2009年股东大会 · 用五分钟概述巴菲特的投资方法论 — 文稿

M10:00

所以我的问题是关于 free cash flow。

So my question is free cash flow.

Sell-side analysts 很喜欢做一个十年的 discounted cash flow analysis，再加上一个 terminal value。

Sell-side analysts like to do a 10-year discounted cash flow analysis with a terminal value.

甚至有些写你投资风格的书，呃，像 The Warren Buffett Way 和 Buffettology，都让人觉得你也会做这一套。

Even some of the books written about your style, uh, The Warren Buffett Way and Buffettology, imply that you go through that exercise.

但我知道你很有名的一点是，你不用电脑，也不用计算器。

But I know you're famous for not using computers or calculators.

我想知道，这类练习是不是会被你归到“太难处理”的档案里，然后你只是用一个简单的 free cash flow，用 normalized free cash flow 除以 discount rate 来看。

I'm wondering if those type of exercises fall into the too-hard file, and you just do a simple free cash flow, normalized free cash flow over a discount rate.

如果你愿意的话，再补充一下你对 Coke 的数字分析，我会很感激。

And if you care to augment the answer with your numerical analysis of Coke, I'd appreciate that.

M20:50

哦。

Oh.

M30:54

不！

No!

M20:55

嗯，答案是，投资——所有投资本质上都是——现在先拿出现金，之后再拿回更多现金。

Well, the answer is that investing—all investing is—is laying out cash now to get more cash back at a later date.

那么问题就在于，你最后能拿回多少？

Now, the question is, how much do you get back?

你有多大把握能拿到？

How sure are you of getting it?

你是在什么时候拿到？

When do you get it?

这其实可以追溯到 Aesop's fables，你知道的，手里一只鸟，胜过林子里两只鸟。

It goes back to Aesop's fables, you know, a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.

这句话是 Aesop 在公元前六百年说的。

Now, that was said by Aesop in 600 B.C.

而且，他是个非常聪明的人。

Now, and he was a very smart man.

他当时不知道那是公元前六百年，不过我的意思是，一个人也不可能什么都知道。

He didn't know it was 600 B.C., but I mean, he couldn't know everything.

呃，但 finance 里教的其实就是这个。

Uh, but that's what's being taught in finance.

现在你去读个 PhD，他们会把这件事讲得更复杂一点，而且不会说什么“手里一只鸟，胜过林子里两只鸟”，因为那样没法靠这个去让外行人觉得你很厉害。

You get a PhD now and you do it more complicated, and you don't say a bird in the hand's worth two in the bush because you can't really impress the laity with that sort of thing.

但真正的问题是，林子里到底有多少只鸟？

But the real question is, how many birds are in the bush?

你知道，你今天先交出去一只鸟，也就是一块钱，那林子里到底有多少只鸟？

You know you're laying out a bird today, the dollar, and then how many birds are in the bush?

你对那个林子有多大把握？

How sure are you about the bush?

别的林子里又有多少只鸟？

How many birds are in other bushes?

discount rate 是多少？

What's the discount rate?

换句话说，如果利率是百分之二十，那你就得比利率是百分之五的时候，更快拿到那两只鸟，诸如此类。

In other words, if interest rates are 20%, you got to get those two birds faster than if interest rates are 5%, and so on.

呃，这就是我们做的事。

Uh, that's what we do.

我的意思是，我们看的就是现在拿出现金，之后拿回更多现金。

I mean, we are looking at putting out cash now to get back more cash later on.

呃，你刚才提到我不用电脑或者计算器。

Uh, you mentioned that I don't use a computer or calculator.

如果你需要用电脑或者计算器才能把这个账算明白，呃，那你就不该买它。

If you need to use a computer or calculator to make the calculation, uh, you shouldn't buy it.

我的意思是，这件事应该明显到，你根本不用精确算到百分之零点几，或者百分之零点零几。

I mean, it should be so obvious that you don't have to carry it out to tenths of a percent or hundredths of a percent.

它应该一眼就冲你喊出来。

It should scream at you.

所以，如果你真的还得拿计算器去算，到底贴现率是百分之九点六还是百分之九点八，那整个练习就干脆别做了。

So, if you really need a calculator to figure out that it's— the discount rate is 9.6% instead of 9.8%, forget about the whole exercise.

直接去找那种一眼就冲你大喊“选我”的机会。

Just go on to something that shouts at you.

基本上，我们看每一门生意都是用这种方式。

And essentially, we look at every business that way.

不过你说得对，我们不会——我们不会坐下来拿着 spreadsheets 把那一套全算一遍。

But we— you're right, we do not make— we do not sit down with spreadsheets and do all that sort of thing.

