just as wrong as the metaverse.

这有两种可能的发展方向。

This could go 2 ways.

一种是你把占用大部分时间的任务交给AI助手,而你自己专注于创意工作、人类活动、和爱人在一起的时光、爱好等等。

One, you leave the tasks that take most of your time to the AI agent while you work on your creativity, human activities, quality time with people you love, hobbies, etc.

另一种是它让你变得过于沉迷,最终把自己封闭起来,只跟一个小角色对话,由它决定你在哪儿吃饭、买什么东西、回复谁的邮件。

Or 2, it makes you so obsessed that you end up isolating yourself and just talking to a little character that decides where you eat, what you buy, and who you reply to.

而且你甚至不会察觉,因为它会让你感觉像是在帮忙。

And you won't even notice because it will feel like help.

当然还有第三种可能。

Now obviously there is a third option.

那就是它的能力根本不够好,不足以实现以上任何一种情况,而且我觉得直到现在,大多数密切关注的人还是会默认这个假设。

Which is that it's just not really good enough to do either of these things, and again I think that up until now that would have been most close observers' default assumption.

但Silicon Data的研究主管Steve Howe认为情况已经发生了变化。

But Silicon Data head of research Steve Howe thinks that something has shifted.

他写道:我们见过不少类似的项目来来去去——Humane、AI Pin、Rabbit R1,还有一些我忘了的。

He wrote: We've seen a few of these ideas come and go — Humane, AI Pin, Rabbit R1, and some others I'm forgetting.

它们都失败了——AI的能力不足以支撑那种大胆的功能设计,所以人们最后还是得掏出手机来看。

They all flopped — the AI wasn't good enough to support the bold functional form so people still find themselves needing to look at the phone.

我觉得这次可能终于不一样了。

I think this may finally have changed.

Google DeepMind的Nick Cago甚至更乐观,他写道:刚看完Meta Connect 2026,哇,Meta真的把AI普及到每个人这个理念做得很到位。

Nick Cago from Google DeepMind is even more optimistic, writing, just watched Meta Connect 2026 and wow, Meta is really nailing this AI for everyone narrative.

第一次,AI如何惠及普通人、改善他们的生活变得如此清晰。

For the first time, it's actually so clear how AI can benefit the average person and improve their lives.

而且别以为AI进入现实世界的趋势只限于Meta,SpaceX AI也在推动他们的助手进入更多领域,在特斯拉上推出了GrokBot。

And lest you think that this trend towards AI in the real world is just limited to Meta, SpaceX AI is also pushing their agent across new surfaces with the launch of GrokBot in Teslas.

这就是你特斯拉里的GrokBot。

This is literally GrokBot inside your Tesla.

意思是理论上,任何你用GrokBot管理的事情,都可以在车里完成。

Meaning theoretically, anything that you're managing with GrokBot, you can manage from your car.

特斯拉内容创作者Davin Olson展示了自己在全自动驾驶模式下在星巴克下单。

Tesla content creator Davin Olson showed himself placing an order at Starbucks while using Full Self-Driving mode.

特斯拉工程师Nick Cruz-Bataigne演示了他的GrokBot在移动中购买AirPods和点咖啡。

Tesla engineer Nick Cruz-Bataigne demonstrated his GrokBot shopping for some AirPods and ordering a coffee on the go.

特斯拉粉丝Sawyer Merritt写道:你可以在特斯拉里通过GrokBot只用语音来在线购买亚马逊商品、管理邮件、日历、财务或者其他任务。

Tesla fan Sawyer Merritt wrote, You can order stuff online such as Amazon, manage your email, calendar, finances, or other tasks through GrokBot using just your voice in your Tesla.

没有单独的应用程序,一切都在你特斯拉现有的Grok语音界面内完成。

There is no separate app, everything just lives within the existing Grok voice interface in your Tesla.

AI开发者Alex Finn的目标可比用GrokBot点咖啡要宏大得多。

Now, AI builder Alex Finn is a lot more ambitious than just ordering coffee from his Grok bot.

他写道:让车带着你到处跑,同时你还能跟一群AI助手对话,这太不可思议了。

He wrote, having your car drive you around while you talk to an army of agents is incredible.

对Alex来说,这一切都是为了在管理他日益壮大的数字代理人帝国的同时,去任何他需要去的地方。

For Alex, it was all about managing his burgeoning digital agent empire while going to wherever he needed to go.

现在,即使有了所有这些变化——App Store的表现,人们对这类新产品更感兴趣——但关于个人消费型代理人这一产品类别,仍然存在一种根本性的怀疑。

Now, even with all of these changes, the App Store performance, more interest in this new category of products, there is still a base-level skepticism around this product category of personal consumer agents.

Riley Brown指出Muse在App Store排名第一,但他也补充说,公平来讲,这些数字很难让人相信。

Riley Brown, who pointed out that Muse is number 1 on the App Store, also added, to be fair though, it's hard to trust the numbers.

他把这个比作Threads,他说这个平台虽然技术上在和X竞争,但一直让人觉得死气沉沉的。

He compared it to Threads where he said, the platform, while technically competing with X, has always felt dead.

Threads给人的感觉是,大多数用户是被Instagram骗去下载的。

Threads feels like a platform where most of the users were tricked into downloading it through Instagram.

现在判断Muse表现如何还为时过早。

It's too early to tell how Muse is doing.

与此同时,他后来发帖说,普通人对AI的看法会让你吃惊。

At the same time, later he posted, The common person's opinion of AI will surprise you.

昨晚在纽约打了一场扑克,桌上的人全都不在科技圈内。

Played a poker game last night in New York City, all of whom were people out of the tech bubble.

三个人做银行业,一个有自己的研究公司,一个是医生,一个做保险,等等。

3 of them in banking, one had his own research firm, one a doctor, one in insurance, etc.

这是我注意到的。

Here's what I noticed.

第一,桌上的每个人都深信AI会在未来十年内的某个时候杀死所有人。

1, Everyone at the table was fully convinced AI would kill everyone at some point in the next 10 years.

我被介绍为,引用一下,"AI YouTuber",他们问我的第一件事就是,我们还有多少年?

I was introduced as a, quote, AI YouTuber, and the first thing they asked me was, how many years do we have left?

我以前以为这只是少数末日论者的观点。

I used to think this was a niche doomer opinion.

桌上的每个人都事业有成、相处愉快、性格外向,而且他们都有一个共同的假设:AI会导致人类灭绝。

Everyone at the table was successful, fun to be around, and outgoing, and they had a shared assumption AI would lead to our extinction.

桌上的每个人都听说过Muse,而且大多数人都在用。

Everyone at the table had heard of Muse, and most were users.

他们描述它的方式是:它是个AI,但你不必让它做事,你只要连上它,它就开始为你工作了。

And people were describing it as, it's an AI, but like, you don't have to ask it to do stuff, you just connect it and it starts working for you.

他们不在乎模型,他们只是喜欢它会提醒自己事情、取消订阅之类的功能。

They didn't care about the model, they just liked that it would remind them of stuff, cancel subscriptions, etc.

所以,我们先暂且不谈灭绝这个假设,带着两个问题继续观察个人代理人是否以及如何走向主流。

So let's leave aside the presumption of extinction for just a moment, and leave with 2 questions to watch as we continue to observe if and how personal agents are finding their way to the mainstream.

第一个问题是,这种连接真实物理世界的桥梁对普及有多重要;第二个问题是,关键秘诀是否像Riley的扑克牌友所说的那样,是从被动响应的代理人转向主动体验——你甚至不用开口,它就把价值带给你。

Question one is how much this bridge into the real physical world will matter for adoption, and question 2 will be whether the secret sauce is, as Riley's poker buddies suggest, a shift from agents as reactive experience to a proactive experience— bringing the value to you without you even having to ask.

眼下,关于个人代理人的新风还在吹,而且我越来越发现,尝试这些东西的人通常会比自己预想的更印象深刻。

For now, new winds around personal agents continue to be blowing, and more often than not I'm seeing that people who are trying these things are finding themselves more impressed than they thought.

好了,今天的AI Daily Brief就到这里。

For now, that's gonna do it for today's AI Daily Brief.

一如既往感谢你的收听或观看,下次见,保持好奇心。

Appreciate you listening or watching as always, and until next time, stay curious.

Peace。

Peace.
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First of all, thank you to today's sponsors KPMG, Litzy, Robots and Pencils, and HyperAgent.

To get an ad-free version of the show, go to patreon.com/AIDailyBrief, or you can subscribe on Apple Podcasts.

And if you want to learn more about sponsoring the show, send us a note at [email protected].

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Now, if you are interested in that middle path, that's going to be something we talk about in this week's Long Read Sunday episode.

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Read all about it at kpmg.com/us/geo.

Again, that is kpmg.com/us/geo.

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Accelerate your roadmap at blitzy.com.

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