我们就是看到一个我们看得懂、而且明显比周围其他东西都更好的机会。

We just see something that obviously is better than anything else around that we understand.

然后，呃，我们就行动。

And, uh, and then we act.

还有，呃，Charlie，你想补充一下吗？

And, uh, Charlie, you want to add to that?

M32:47

嗯，我还想再往前说一步。

Well, I'd go further.

我会说，我见过一些最糟糕的商业决策，恰恰就是那种做了大量正式预测、再把现金流贴现回来的决策。

I'd say some of the worst business decisions I've ever seen are those that are done with a lot of formal projections and discounts back.

呃，Shell Oil Company 当年收购 Belridge Oil Company 的时候就是这么干的，他们让一大堆工程师做了一大堆非常复杂的数字模型。

Uh, Shell Oil Company did that when they bought the Belridge Oil Company, and they had all these engineers make all these elaborate figures.

这里面的问题在于，到最后你会开始相信那些数字。

And the trouble with that is you get to believe the figures.

而且，呃，看起来好像更高深的数学、再加上那种虚假的精确性，会对你有帮助，但其实并不会。

And, uh, and it, it seems that the higher mathematics with more false precision should help you, but it, it doesn't.

它——它——它的效果，平均下来是负面的；如果你试图把这件事正式化到你说的那种程度，结果反而更糟。

It, it, it— the effects, averaged out, are negative when you try and, uh, formalize it to the degree you're talking about it.

business school 里之所以这么教，是因为，嗯，他们总得教点什么。

They do that in business schools because, well, they've got to do something.

M23:39

这话很有道理。

There's a lot of truth to that.

我的意思是，如果你站在课堂前面，只跟学生说，手里的一只鸟胜过树丛里的两只鸟，你知道，你是拿不到 tenure 的。

I mean, if you stand up in front of a class and you say, a bird in the hand is worth 2 in the bush, you know, you're not going to get tenure.

所以如果你身在这个“神职体系”里，至少看起来得比你传道的对象懂得多得多，这就非常重要。

So it's very important if you're in the priesthood to look at least like you know a whole lot more than the people you're preaching to.

如果你走出来，或者说——如果你是个牧师，你只是把 Ten Commandments 一发下来，然后说，就这些，大家回家吧。

And if you, if you come down and just— if you're a priest and you just hand down the Ten Commandments and you say, this is it, and we'll all go home.

你知道，这可不是在这个世界上往上走的办法。

You know, you— it just isn't the way to progress in the world.

所以，呃，那种虚假的精确性——比如说这是一个两倍标准差事件，或者这是一个三倍标准差事件，因此我们能承受这么多风险，诸如此类——完全是疯了。

So, uh, the false precision that goes into saying this is a 2-standard-deviation event, or this is a 3-standard-deviation event, and therefore we can afford to take this much risk and all that— it's totally crazy.

我的意思是，一九九八年的 Long-Term Capital Management，你们都看到了。

I mean, you saw it with Long-Term Capital Management in 1998.

这种事你已经一次又一次、一次又一次地看到了，而且它偏偏只会发生在高 IQ 的人身上。

You've seen it time and time and time again, and it only happens to people with high IQs.

你知道，你们这些——IQ 只有一百二十的人，反而都很安全。

You know, those of you who are— have 120 IQs are all safe.

但如果你 IQ 非常高，又学了一大堆这种东西，你就会觉得自己非用不可。

But if you have a very high IQ and you've learned all this stuff, you know, you feel you have to use it.

可是市场不是这么运行的。

And, and the markets are not that way.

就像去年九月中旬的市场，当时那些掌管巨大机构的人都在发愁，下一周的 funding 到底要怎么拿到。

The markets of mid-September last year, when people who ran huge institutions were wondering how they were going to get funding the next week.

你知道，这种情况不会出现在——你没法算出它对应的是多少个标准差。

You know, that doesn't appear on a— you can't calculate the standard deviation that that arises at.

在这种由人构成的市场里——人会恐惧，也会贪婪，呃，而且就结果分布来说，他们并不会遵守抛硬币那种规律——这种事发生的频率会比人们想的高得多。

It's going to arise much more often than people think in markets that are made by people that get scared and get greedy, uh, and they don't observe the laws of flipping coins, uh, in terms of the distribution of results.

所以，认为数学，呃，能让你在投资上走得很远，这是个非常严重的错误。

And it's, it's a terrible mistake to think that mathematics, uh, will take you a long place in investing.

你得理解数学的某些方面，但你不需要懂高等数学。

You have to understand certain aspects of mathematics, but you don't have to understand higher mathematics.

而且更高深的数学其实可能是危险的，它会把你带到一些岔路上去。

And higher mathematics may actually be dangerous, and it will lead you down pathways.